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June 2, 2013
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Hi TPE!
I had a big pot yesterday, i find it completely weird actually:
9 handed table, 3 folds, i mini raise QQ from 100bb stack, got 3 calls (stacks from 30 to 50bb) and the SB goes all in for 80bb stack (no info yet), here is what makes the decision weird for me: we had almost 50minutes of late reg yet, if I lose the all in I would have 20bb stack left, at this point reenter the game would get me 15bb, it was a 12min structure blinds on WPN.
What is your thougths on this hand?
September 3, 2018
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Without knowing how SB plays, it is difficult to answer. Is he a good player or spewy. I’m going to guess he’s not a great player since an 80BB shove seems strange to me.
What hand would a good player jam 80 BB? If he had AA or KK I’d think he’d re-raise not jam. Even AK I think should re-raise not jam 80BB. Anything else you are way ahead of. So if he is a good player, I can’t imagine what hand he’d jam 80BB. His line makes no sense to me.
So let’s assume he’s not a good player. I still think a bad player would want to re-raise with AA or KK rather than jam 80BB and blow everyone off their hand. If you have AA you want action not folds. If he’s really bad I suppose you could make an argument that he looks down at aces and gets so excited that he jams, but I don’t think this is as likely as him looking at AKs, AKo or AQs, doesn’t want to make a decision postflop if he misses and makes the insane 80BB jam. It’s still a bad line, but I suppose a really bad player might think this way.
So in order of likelihood I’d guess he has:
Most likely: AKs, AKo or AQs
Next most likely: JJ, TT
Next most likely: AA or KK
Next most likely: QQ (but you have QQ so not real likely)
Next most likely: Total insanity 80BB shove with something less than the above
Based upon this I think it is a call for you in which I think you are flipping (with you a very small favorite) or you’re ahead. I just find it difficult to believe he is so averse to action with AA or KK that he 80BB shoves. I would be more concerned about AA or KK if he just put in a healthy raise (although I probably/definitely still would not fold in that case with QQ).
Again, I am answering this in a vacuum. I don’t know how SB has been playing. Unless he has been a completely nitty rock who only plays QQ, KK and AA and then massively 80 BB shoves (which seems unlikely) I don’t think his line makes sense for AA or KK in which case it’s a call for you in my opinion.
November 28, 2015
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If I had to guess, I’d say the SB made a mistake in typing a reraise and accidentally jammed. That’s happened to me before where I typed in a 3-bet raise but accidentally hit one extra number which made the total amount larger than my stack size. Of course I hit enter before realizing the error. I had pkt KKs. Surprisingly I had two people call me. That’s a tough decision for any one. Me personally, I think I might be able to fold here because of the amount of variance with such a large stack size. Just doesn’t seem worth it.
September 3, 2018
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I will now look at this from a different viewpoint. I just recently subscribed to Snapshove pro. I’m new at using this so forgive me if I use it wrong.
When I plug in your min raise after 3 folds, I looked at what range SB can profitably shove. Keep in mind though, that I can only program SB shoving with 35 BB. It doesn’t allow me to plug in an 80 BB shove (probably since why would anyone ever do it). It says that if your opening range and calling range is normal (20%/9%) his range for shoving a 35 BB stack is 88+, AJS+ and AQo+. If your opening range and calling range is tight (14%/7%) his range for shoving a 35 BB stack is TT+, AQs+, AKo. If your opening range and calling range is loose (30%/11%) his range for shoving is 77+, ATs+, AJo+.
In my opinion, that would seemingly indicate that your QQ is calling if you were calling for 35BB. That said, villain is probably not making a range-based decision if he is making an 80BB jam.
80BB-100BB can’t be calculated on Snapshove.
September 3, 2018
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If villain’s 3bet had been a normal size I’d never be folding. The fact that it is such a massive overbet is what makes this hand so peculiar. The sizing seems so wrong that it is almost impossible to put him on a range. It seems like terrible sizing no matter what he has, so how do you get inside his head to know what it means?
November 28, 2015
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rppoker said
The sizing seems so wrong that it is almost impossible to put him on a range. It seems like terrible sizing no matter what he has, so how do you get inside his head to know what it means?
I think in this particular situation, we can give him a few different ranges but regardless of what those ranges are I don’t think we should call. We are just way to deep for this call to be good. I think stack sizes are extremely important here, and I don’t think we should overlook that (I’m saying that you are, I am just saying in general).
Let’s look at this range: TT+,AQs+,AKo it’s roughly a 4% range and against this range we are only winning ~52% of the time.
Now, let’s look at a 6.6% range: 99+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+. Against this range we are only winning 60% of the time.
Rppoker, check the shove range of UTG @25bb. It’s pretty tight. with 80bb, we might as well range them at AA or KK and just fold.
Even if we range this player wider than any of those ranges, it doesn’t matter, because we don’t ever know for sure what their 80bb shove means. One thing is for sure, it’s absurd. This is where I think stack size comes into play. It’s 80bb effective. I think we should find a better spot to risk our tournament. I know QQ is a nice hand, but it’s not that nice IMO.
