Not enough history with the villain to say much other than he’s playing relatively tight passive preflop. There are some regs at this level that seem to have a well developed limping range (even at 100+ bb). They are few and far between, so I’m assuming this is a recreational player until proven otherwise.

You hit the nail on the head about why I dislike my flop play. The board is quite dynamic and interacts quite heavily with villain’s most likely range. I don’t generally make huge flop bets, but ~3/4 pot seems a lot better than the 2/5 bet I made, especially considering how deep we are.

Turn is pretty close. I think it will be hard to get two more bets called by enough hands that I beat, but I prefer looking for value on the turn than the river, so I believe I should have bet. I want to pick a size that can get value from a T and some draws, 1/2 – 2/3 pot seems about right. I think I’d prefer the check if I had the A.

River I was really tempted to call because of the price. The sizing seems like a blocking bet but villain could be doing that with an 8 or a J, probably more combos of those hands than the few pairs I might still beat. I also see a lot of recreational players size down with nutty hands once their opponent shows weakness, we all know that feeling of having a big hand and being desperate to get at least some value from it. Good players will mix bluffs in with any size that they’re betting for value, but I’m discounting the chance that villain is thinking on that level. I only need to win 19.1% of the time to break even, but it still ended up feeling like a fold.