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Big bluff missed draw
GunnJD
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August 21, 2015 - 12:25 pm
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A $5 Bovada MTT. 

 

Felt a little impulsive in the moment on the river, this is how I would play Jx I think? 

 

May need some help on donking and other bet sizing.

 

PokerStars - $5+$0.50|150/300 Ante 30.00 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 3,340 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
CO: 4,020 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BTN: 23,472 (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 27)
SB: 6,030 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 5)
Hero (BB): 14,730
UTG: 14,501 (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 27)
UTG+1: 4,378 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 27)
MP: 9,385 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

8 players post ante of 30, SB posts SB 150, Hero posts BB 300

Pre Flop: (pot: 690) Hero has  Qdiamond 9diamond 

[color=red]UTG raises to 600[/color], fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 300

Flop: (1,590, 2 players)  2diamond Jspade Jdiamond 
[color=red]Hero bets 795[/color], UTG calls 795

Turn: (3,180, 2 players)  Tclub 
[color=red]Hero bets 1,444[/color], UTG calls 1,444

River: (6,068, 2 players)  2heart 
[color=red]Hero bets 6,068[/color], [color=red]UTG raises to 11,632 and is all-in[/color], fold, 
folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 21, 2015 - 2:38 pm
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pretty sure your flop bet is fine (could go a bit larger ), turn you're going to have to make it larger for sure , i'd say around $2500 (or more) to set up a nice river shove,  so total pot on the river now would be just over 8k. Another way to play this hand is to check back turn for a free card and bet river whether u get there or not. However i reckon the 3barrel is better,  to get v to fold maybe a hand like AA/KK/QQ/TT, think it's pretty difficult for v to call with those hands if you shoved river. Even betting river its dificult for those hands to call , though i do wonder what shows more strength, betting river or shoving? 

joelshitshow
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August 21, 2015 - 6:21 pm
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These are the hands that get me into trouble. Still learning how to deal with them.

 

I have a draw on the flop so I bet. I get more outs on the turn so I bet again. I've busted on the river so I try to steal.

 

At least you have an easy fold on the river. Throughout the hand, being out of position hurts here. The issue with the donk lead is you have no idea what your opponent has because all he does is call.

 

The way the hand has played out, I think he has to have JT.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 21, 2015 - 6:59 pm
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@EvilKermit , when v flats hero donk leads otf and turn that dont mean we cant figure out our opponents range just because he calls. I mean yeah being OOP we have less information however that don't mean we cant figure out their range.  villians range does seem marginal i.e pocket pairs,  when they just call flop and turn. Yes they may turn up with strong hands from time to time but i dont think they will that often. i just reckon they are highly discounted  as they would likely raise those on the turn. Though If they have a hand like AdiamondJheart they may decide to flat turn as they block combo's of diamonds or if they had JT for a boat.For the most part though i reckon villians range will consist more of marginal hands rather then monsters.

 

oo yeah getting a free card is not possible as hero is OOP , my bad lol.

joelshitshow
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August 22, 2015 - 11:03 am
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Indeed, I can still range my opponent when I donk. I can just range better if I check, provided I understand what different bet sizes mean.

 

In general, it's all so overwhelming. The micro approach (focusing on one concept at a time) has really helped me, as opposed to macro (trying to figure out everything all at once).

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 22, 2015 - 9:28 pm
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@EvilKermit, I do agree that you can range better when you check yeah. tbh i don't donk lead much , but i've been looking into it more lately. Donk leading can be good against straight forward players that tend to give up when they don't get a piece of the flop which is around 34% of the time, against more aggressive players donk leading is not a good idea. 

 

vs aggro players you're probably going to have to 3-bet flop when faced a raise and go for a double/triple barrel bluff , so higher variance right?  It's interesting though , because against aggro opponents we are going to need to construct value/bluffing range when we lead out flop. It would be rather exploitable if we were only going to lead out with our value hands.

 

An example yeah, an opponent (readless) raises it up from like EP/MP and the flop is like 4c7h8s and we call from the bb we could donk lead with a hand like KsJs , if the turn is say K we could bet for value again and re-evaluate river. Hero also has backdoor opportunities so we could barrel a lot of turns too. This is a good flop to donk lead , this flop is likely to hit our bb calling range rather then a ep/mp open.

 

now if we had a read that v is aggro , they may very well have a hand like  59s, 45s 76s, 78s, 56s, T9s TJs ect ect , so we may get floated more often then not or even raised to otf or ott. my question is if we think v range consist of draws and random bluffs, would 3-betting flop be a good idea with a hand like KJs? i don't think its that bad if we really do think their range consist of those hands we also could bet/shove a spade turn depending on effective stacks, Though I'd much rather prefer 3-betting a flush draw against an aggro opponent (if there was 2 suits down on the flop) rather then King high as then we do have more equity , which is kinda counterintuitive as our hand should not really matter if we think v range consist of draws and air , its not like v is going to call a 3-bet with their airballs! anyways i reckon it would be nice to have some back up equity just in case we are called , so yeah our hand does matter to a certain degree.

