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September 14, 2014
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#Game No : 464904948
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 464904948 *****
$125/$250 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***
Tournament #64578635 $10 + $1 – Table #25 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: RU.croc0dile ( $5,736 )
Seat 2: Zupple ( $5,632 )
Seat 3: henryotter7 ( $9,355 )
Seat 4: dizzypaul ( $24,125 )
Seat 5: 1TimeBaby ( $1,820 )
Seat 6: LooseBoi ( $8,053 )
Seat 7: london_ace ( $4,879 )
Seat 9: .znah. ( $20,219 )
Seat 10: chipkas ( $10,067 )
1TimeBaby posts ante [$25]
LooseBoi posts ante [$25]
london_ace posts ante [$25]
chipkas posts ante [$25]
RU.croc0dile posts ante [$25]
Zupple posts ante [$25]
henryotter7 posts ante [$25]
dizzypaul posts ante [$25]
.znah. posts ante [$25]
LooseBoi posts small blind [$125]
london_ace posts big blind [$250] [ 5
, 8
]
.znah. raises [$500]
chipkas folds
RU.croc0dile folds
Zupple folds
henryotter7 folds
dizzypaul folds
1TimeBaby folds
LooseBoi folds
london_ace calls [$250]
** Dealing flop ** [ K, A, 8
]
london_ace checks
.znah. bets [$675]
london_ace calls [$675]
** Dealing turn ** [ 6 ]
london_ace checks
.znah. checks
** Dealing river ** [ T]
london_ace bets [$3,679]
.znah. calls [$3,679]
Hey
not much reads apart from that he has been playing fairly tight , i've not seen them get involved much.
I was very disspointed when my bluff was called , I just want to how you guys would of played this hand?
Calling from the bb was fine , otf it seems pretty standard for v to make a c-bet , i decided to call and see what v does on the turn , v checks it back , which tells me a lot about their hand. It tells me it's very unlikely they'll be checking back an Ax type of hand , i pretty much discount their strongest part of their range which means they've only got marginal hands or air , i also think if they had a draw they'll bet these OTT.
their marginal hands i'd consider them to be 99/TT/JJ/QQ/KJ/KQ and those were my bluff targets.
on the river i decided to rip it , i was trying to represent the straight or a hand like AT , pretty much.
thoughts?
Hey man. I truly think you can fold this pre. No need to call pre at all really. Now I know theres a lot of stuff out there about defending your blind but this is not really a necessary spot imo with your stack size.
As played, what are you trying to represent? Your line is not believable at all. You are essentially throwing your whole stack in the middle with a hope and a prayer trying to represent a QJ here. On top of that you are trying to bluff someone who can easily afford it and therefore your FE is much less.
Check/raise on the flop is the most effective if you are truly going to decide to play this hand.
September 14, 2014
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hey , ty for the response, I usually would fold this hand pre, but my hand is irrlievent , i'm getting goog odds on the call, i tend to call very wide from the BB. Hands like T2o , I'd fold though lol.
January 28, 2013
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I think this is a fold pre also. This is unsuited and a 2-gapper. If you are correct in saying the villain is fairly tight we are doing really bad against his early position range and we wont be able to realise our equity without having to call multiple streets. Even then realising our equity with 58o isnt necessarily good as we dont particularly make strong hands.
EDIT: as for our line, hawkeye is right in that our line isnt believable and villain can quite confidently call this river with bottom of his range majority of the time: JJ, QQ, all his Kx and Ax as there is a missed fd. We really are representing QJ or a small Ax as we will most likely not be betting a Kx on this river. There are probably a lot better candidates to turn into a bluff here that have blockers to villains value range.
December 24, 2013
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I definitely think this is a call pre. You're getting 4.4 to 1, needing to realize just 18.5% equity for this to be better than folding. Even giving villain a tight range of 88+ AJ+, villain is probably bet/folding too much on a ton of flop textures (cbetting his overcard air for instance) , or will be the type to let you see turn a lot when he misses when he has big cards that whiff. Even preflop, youre full board equity is 26% against that range, a 7.5% difference. Putting that much in however, means you have to appropriately defend to his cbets still, otherwise you're just defending a ton and check/folding too much. This board however, is pretty bad to do anything about.
