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Big hand at the Winstar Tournament
halagha
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November 14, 2019 - 11:11 am
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I had a great run at the Winstar Tournament in September, ultimately finishing 28th out of about 1,350 players.  I was the chip leader with about 50 left but one hand derailed my chances of a final table run and I’m sure I played it badly on a few streets … so wanted to get some input from you folks.  Here’s the hand as reported by Pokernews.com:

https://www.pokernews.com/tours/winstar/2019-winstar-labor-day-river-poker-series/main-event/chips.312349.htm

I’m interested in your thoughts about what hand I would play this way.  Thank you all in advance!

 

Sam Alagha

The Riceman
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November 15, 2019 - 2:09 am
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What was your holding? Its difficult to know if you played it correctly without knowing your cards!

halagha
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November 15, 2019 - 11:50 am
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The Riceman said
What was your holding? Its difficult to know if you played it correctly without knowing your cards!  

I thought you may ask.  I had 10-J off.  Admittedly a wide open but I was playing pretty aggressively all tourney and it was working.  So, here are my questions: 1) should I be check calling the flop?  I think this betting flop was a mistake, and 2) was it a big mistake to call the turn as opposed to folding?  

Thanks

DuckinDaDeck
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November 15, 2019 - 1:38 pm
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Depending on what they mean by middle position, opening JTo could be reasonable or very loose. UTG+2 is often called MP and I think even UTG+3 would be borderline. Three players can still take position on you, and JT is in pretty rough shape vs. any reasonable flatting range. I think it’s fine, but marginal opens like this add more variance to your strategy, which becomes less desirable as ICM pressure increases. With a stack of ~50-60bb, I think I’d be folding JTo before the HJ unless at least two of the following are true:

– BTN is nitty

– one of the blinds is fishy

– the players left to act don’t 3bet very often

– we cover everyone behind us and no more than one player has <=25bb

I like a c-bet if we’re heads up but it’s pretty questionable OOP in a 3-way pot. There are some decent value targets but we’re never looking to play a large pot unless we make our straight on a non-spade. Although protecting our hand has value on similar boards, a lot of the overcard hands that we’d like to fold out have gutshots on J98 and, regardless, the value of protection really pales in comparison to pot control when we’ve got a marginal top pair + an OESD that can’t make the nuts. I strongly prefer a check-call and would probably fold if there was a bet and raise after I checked.

As played, we’re obviously never folding to the small flop raise. I think the turn is close but probably a check/fold. The main problem I see is that 1-card straights offer little in the way of implied odds.

If I’m reading the hand right, we’re facing a bet of 275k into a pot of ~500k. We’d need 26.2% equity to justify a call based on chipEV, but I’d want to add at least some risk premium at this stage of the tournament. If we’re looking for 30% equity, we need to beat a significant portion of the villain’s range without making our straight, and that doesn’t seem very realistic when we also need to consider reverse implied odds and the prospect of occasionally folding the best hand to a river bet.

halagha
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November 15, 2019 - 2:15 pm
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Thank you for your thoughtful response.  As I recall, I was UTG+2.  I agree the open is wide.  I had been getting away with opening wide and then getting folds to my C-bets throughout the tournament.  Nevertheless, should have folded here.

The players left certainly did not 3bet often at all; usually opting to call with AJ or AQ hands or medium pairs.  So I had Alex Fitzgerald in my head telling me to “keep raising if they’re not 3betting you.” smile

I agree that check-calling the flop would have been the right play here; not sure why I led out, frankly.  I guess I gave the others a lot of unpaired high hands and felt that I should lead out for protection on a coordinated board.  

The turn call is where I have lost some sleep over.  Your explanation was perhaps too kind to my loose call on the turn.  I kinda feel I compounded my possible pre-flop mistake and definite flop mistake by calling with pretty much only an open-ended draw at this point.  

I don’t have PIO but would love to know what PIO would say about it.  

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