 

thoughts?

joelshitshow
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August 23, 2015 - 11:04 am
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I balance my range by donkleading draws as well, but there was another thread with Foucault that explained the negatives of doing so. I think a lot had to do with comparing flop texture to V's range to determine whether a donklead will achieve the desired result. It probably works better with V's who don't C-bet enough as well, especially with hands you would rather check-raise.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 23, 2015 - 11:09 am
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Totally yeah 🙂

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August 23, 2015 - 3:04 pm
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As others have said, sizing is the biggest issue here. You don't generally want such a dramatic difference between the % of pot you're betting on each street, no matter what your hand is. That said, I don't think this is a spot to have much of a donking range. There are so many good turn cards for your hand that you can just check and call. You may even have the best hand!

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 23, 2015 - 8:11 pm
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 i  really dont understand as to why we shoud not have a donking range in this spot t? Is it because if we are faced with a raise we have to fold a decent hand with good equity?

 

You also said that our hand may be good , against an UTG opener, that dont seem likely imo. If we do donk lead we can put a lot of pressure on v , if they have hands like AT/KT or overpairs..we also lose against k high and ace high..so i dont think we have much STD really.

florianm1
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August 24, 2015 - 7:11 am
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i think check/call flop and lead turns that improve our range.

 

i would lead all 8s, Ts, diamond, maybe Q

 

this one seems pretty interesting i gonna run it through pioSolver later for both villai nand hero.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 24, 2015 - 12:47 pm
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I'm assuming if we are going to c/c our draws on this flop should we also be c/c hands like KJ/J9/J8 or should we raising those? hero's value target would be an overpair like QQ/KK/AA and secondary value targets would be draws.

florianm1
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August 24, 2015 - 6:09 pm
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well so i am currently running this hand in pioSolver as it might be a good point to see how to play a draw OOP on a paired board:

atm i am too stupid to put gif in here and pio ranges look not so familiar.
so you have to click some links:

EP raising range: https://gyazo.com/cf8de8664b49f60d0f2ecc97e6b829da

BB defending range: https://gyazo.com/5c5e9e2df47bb8c7e7254456e89dfdf7 some 0.25 and 0.5 are raises or i am not sure if we call those or not

tree: https://gyazo.com/8e68540326ee648b6728d22551c666e0
basically i let the program do everything and allow all in at a certain threshold. i am also leaving the option to donk on all streets

looking at all our FDs it suggests to check almost all of them
https://gyazo.com/8d994e9f2c83ecab84b57ec9244e52bc

check calling Qd9d is about +457 +cEV and c/raising to 2.6k is +456 +cEV

as played on the turn checking and betting about half pot are still pretty equal (1020 to 1044) shoving is only 400 cEV

so basically it says that foucault is a GTO monster 😛

there are some very interesting things i learend looking at this hand in pioSolver.

unfortunately i am not gonna reveal them here

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 24, 2015 - 6:27 pm
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nice work 🙂

so there’s not much difference in cEV+ between c/c or c/r , both very close. I would of thought c/r would be better though as we at least have some fold equity when we raise. as for c/c it’s profitable for sure but its’ just that if we’re going to get a flop like this shouldnt we be trying to play our hand fast? so c/r flop and shove turn for instance?

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August 24, 2015 - 6:55 pm
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well, the problem here in this spot is that villain also plays GTO as analyzed. if we gii on flop its pretty much only trips+ here fro ma GTO point of view.

and GTO solutions do not like to fold too often 😀

 

there are flush draws we are check raising here even from a GTO point of view

 

what you point out is the benefit of knowing cloes to GTO plays as we can now deviate our strategy based on opponent.

 

for example we will show a high profit with a c/r on the flop vs a regular MTT player that does not know the check back

 

all things you can get from a HUD (trollmodus off) heartheartheartheart

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August 25, 2015 - 5:04 pm
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:

nice work 🙂

so there's not much difference in cEV+ between c/c or c/r , both very close. I would of thought c/r would be better though as we at least have some fold equity when we raise. as for c/c it's profitable for sure but its' just that if we're going to get a flop like this shouldnt we be trying to play our hand fast? so c/r flop and shove turn for instance?

First off, I misread the hand and thought we were dealing with a LP raise, you are right that Hero is pretty damn unlikely to win unimproved at showdown if he k/c flop.

The problem with c/r all of your flush draws is that you're in no position to balance this and will be exploited by opponents who either bet-call wide or who check back well (though, as others point out, this may be a good exploitive play vs opponents who c-bet too wide). Villain has a significant range advantage here as an UTG raiser, which is why Hero shouldn't be able to get away with a lot of check-raising and doesn't have a strong interest in donking.

K/c the flop doesn't have to mean forfeiting the opportunity to play aggressively. You can still bluff the river if the turn goes k/k, or k/r the turn.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 25, 2015 - 8:15 pm
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Nice post andrew. 

 

few questions i have for you, if thats okay 🙂

 

How wide do you think hero's bluffing range should be in this spot? I'd say a number 1 , from what i remember that's the best bluffing candidates like combo draws.

 

You said that the problem with c/r all your flush draws is that you're in no position to balance this. does that mean you dont have much of a c/r range here with your value hands like Jx as you're not c/r with your bluffs that often either? so basically you'll be c/c with your draws , and maybe c/r the turn with it just like you would do with your value hands. The thing is with your value hands you may  c/c flop and turn and lead out river which you may do with Q9dd. You may decide to make a modest bluff otr to get hands like KQss to fold, i mean a bet of 1/3 of the pot would only need to suceed 75% of the time for it to be profitable. hope that makes sense lol.

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