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December 16, 2013
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I am a TPE member but have only watched about a dozen videos of my 1.5 year membership. I really enjoy the podcasts and get a lot out of hearing how the hand is dissected and evaluated.
This is my first hand that I am posting. Hopefully I can remember enough about it to stimulate some discussion and replies.
Its a $550 buy in multi-day major event. We are down to two tables playing short handed. I think there are 13 left, 7 here and 6 there. Our table has the extra player.
These are approx stack sizes and my player description:
Seat 1 $5.0 M (been playing tight, not mixing it up much. Pro w/$240K career earnings)
Seat 2 $2.9 M (button, seems like a cash game specialist but has been playing very well)
Seat 3 $4.2 M (World Class Pro with over $3.3 Mil in earnings)
Seat 4 $2.2 M (Me, a recreational player with some good successes)
Seat 5 $950K (villain, pro/$160K earned and I think he has a backer on the rail. I had not played with him the entire tourney till now but saw an earlier hand about 2 orbits earlier where he double up his shorter stack cold 4 bet shoving from the BB with AK to cripple out player 15. I didn’t have much history with him up to that point)
Seat 6 $2.0 M (amateur not putting himself into tight spots)
Seat 7 $ 3.8 M (amateur with $38K earned. Won big pot couple levels prior with KK over QQ)
I believe my image is as an unpredictable amateur but not getting out line. I feel I’ve adjusted during the tournament well verse the many professionals I’ve seen, but also have made some mistakes and got lucky to win some nice pots.
Blinds are $25/50K plus 5K ante. Pre-flop pot is $110K.
Early aggro seat 5 (about 950K) bets 115K, button comes along and I look down 78o in the BB. I defend and put in the extra $65K. Pot is $405K.
Flop is 9 5 4 two spades (I have none). I check my gutter draw. The bettor tosses out $150K. Button calls. Good implied odds to call for my gutter? Call $150K of $605K pot?
I call. Pot is now $855K.
Turn is a 10h. I check to evaluate, of course (so I thought at the time but maybe not?) Villain jams his remaining $695K. Button folds and I go into the tank with my Catholic school math to try to calculate odds and come up with about getting 2 to 1 on a double gutter (but actually opened ended but same) on a call. I still have about $1.3 Million left if I lose.
Odds to call to try to eliminate someone?
November 18, 2013
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Hi Luckydog. Welcome to the forums. Thanks for the interesting hand and congrats on the deep run. I'm curious who the pros are.
I don't mind the defending your blind wtih 87o when you are getting such good odds. On the flop, I think calling is your worst option. Fold >> raise > call. From a strict pot odds point of view, you have 4 outs, so the odds of hitting are 10:1 against. That means for it to be profitable to call $150K, you need to make $1.5 million when you hit. That means you have to get $900K in implied odds when you it. Two villains have shown some interest but since the original villain is aggro, his range should be pretty wide, meaning he doesn't often have a good enough second-best hand to pay you off.
On top of that, with the flush draw one of your outs is dirty. The 6
will cost you either by making one of your opponents a flush or by making them unwilling to call when they don't have spades. So instead of 10:1 for your gutter, your odds are closer to 13:1 for the non-spade gutter. That means you have to stack the guy when you hit. That's really optimisitc.
On the river, you now have 8 outs (assuming v1 doesn't have 2 spades). You need about 4.75:1. You are getting much less than that. On top of that, in tournaments, chips lost are more valuable than chips won. This means in close decisions you should default to folding.
Let's say it's one of the best-case scenarios for you, villain turns over his hand and it's A5
giving you extra outs by letting you win with an 8 or 7. Here you have 14 outs. Odds of hitting now are 2.3 to 1. 2.3*695K is 1.6 million. The pot is 1.5 million. It's mathematically still a fold, although I can see benefit in taking a chance to knock out an aggro that probably has a skill advantage over you.
I'd be interested in what other members woudl think of a check/raise bluff here with so little actual equity. In theory, if you raise the fop to 400K it needs to only work 40% of the time. With the ICM pressure and your ability to leverage it's worth consideration.
December 16, 2013
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Thanks for breaking down the numbers. I’m thinking my best play would probably be to lead out on the turn. I may have been able to have him fold before getting a chance to make a play at the pot.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Actually I think your best play is most likely to fold the flop. Raising could be an option as well, but calling with a very weak draw is usually the worst choice. I think that in general you should change the way you think about and play draws. Your main objective, when you had a draw, shouldn't be to try to improve it to a made hand and then put money in the pot. You should look at draws as good bluffing hands, with the potential to improve functioning as a backup plan if the bluff doesn't succeed. Many draws are not worth playing unless they can be played aggressively. Clubber did a nice job of explaining all the things that can go wrong with this one.
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