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September 1, 2014
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Setup: We are ITM in Big 8.8$. We are fairly new to the table and do not establish meaningful image. Villain is playing 19/16 over small sample of arround 100 hands.
We are making std open and villain 3b 2,5x. I can assume that his range is pretty narrow due to my UTG open (TT+, AKo, AQs+). My assumptions playing this hand is too peel flop and proceed with caution.
At low flop texture he is making 2x pot push. Imo relying on his bet sizing his range is leaning much more towards AQs,AKs,AKo and lower pocket pairs than higer pocket pairs.
Considering that there are more combinations of AK,AQ hands than pp like TT,JJ and the fact that I will be still arround 20bb deep whenever I lose this pot, I decide to call his shove here.
Any missing points ?
Thank you for attention
December 28, 2012
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I don't like flatting pre given a) how strong you perceive his range to be; b) effective stacks; and c) being OOP.
He has 50% more combos of overpairs (TT-AA) than he does AKo+AQs, by my reckoning.
I am inclined like yourself to weight him more towards whiffed overs when he makes this play on the flop, but I think we just level ourselves a tonne with the flat pre.
We are crushed by overpairs which comprise 60% of his range and the remaining 40% has 6 outs + the occasional backdoor flush.
September 1, 2014
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He has 50% more combos of overpairs (TT-AA) than he does AKo+AQs, by my reckoning.
correct !
good reasoning.
thanks for reply
September 1, 2014
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any other ideas ?
February 18, 2013
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He's 3bet your UTG raise with a 30BB stack – when you flat and the flop comes all low his shove smells of AA with the hope that you have an overpair to the board and call. AK may be in his range (less sure about AQ) but how often do you think he is overshoving this sort of flop with that hand, i.e. what is he hoping you will fold out that he can't get you to fold with a more normal cbet.
It's a good bet because in game my brain would scream bluff and my finger would have clicked the call button before the rest of my brain caught up and realised what he was doing, by which time I'd have seen his AA anyway lol
September 1, 2014
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First of all, thank you for your interest AI29.
However, I do not agree with your reasoning. Imo you put villain one level too high. He is not concerned about my holdings that much. His main idea is to protect his hand against any other scare cards. That sizing imo narrow his hand range to smallest of his pocker pairs and unimproved high cards, as there are not too many overcards to KK,AA so he is more likely to cbet them definitely smaller.
September 1, 2014
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Obviously, I will post hand result later on
February 18, 2013
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Hi BBaton
My concern here is that we've discounted him having smaller pocket pairs than your 9s, so by calling we are effectively coin flipping for a major chunk of our stack – unless we have a read that villian likes to 3 bet light then even putting him on a range of 50% unpaired cards versus 50% paired cards above your pair before the flop means we are willing to coin flip for 3/5 of our stack, as with only a 29 blind starting stack it's unlikely he's going to slow down when checked to in position?
You might be right that he is shoving pairs less than AA-QQ, but we can't rule out him doing this with AA sometimes? So lets say he does it with all his AKs and AKo, with 1010 and JJ, and 1/3 of his AA – that is 16 combos versus 14 weighted towards a bluff, against that range on the flop we are a 45.22% dog. Take out the AA altogether and we are a 47.56% dog.
So I guess on the flop a call to his shove is the right decision, but it's the preflop action we could think about some more? – we could look at his 3b % and his flop cbet%. If he 3b very light could we not be 4b PF? If his 3b is super tight could we fold PF? If his 3b is somewhere inbetween then what does his cbet% tell us? If he always barrels then could we call off on all non-scary boards, if it's 40-50% range then could we check/fold to his shove?
November 18, 2014
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That push doesn't really make a lot of sense to me at all but I'm putting him on JJ (completely random perception there) and so I'm folding.
This is just based on the fact you don't know anything at all about the guy and I'll rather conceed and make a note than go below 30BB. If he's outplayed me good for him.
AA, KK and QQ don't really make that much sense to me. With any of those we wouldn't want to kill the action with a push in that flop. He'll definitely just c-bet or check-induce but why would he ever push in that spot? For the extremly off chance that you have a smaller pair? Plus if that's what he thinks you have he'll just check and wait for you to make a move anyway.
A set doesn't make sense either because in such a dry board in a 3bet pot he'll probably slow play his sets and again he's not going to push with a made set.
That leaves us with 22, 33, 88+ and a hand like AK and maybe AQ which he may feel it's worth playing that way, you're not really ahead of that range except for 22 which I doubt he has. 33 and 88 are open ended, TT+ has you dominated and AK and AQ you're something like 65-35. For me that's a fold everytime, even if I feel he's outplayed me I don't think it's worth calling.
About the JJ the things is that is the only hand that I feel he may feel he wants to push as he's afraid of any over coming which hits your rank and he wants the hand over now, either by making you fold or by making you commit all your chips right there. I hadn't realized he's in position but even though he's got an ankward SPR for JJ to play at 1.7 so he may want to avoid a bad situation if he bets 1/2 pot (which commits him to the pot) and a Q, K or A hits so he just pushes.
The other option is he has complete air, but since I don't know anything about the gather I'd rather err on the side of caution.
September 1, 2014
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Al29, now I totally agree with your reasoning. Provide numbers make decision more intuitive. To simplify we are basically flipping for 3/5 of the stack at flop in small stakes weak field tournament with large edges.
One more thing to point out, I wrote earlier that we got only little history with villain so basically we are unable to check his 3b, fold to 4b ranges as well as cbet%.
Hi chaos,
like your flop reasoning besides too wide assigned preflop range. pocket pairs <TT are very unlikely. and btw 55 are open ended and 3's and 8's are gutterballs 😛
“since I don’t know anything about the gather I’d rather err on the side of caution”
good point
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