February 3, 2013
November 14, 2012
There really are just two options here, and which one really depends on how the v sees you.
1) Medium holding doesn't want action (maybe as low as 55, or 66 through to about 99 or TT, KJ, AT, etc, etc). He would play this if he thinks you're tight. Everything of higher value would be a flat or 3-bet and see a flop.
2) The absolute nuts (KK, AA, maybe QQ). He would play this way if he thinks that you're a solid player with a good feel for the game. He would therefore know that you know he wouldn't play this way with a nutted hand, and therefore you're more likely to call. It's only really second level thinking, so its not like this is really all that far out there. If we really wanted to, we could play this back on a third and fourth level thinking, but I expect we're just leveling ourselves at that point.
But in the end, once you put it through ICM, I expect it'll come out as a fold…
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
Juni0r83 said:
2) The absolute nuts (KK, AA, maybe QQ). He would play this way if he thinks that you're a solid player with a good feel for the game. He would therefore know that you know he wouldn't play this way with a nutted hand, and therefore you're more likely to call. It's only really second level thinking, so its not like this is really all that far out there. If we really wanted to, we could play this back on a third and fourth level thinking, but I expect we're just leveling ourselves at that point.
I want to point out a flaw in this thinking, in case people try to use this. What you are claiming here is that he is trying to take the top of his range and disgusise it as the middle of his range(your 1st point). The problem is if you do this, you are not making a big enough jump(hence why majority of the time Ia ragne is balanced with nuts/air). Nobody expects the guy to be bluffing, so adding the top of your range in this spot isnt gaining you value, and will 90% of the time cost you a decent amount of value.
This is becuase the hands you are getting called by are great hands, that a majority of the time will be getting it in with you anyway. The reason people shvoe ehre instead of 3 betting their medium hands is because they want to eliminate some of the light playbacks and the calls pre that make playing OOP hard(moreso that they are just uncomfortable playing it post OOP).
The hands you ae getting to call this shove are effectively 99+,AK for a lot of people, and you are getting those in anyways as they are likely 4 betting on you if you squeeze.
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November 14, 2012
CCuster 911 said:
Juni0r83 said:
2) The absolute nuts (KK, AA, maybe QQ). He would play this way if he thinks that you're a solid player with a good feel for the game. He would therefore know that you know he wouldn't play this way with a nutted hand, and therefore you're more likely to call. It's only really second level thinking, so its not like this is really all that far out there. If we really wanted to, we could play this back on a third and fourth level thinking, but I expect we're just leveling ourselves at that point.
I want to point out a flaw in this thinking, in case people try to use this. What you are claiming here is that he is trying to take the top of his range and disgusise it as the middle of his range(your 1st point). The problem is if you do this, you are not making a big enough jump(hence why majority of the time Ia ragne is balanced with nuts/air). Nobody expects the guy to be bluffing, so adding the top of your range in this spot isnt gaining you value, and will 90% of the time cost you a decent amount of value.
This is becuase the hands you are getting called by are great hands, that a majority of the time will be getting it in with you anyway. The reason people shvoe ehre instead of 3 betting their medium hands is because they want to eliminate some of the light playbacks and the calls pre that make playing OOP hard(moreso that they are just uncomfortable playing it post OOP).
The hands you ae getting to call this shove are effectively 99+,AK for a lot of people, and you are getting those in anyways as they are likely 4 betting on you if you squeeze.
I see your point, and I would like to add, I wouldn't advocate this line with your nutted hands, just that there are players out there who do play like this, so it's always worth thinking about.
May 24, 2013
I don't know if his range here is necessarily as strong as everyone is saying. It really depends on what type of player he is, so it's hard to comment. But the fact that this is the bubble and your stats are so loose make this look like a really nice squeeze spot. If he's a good observant player, he could be doing this with as little as 55+, Ax. On the other hand, he could be a nit that just plays his cards and doesn't pay attention to your opening range. This is a $109 though, so I'd imagine a lot of guys are squeezing pretty light on the bubble. Against a good thinking player, I would seriously consider calling here. But maybe I'm just nuts.
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