July 24, 2018
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I think Maniac has it all correct here. Obviously Villain is doing something stupid, we just don’t know which stupid it is.
My experience is that this particular kind of stupid is mostly just AA…fearing a 3 bet gets called in 4 places, and having no idea how to proceed post flop (AA is a tough hand to play 5 ways). If he did this with TT-JJ, well we just missed a great spot, but that is too bad.
September 3, 2018
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You guys are right. I’m wrong. Trying to use ranges here is an effort in futility. It’s a bat-sh*t crazy bet no matter what he has. If he has AA or KK we are dominated. If he has AK we are flipping. If he has JJ or TT we dominate him but that seems less likely than him having AA or KK. We have way too many BBs to stick it all in wondering which side of crazy the bet is. You have me convinced.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Maniackid11 said
I think in this particular situation, we can give him a few different ranges but regardless of what those ranges are I don’t think we should call. We are just way to deep for this call to be good. I think stack sizes are extremely important here, and I don’t think we should overlook that (I’m saying that you are, I am just saying in general).
Let’s look at this range: TT+,AQs+,AKo it’s roughly a 4% range and against this range we are only winning ~52% of the time.
Now, let’s look at a 6.6% range: 99+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+. Against this range we are only winning 60% of the time.
Rppoker, check the shove range of UTG @25bb. It’s pretty tight. with 80bb, we might as well range them at AA or KK and just fold.
Even if we range this player wider than any of those ranges, it doesn’t matter, because we don’t ever know for sure what their 80bb shove means. One thing is for sure, it’s absurd. This is where I think stack size comes into play. It’s 80bb effective. I think we should find a better spot to risk our tournament. I know QQ is a nice hand, but it’s not that nice IMO.
Good to see you doing some range work here. If either of the above ranges were correct, this would be a very clear and profitable call. Waiting for a better spot is not a relevant concept during the re-entry period.
November 28, 2015
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Foucault said
Good to see you doing some range work here. If either of the above ranges were correct, this would be a very clear and profitable call. Waiting for a better spot is not a relevant concept during the re-entry period.
I just don’t see how risking 80bb on a coin flip can be a clear call. Wouldn’t there be a ton of variance in this play? If we have 100bb at this point, and less than an hour left for players to re enter, it seems like we are getting closer to the Push/fold stages of this tournament with decent position. Why take such a high variance route? Normal re entry periods for tournaments on the WPN are anywhere between 3-5 hours long. So we are getting much closer to the end with less than an hour left to re enter.
**Also, against QQ+ and AK we only have 40% equity and KK+ and AK we have 39% equity. I think that in this situation we would be praying that he shows up with AK and the board comes all low cards. I don’t see the logic in shoving 80bb, let alone, with hands worse than this range.
July 24, 2018
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I think Andrew is talking about the ranges you outlined where you are a favorite. I would tend to think those ranges are far too wide for this sort of play; my experience with these ‘scared’ raises are its always one of the three types of hands:
1. AA-KK. Makes it an easy fold.
2. QQ-JJ. Makes it an easy call.
3. AK. An easy call again, we need to take our 57-43 with a small overlay when we can, especially during a rebuy period.
That being said, I’d weight most Villains towards something like 70/15/15; and we strongly block 1/2 of the range we have the best edge against. One other thing; if this was an especially strong field, or a tough table that wasn’t breaking soon, I’d be more inclined to gamble.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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That’s right, 3. I’m not necessarily saying this is a call, but against the ranges that Maniac listed, it’s a call. Even a 50/50 would be a call, because there’s already money in the pot, so you don’t even need 50% equity to get it in. This is all explained in my Getting Off on the Right Foot series.
Yes, it is high variance. Poker tournaments are high variance. It’s not something you can run away from. If you’re allowed to rebuy, then there’s no reason to value stack preservation over making +EV calls.
Here’s another way to think about it: Folding is also high variance. You are hoping that you’ll get lucky by running into good hands/favorable situations before you run into bad ones. You make money by taking +EV spots. The chips you accumulate (on average, of course plenty of times you lose chips) from +EV wagers give you a buffer than enables you to weather other forms of negative variance, such as a bad beat, a cooler, or a stretch of bad cards.
You’re going to lose most tournaments you enter, that’s just a fact. Any preference you have for getting eliminated by, eg, blinding down and then shoving instead of taking a profitable “coin flip” early in a tournament is arbitrary and irrational if your goal is to maximize your EV. You’ve got to give yourself the best chance of winning that you can, and that’s going to require taking risks when you’re getting appropriately compensated for those risks, no matter what stage of the tournament you’re in. Repeatedly turning down little chunks of EV is kind of like lighting a $1 bill on fire every day for the rest of your life. It may not feel like much in the moment, but over time (especially when you consider that you could be making +EV investments with that dollar and compounding its value), you are costing yourself a small car.
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