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big bluff otr or check it back?
folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
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December 10, 2014 - 10:34 pm
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#Game No : 701281848

***** 888poker Hand History for Game 701281848 *****

$600/$1,200 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***

Tournament #64241031 $5 + $0.50 – Table #17 9 Max (Real Money)

Seat 5 is the button

Total number of players : 7

Seat 1: 123snoopy123 ( $26,539 )

Seat 2: lefthande ( $39,010 )

Seat 3: jumalix ( $48,677 )

Seat 4: Y777jrm ( $108,371 )

Seat 5: london_ace ( $31,071 )

Seat 7: MilenkoK ( $58,900 )

Seat 9: AMbal4eGG ( $107,087 )

london_ace posts ante [$150]

Y777jrm posts ante [$150]

AMbal4eGG posts ante [$150]

MilenkoK posts ante [$150]

123snoopy123 posts ante [$150]

lefthande posts ante [$150]

jumalix posts ante [$150]

MilenkoK posts small blind [$600]

AMbal4eGG posts big blind [$1,200]

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to london_ace [ 9spade, 8spade ]

123snoopy123 folds

lefthande folds

jumalix folds

Y777jrm folds

london_ace calls [$1,200]

MilenkoK folds

AMbal4eGG checks

** Dealing flop ** [ Qheart, Qspade, Jspade ]

AMbal4eGG checks

london_ace bets [$2,025]

AMbal4eGG calls [$2,025]

** Dealing turn ** [ 8club ]

AMbal4eGG checks

london_ace bets [$3,000]

AMbal4eGG calls [$3,000]

** Dealing river ** [ 5heart ]

AMbal4eGG checks

london_ace ???

 

Hey,

 

Reads , v is an aggressive opponent , they've 3-bet a good few times which they folded to hero's 4-bet shove.

 

I really think shoving river is good here , i think it's unlikely v has a hands like trips Q. There range from the bb is really wide thats for sure , they could quite possibly have a hand like Jx or maybe a spade flush draw which they're floating with. 

 

I must say when i limped in pre it was mis click , just to let u guys know , i was gunna raise here pre.

nonsimplesimon
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December 10, 2014 - 10:56 pm
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what's up allinpockets? 🙂

I think if you had a psb left otr then yah I'd say shove it if you think he's the kind of player who would fold a J.  otherwise I think even if you bet big that card doesn't change much and if he's calling turn (after calling that big bet otf) he's likely not folding otr.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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December 10, 2014 - 11:25 pm
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Hey simon! hope all is good man 🙂

 

on the river the total pot size is $14,100 

 

so in terms of spr that's just over 1 aint it? 

 

Hero has $24,000 behind.

FryBoy
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December 11, 2014 - 12:53 am
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You priced in the flush draw on the turn which to me makes his range a little wider than Jx and might include some lower pocket pairs . If this was me I would call with a J in his spot as the turn bet looks weak and a river shove just doesn't make sense (unless you have done something similar at this table). There arn't many hands in your range that would take this line. I would check fold.

Foucault

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December 11, 2014 - 5:06 pm
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I don't get what you're trying to accomplish with the turn bet.

ltcolumbo
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December 11, 2014 - 5:13 pm
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I like that question, but I ask the same about the flop bet.  You limped (albeit by accident), so if you want to VPIP wouldn't a check-raise be a stronger line?  I think on the lead you are only rep'ing a Q.  then, on the turn, I then ask the question again, why are you betting?  Just like on the flop lead, it looks like a Q or a bluff and when he calls the flop bet he is already sceptical of you having a Q.   (I think a J or a pair checks the turn nearly everytime.)

folding_aces_pre_yo
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December 11, 2014 - 8:19 pm
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@ columbo how can I c/r if im not OOP? lol 😛 

 

@ andrew ,  on the turn i'm pretty much trying to get V to fold Jx , some flush draws and hands like KT and T9s.

 

when v calls turn i think it's unlikely they've got a monster like Trips , i think villian would of probably c/r flop or at least lead out on the turn.

 

so when they call twice on a board thats pretty draw heavy it seemed weak.

 

the river is a good card for me  , so i'm thinking jam river to get a hand like AJ to fold.

ltcolumbo
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December 12, 2014 - 9:26 am
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@ columbo how can I c/r if im not OOP? lol 😛

OOPS.  Yup, missed that badly…  Ok, check-raise no work.  Then just read Foucalt post instead. 

Foucault

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December 12, 2014 - 12:42 pm
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:

@ columbo how can I c/r if im not OOP? lol 😛 

 

@ andrew ,  on the turn i'm pretty much trying to get V to fold Jx , some flush draws and hands like KT and T9s.

 

when v calls turn i think it's unlikely they've got a monster like Trips , i think villian would of probably c/r flop or at least lead out on the turn.

 

so when they call twice on a board thats pretty draw heavy it seemed weak.

 

the river is a good card for me  , so i'm thinking jam river to get a hand like AJ to fold.

Think I replied to another of your posts with a similar comment – you have to make a decision on the turn about when he will fold Jx. You can't say you're betting the turn to make him fold Jx, then when he calls decide that he probably still has Jx so you are going to bluff again. Basically I think your hand has too much SD value to bet the turn, and I think getting V off of Jx is optimistic. Basically you are hoping he makes a really exploitable fold with no actual evidence that he will, and if it turns out he doesn't, then you're losing a lot of money by trying to bluff with a hand that has a good chance of winning at SD.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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December 13, 2014 - 6:50 am
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yeah i can see checking it down to see showndown will be a good idea , i just don't think v will be folding any hands that is worse then mine.

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