September 14, 2014
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some interesting posts , cheers all 🙂
@ jacob , how did u get that answer 18.5% equity?
January 28, 2013
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Jacob got 18.5% equity by 4.4:1. The mathematical equation is 1 / (4.4 + 1) to turn the ratio into a percentage.
I think Jacob is grossly overestimating how much equity our hand is going to realise here. As he mentioned our full board equity is 26% but this is only when we see 5 cards without additional bets. Against a tight player with a tight EP range we are not going to be realising our equity nearlly as often as we need to.
58o flops really badly majority of the time. 58o flops top pair+ only 8.04% of the time and even when we have top pair we are not happy calling multiple streets because of the amount of overcards that hit the board. When we are to check raise top pair on some boards we are only getting called by better and not getting enough value for the times he floats in position and takes it down/hits his outs. 58o flops middle pair 14.5% of the time and again, this is not a hand we want to be calling down multiple streets with against a tight player with a tight opening range.
With the draw part of our range 58o does flop an OESD or gutshot 19%, however some of these draws will be to the low end of the straight and we will not want to be continuing. In addition, we flop a combo draw only 3.44% of the time (pair + gutshot, pair + OESD etc etc)
I disagree as to the villain letting us see a turn for free when he misses. Villain has position and even the weakest of villains understand c-betting and position.
I also disagree to the villain bet/folding too often. With a tight range such as 88+, AJo+, ATs+, KQo+, KQs villain has a hand he can continue with a whopping 87% of the time, even if we were to check/raise on some boards or donk barrel etc he can easily continue with a massive portion of his range.
December 24, 2013
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clarification:
I meant the giving you a free turn when he misses as an option between two player types. One who will bet with their entire range because it’s a tight range with midpair+ and then the two big cards. That one, in my head, will bet and fold to a check/shove too often (its hard to believe they’ll bet/call AT high or KQ high for value on a 9xx or 482), and that’s 62% of the range you gave. If you check/shove vs a cbet around the size of the open, you need a 70% success rate, or 30% folds. I mean, that’s close if they bet/fold the high cards. Now what about 88 in this spot? If you’ve been a fairly tight player or aren’t known by your opponents to be out of line or anything, I think those combos are tough to find a hero call. If you add those, in that particular spot they fold like 67.3% of the time. My point is, we’re not necessarily trying to realize equity with our actual hand when the villain folds too often, and in a flop like I described, they probably do fold too often. We’re trying to realize more than 18.5% equity with our range, and anything that can realize more than that is doing better than folding in a vacuum. Outside of a vacuum, it depends on what kinds of spots you get otherwise, but really I’m not convinced (this is almost all due to my being unsure how many flops are being cbet/folded) You included overcards in the filter to hit 87.6% of the time. Villain won’t be able to continue with those to a check raise all in. You included pocket pair below top pair. Villain will have a tough time calling a check/shove if youre not crazy.Take out those two and the range that hits drops to 45%.
Now if villain is the type to play pot controlly when he misses on boards that appear to hit your range but missed him like 679 (ignore wed have the 2nd nuts with our particular hand and think more on our range), he’ll give you a free turn, so you see 4 of the 5 cards to realizing your full equity. 18.5/25 is only 74%, so we need to see only 74% of our fold board equity to break even, or find money elsewhere. The elsewhere in my mind is flops that theyll bet/fold too often. I think good boards that will get bet/folded on too often are dry K-J high boards, maybe dry Ace highs but that doesnt look right as he’ll have top pair 55%ish. but really, are you resisting a cbet with AJ on a dry uncoordinated board?
I guess my next question would be what % of flops can we check/shove? What % of flops are dry uncoordinated where AT+ and KQ inevitably bet and then have to decide to call or fold with just overcards. We’re not looking to make 2nd pair and check/call all the way down if we can make money elsewhere.
Man, I’m tired. This is fun. Thanks for posting stuff with flopzilla and stuff. I need to buy it. btw, 58o hits the board like 45% of the time when you include the draws. Even if you check/shove when you have bottom pair (on most of those boards, anyway) you’re still semibluffing against the pocket pairs below top pair while still having 5 outs to outdraw.
