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Big $55 squeeze rip semi bluff
CAT70K
Grinding Micros
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January 19, 2013 - 5:25 am
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Poker Stars $50+$5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t125/t250 Blinds + t30 – 9 players – View hand 2070182
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

BTN: BB = 19.7, t4930
Hero (SB): BB = 26.4, t6591
BB: BB = 30.9, t7719
UTG: BB = 22.2, t5555
UTG+1: BB = 29.8, t7445
UTG+2: BB = 32.0, t7995
MP1: BB = 58.0, t14507
MP2: BB = 35.2, t8791
CO: BB = 27.3, t6816

Pre Flop: (t645) Hero is SB with 7 of diamonds 6 of diamonds
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t500, UTG+2 calls t500, 1 fold, MP2 calls t500, 2 folds, Hero raises to t6561 all in…..

 

UTG+1 is decent reg with 22% open from EP.

UTG+2 and MP2 are both fishy.

 

Thoughts?

Turbulence
Falkirk, Scotland
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
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January 19, 2013 - 9:05 am
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It's a high varience play but if you get it through then you add 25% to your stack. If you get called you should be in ok shape unless its by an overpair and I wouldnt be surprised if one of the fishier players turned up with 88 or 99 here. Assuming you have a decent sample size on UTG+1 then I would expect you to get folds from him 2/3 of the time as i think he is only calling with the top 6-7% of his range, and this is the person you most want to fold. Against his calling range you have 30% equity

 

Just against UTG+1: 66% you win 2145; 23% you lose 6591; 11% you win 14332 = this is a positive cEV play to the tune of 1487chips or approx 6bbs. You would then have to factor in the calling frequency and ranges of the other to players to get an aqurate cEV figure. You also have to consider wether you have a skill advantage over the table or not and whether you actually need to take this high varience spot.

 

Your hand is pretty easy to play post flop i.e. its either going to smash a flop (2 pair, monster combo draw, trips) or completely whiff. Your getting good pot odds just to call and see a flop here, and calling and folding flop doesnt really change your effective stack all that much. If you have a reasonable skill edge against most of the table I think I definitely prefer flatting and seeing a flop.

aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1

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