September 14, 2014
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@kalculater , nice 1 man.
This is a tough one guys , the odds saying call but at the same time we’re doing pretty bad against a tight opening range. I guess we can pass up good odds from time to time though , so i’m not saying folding pre is terrible either. It’s not like we have to defend our big blind every single time.
I think what the most important is though the opponent that you’l be playing against , if he’s weak then maybe calling can be good , for instance he might be the type of player that c-bet flops and c/f a lot of turns even IP , not all players tend to double/triple barrel. some give up easier then others. We may have good post flop skills so we may decide to c/r bluff flops and fold to a 3-bet shove, there’s obv way to play this hand profitably post flop too.
bad thing is what u mentioned in your post, how our hand does not improve often then not, for straights and stuff also villain knows we are very likely to be calling with a wide range from the big blind .
when we do c/c this flop , we have to think what the top/middle/bottom of our range looks like?
when i call the flop , i’d say the bottom of my range would be 66/77/ the middle part of my range would be hands like KT,KJ and the top of my range when calling flop would be A9s/ATs , as for A8s unlikely since i’ll be raising this on the flop.
September 14, 2014
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lol very nice post jacob , this is mad! haha
December 24, 2013
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I may be reading this information incorrectly, but we have greater than 25% equity on 45% of flops. We have greater than ~18% equity on what looks like close to 54% of boards.
January 28, 2013
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clarification:
I meant the giving you a free turn when he misses as an option between two player types. One who will bet with their entire range because it’s a tight range with midpair+ and then the two big cards. That one, in my head, will bet and fold to a check/shove too often (its hard to believe they’ll bet/call AT high or KQ high for value on a 9xx or 482), and that’s 62% of the range you gave.
ATo and KQo is not 62% of the range, its actually 19.09% (21 combos / 110 combos). Also the flops you mentioned flop a really miniscule percentage of the time, however I do see your argument that we can check/raise all in on flops that he is not going to call off. It really depends on the cbet sizing, his perception of your range on those boards and the odds he is being laid. Probably something I can quantify more accurately with CRev.
If you check/shove vs a cbet around the size of the open, you need a 70% success rate, or 30% folds. I mean, that’s close if they bet/fold the high cards.
Can you quantify this or show me how you came to these conclusions?
Now what about 88 in this spot? If you’ve been a fairly tight player or aren’t known by your opponents to be out of line or anything, I think those combos are tough to find a hero call. If you add those, in that particular spot they fold like 67.3% of the time. My point is, we’re not necessarily trying to realize equity with our actual hand when the villain folds too often, and in a flop like I described, they probably do fold too often.
88 is such a small portion of his range. We need to be thinking about hands in his range not a specific hand as we are playing against his whole range and not just knowing villain has 88. Not sure how you got 67.3% as 88 does not make up a huge portion of his range, can you outline your steps to this outcome?
If we are not necessarily trying to realize our equity why are we flatting? When you say this it moves into an exploitative play because he is folding too often and we need to have adamant reads this is true. Give me a cbet sizing and what you think villain bet/calls off with (top pair, 2pr, gutshot, OESD etc) and i can give u the exact amount of time he is calling off a bet/call.
We’re trying to realize more than 18.5% equity with our range, and anything that can realize more than that is doing better than folding in a vacuum. Outside of a vacuum, it depends on what kinds of spots you get otherwise, but really I’m not convinced (this is almost all due to my being unsure how many flops are being cbet/folded)
As above if you can give me what you think he bet/calls off with we can work out how often villain is bet/folding.
You included overcards in the filter to hit 87.6% of the time. Villain won’t be able to continue with those to a check raise all in. You included pocket pair below top pair. Villain will have a tough time calling a check/shove if youre not crazy.Take out those two and the range that hits drops to 45%.
It actually drops to 50% due to card removal effect. I did include flushdraws and nut fd with 1 card in this howerver as villain will be betting these. Without these it is 48.8% (see the 1st image versus the 2nd image below)
Now if villain is the type to play pot controlly when he misses on boards that appear to hit your range but missed him like 679 (ignore wed have the 2nd nuts with our particular hand and think more on our range), he’ll give you a free turn, so you see 4 of the 5 cards to realizing your full equity. 18.5/25 is only 74%, so we need to see only 74% of our fold board equity to break even, or find money elsewhere. The elsewhere in my mind is flops that theyll bet/fold too often. I think good boards that will get bet/folded on too often are dry K-J high boards, maybe dry Ace highs but that doesnt look right as he’ll have top pair 55%ish. but really, are you resisting a cbet with AJ on a dry uncoordinated board?
Not sure where you are getting these numbers from but these boards dont flop as often as you think. And even so, flopzilla takes these into account as it is on every conceivable board (hence flopping gutshot x% of time etc).
I guess my next question would be what % of flops can we check/shove? What % of flops are dry uncoordinated where AT+ and KQ inevitably bet and then have to decide to call or fold with just overcards. We’re not looking to make 2nd pair and check/call all the way down if we can make money elsewhere.
What would you be happy check/shoving? mid pair, flush draws etc? Use the below image of what 58o flops in this spot to let me know and I will show you how often we are check/shoving ‘happily’.
Man, I’m tired. This is fun. Thanks for posting stuff with flopzilla and stuff. I need to buy it. btw, 58o hits the board like 45% of the time when you include the draws. Even if you check/shove when you have bottom pair (on most of those boards, anyway) you’re still semibluffing against the pocket pairs below top pair while still having 5 outs to outdraw.
I agree it is fun, i love the in depth mathematical analysis of poker. Really appeals to me. As above, let me know what you would check/shove with and i can give you an exact percentage of the time we are doing that. Also having 5 outs (assuming an out does not help villains range) is not so great, we only get there ~20% of the time with 5 cards and we need decent FE in these spots to make it profitable.
I really recommend getting Cardrunners EV if you want to do these spots yourself as it can tell you these things flopzilla is within models, flopzilla is just a better visual representation of such things.
Long reply…
December 24, 2013
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i hate that i havent gone to bed still yet, but clarify lol- when i say AT and KQ, i mean AT-AK and KQ. i mean all high cards. you include Ace high in your range for continuing overall.
if i believe villain to open the range we described and cbetting 100%, i'd check/shove 55.56% of flops outright, (all draws, all pairs, any time we connect. you can see this by adding all the parts of our range, this of course loses when villain has pairs and wins when villain has high card (air). 5 outs is pretty significant when we're talking about something being close to profitable when we can tear our cards up when called. If we also check/shove flops that give
quantifying on the check/shoving success rate, we start with 4879. pot when we call is (500+500+125+25×9) = 1350. If villain cbets say 520, the pot is 1870. When we check/shove our remaining stack, we shove 4379 to win 6249 (1870+4379), needing 70% success. way past delirious at this point, so confused if he needs to fold 30% or 70% there, but when we have equity [anything more than 0% when called], we actually need less than whatever pot odds would suggest because the hand isnt' over just because we get called when we do get called. If we also check/shove the types of flops that are bad for villain's range overall, we pick up more equity when he mucks too often (bet/folding Ace high is a mistake if we're check/shoving a billion % wide. the correct thing to do would be bet/call air. but he won't do that. nobody will.) the spot you have right there has villain bet/folding around 50% of the time if cbets are 100% on 100% of flops.
December 11, 2013
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Hey Guys,
Really good posts itt. After reading through all your posts above, I had to run this spot in CREV. I decided to give villain a slightly wider opening range of 10.7% (142 combos).
Assuming villain cbets this spot 100% of the time on every flop with that range, and we use a simple strategy of check/shoving the following hands:
>= 1 pair
OESD
gutshot using 1 or more holecard
flushdraws using both holecards
nut flushdraw using one holecard
and fold all other hands to the cbet, and then villain bet/calls the following range folding all else:
>= top pair 3rd kicker
>= 3rd nut flushdraw using 2 holecards
OESD using both holecards
Our EV with the preflop call is -0.07 bb. This is with an equity preflop of 32.7% which is greater than the preflop equity given above assigned to the narrower opening range for our villain. If we change villain's range for calling the flop check/shove to only include made hands of strength TPTK+ then our EV preflop improves to 0.36.
If we decide to fold the bottom 15% of our range in the BB preflop, then 85o still just barely makes the cut for a call. Our EV preflop in this situation is -0.026bb when villain calls the check/shove with a wider range and +0.039bb when villain folds to our jam with a few more hands. In other words, this is super close and probably a fold pre.
What if we decide to defend 60% in this spot using the same simple strategy postflop? Our EV with the call pre only increases to 0.12bb!
What if we decide to check/raise flop smaller with some of our range and fold to a jam/call a jam sometimes? and just check/fold our complete misses? I'm just saying there are other ways to play the hand post and not just the simple check/fold or check/shove strategy I used in this sort of “toy game”. There may be other lines here that will make calling 85% preflop profitable, but given this simplistic analysis it's a fold pre.
This analyiss makes a ton of assumptions and simplifies the postflop game to assume we are always either check/folding or check/jamming flops. We still are deep enough to donk lead some spots, check/raise/fold flop, etc. etc. I'm very new to CREV and still learning it, trying to start with some simpler trees. I still think this means that we should be folding this hand pre, though.
October 9, 2014
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Pre; definitly a fold.
December 24, 2013
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came here to say i overslept by a good hour lol
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Thanks, Doug. I’m also somewhat new to CREV and may well have screwed this up, but I attempted a similar analysis and found that against a reasonably tight range from Villain it’s a close fold. I do think the bet-call you give Villain is pretty unrealistic (he’s making a huge mistake if he’s bet-folding middle pair when you’re shoving any pair and any draw, let alone bet-folding top pair with 4th kicker), and widening his calling range in this way decreases the profitability of Hero’s shove. Hero can probably also improve his results by being a bit more selective with shoves on certain flops (AXX is a particularly good one for Villain), though Villain can improve by checking back some hands that have the most to lose to a check-raise. But yeah, against a tight range played reasonably, it’s hard to flop enough equity to make pre-flop calls with junk. Playing against much wider ranges, such as those held by a button raiser, is a different story.
May 7, 2013
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TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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FWIW I don't think this is “right on the cusp” in the sense that 86o or J5o would be calls. I think quite a few hands are close folds here, simply because the equity and the ability to realize equity between these hands doesn't change much vs a tight range. I was surpised how few hands looked like profitable calls in the simplified ck/shove or ck/fold flop game I tried to implement with CREV. No hand was a huge money loser on the pre-flop call, but not a lot showed a profit. This was part of what made me think I may have made an error with my input.
December 24, 2013
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(oops lol)
85o has more than the minimum equity on more flops than 74o against that range. This makes sense, as there are a few more flops that favor 85o than there are that favor 74o. But I get what you're saying, that it doesn't matter vs the tight range. Going to explore this vs someone with a wider range later on…one that has far fewer than late position, but still bluffs that are clear raise/folds pre.
downloaded crev so i can stop doing this math by hand. i think i can buy it some time next week.
I'll try not to go crazy into it, but I think I want to look at players that will be willing to bet/fold 2nd pair, and I want to look at different board structures. I'm sure we can think of villain profiles who will do that at this stack size and have no reason to think hero will check/shove any piece. like say you have played tight and the guy has been shown to make tight folds. Stuff that probably shouldn't work but will. I think I mean I want to see if we can check/shove or check/raise off short stacks in certain spots that don't hit us but villain folds too much anyway. That way I can have like this one sort of tool that only comes out in very specific situations, but I'll know it incredibly detailed and will be able to occasionally print money. I've been watching and reading a lot of alex fitzgerald material lately, so that's where I'm coming from. I'm sure I misapply stuff, but that's sort of the thought process I'm coming off.
I'm really stoked this is a close fold because my intuition would say fold 84 and 74, so this little bit higher up being right on the cusp at least makes me feel like i have tuned that feeling in through practice. yay progress
December 24, 2013
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in case anyone wants to look at it.
here’s 85o vs 11% minimum equity on % of flops
…..;s=generic
here’s 74o vs 11% minimum equity on % of flops.
…..;s=generic
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