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(1 votes) 
February 8, 2017
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Villain is a solid regular. Slightly tighter than your average TAG preflop, but quite aggro and relatively sticky when he gets involved. We have a fair amount of history, I think he might perceive me as an aggro TAG who bluffs more than most regs at $27. He may be a HUD stat bot (ie. mass multitabling, not making reads based on showdowns), so I don’t want to attach too much importance to any read he might have on my play.
Are we looking to raise this river or do we prefer a call? If I raise, I’m folding to a shove.
PokerStars – 30/60 Ante 8 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
EatMyFish (MP): 81.57 BB
drunken.sp (MP+1): 79.82 BB
skywalker.gl (MP+2): 122.02 BB
sukisurova (CO): 79.65 BB
Maitre Tims (BTN): 86.93 BB
luckeylooker (SB): 77.57 BB
neverwin1965 (BB): 105.82 BB
A.Kedavra7582 (UTG): 105.68 BB
K!ck-AzZ Guy (UTG+1): 82.83 BB
9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, luckeylooker posts SB 0.5 BB, neverwin1965 posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) EatMyFish has A
Q
fold, fold, EatMyFish raises to 2.75 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, luckeylooker calls 2.25 BB, neverwin1965 calls 1.75 BB
Flop: (9.45 BB, 3 players) J J
9
luckeylooker checks, neverwin1965 checks, EatMyFish checks
Turn: (9.45 BB, 3 players) A
luckeylooker checks, neverwin1965 bets 5 BB, EatMyFish calls 5 BB, fold
River: (19.45 BB, 2 players) 2
neverwin1965 bets 15 BB, EatMyFish ?
July 24, 2018
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Seems like a trivial call. Certainly never folding. Can we get called by Jx that isn’t full, or lesser flushes? Maybe this is a thin value raise, and fold, as Villain would be unlikely to turn Jx into a bluff, but I am just calling here..
November 28, 2015
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Against your MP open, given the SB completed, the BB could profitably play ATC (20% pot vs. 32o having 25%).
Full house: AA, AJ, J9, 99 12 combos (assuming he’s 3-betting with AA)
Flush: KT,87,76,65,54, 5 combos
3 of a kind: J8, JT, JQ, JK 23.52 combos
Top pair: (assuming he will play any Axsuited, and like maybe A8o+) 48 combos
12 combos we lose to VS. 76 combos we crush…I kinda like a Jam. There’s so many combos out there that we beat, I love Jam on my bagel.
November 28, 2015
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From the perspective of playing ATC:
Quads:1 combo
Fullhouse:22 combos
Flush:28 flush combos
3 of a kind: 68 combos
Top pair: 82 combos
23 combos we lose to VS. 178 combos we beat.
Still jamming.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Just because a hand has >20% equity doesn’t make it a profitable call here. It has to REALIZE >20% equity to call, and many hands won’t. I also wouldn’t include top pair in Villain’s range for near-potting the river. Finally, just because you’re beating a bunch of hands he would bet doesn’t mean you should raise. You need to assess your equity vs his range for calling your raise. I just call here.
November 28, 2015
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we have 88% equity vs 11% equity against AT range.
And we have 73% equity vs this range: JJ,99,22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,AKs-A9s,KQs-KJs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s.
I can see what you mean by “assessing your equity vs his range for calling”. Because his range gets more narrow with an unrealized >20%? I think that’s what you’re saying.
and our equity goes WAY down vs this range: JJ,99,22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,AKs-A9s,KQs-KJs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s
This is what you are saying, correct? Because if we narrow his range, our equity goes way down?
February 8, 2017
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I love the work you put in on analyzing the combos Maniac. That’s some of the stuff I’m hoping we can study together, I think we’ll both learn a ton. I think there are some assumptions made here which need to be looked at, but the process is great.
First off, it’s a common misconception that villain can profitably defend ATC here. That would be crazy. You’re correct that he’s getting decent odds to call with 72o, but that’s only if there was no possibility for further betting. The villain will be out of position to the preflop aggressor, and most hands under-realize their equity out of position in a heads up pot. They do even worse multi-way. I defend my blind a lot tighter when there’s already a caller. Specifically, I hate hands like A3o or K7o multiway, but I’ll often defend those if it folds to me. I much prefer hands that flop draws, and ones that either hit the flop really hard or are easy folds, like 65o or 96s.
Regardless of villain’s preflop range, we need to narrow that range significantly as we get new pieces of information. What hands is villain likely to lead the turn with? Of those hands which lead the turn, which ones are going to make a big bet on the river? Of those hands that bet the river, how many call a raise?
Villain’s range shrinks dramatically once we look at it that way. For example, I don’t think Villain is likely to lead turn with most Aces. My range that raises from MP and checks-back this flop is going to be very Ace heavy. I can have AK, which villain is very unlikely to have. To my mind, Villain is saying “I beat an Ace” when he leads the turn. He’ll likely have some draws and a few low equity bluffs, but the story he’s telling is quite strong. This is a similar spot to the hand where you led turn from the blinds, although this board is somewhat less static.
I have some other thoughts about the hand but I’ve got a day 2 starting in half an hour, need to start warming up.
November 28, 2015
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“I love the work you put in on analyzing the combos Maniac. That’s some of the stuff I’m hoping we can study together, I think we’ll both learn a ton. I think there are some assumptions made here which need to be looked at, but the process is great.” -It’s comments like this that keep me going man, thank you it really means a lot.
“First off, it’s a common misconception that villain can profitably defend ATC here.” I am admitting here that I am part of the common misconception. This makes a lot of sense. Granted, I personally would never play ATC here. That said, based on the math (until you and Andrew have brought me to an understanding) I thought it was “profitable” for ATC to defend given 20% equity where AT will have roughly 25% against some ranges. Again, thank you fellas.
“that’s only if there was no possibility for further betting.” I read you loud and clear. I think that’s why my mind has been leaning towards this misconception because I play mostly freerolls and play against mostly ATC. But it’s like a double edge. Yes I misunderstood but at least I can see the benefit of playing better cards.
“I defend my blind a lot tighter when there’s already a caller.” Same here. I disciplined myself to sticking as close to my range as possible. I have to say I do struggle a bit with the blinds but I know it will come over time.
“Regardless of villain’s preflop range, we need to narrow that range significantly as we get new pieces of information.” It’s funny, because at my stakes the hands I see players show up with have me scratching my head. I wanted to believe that the new information given by our opponents should be exactly as you have stated. But when they call 3 barrels with a gut shot I guess I just get too confident that most players in these stakes play this way. Although it might be true for some, I shouldn’t be relying on that. I feel I will do ok once I move up in stakes but keeping all of this in mind will help me make much better decisions and make me a much better player in the long run. I am looking forward to studying with you, for sure!
“What hands is villain likely to lead the turn with? Of those hands which lead the turn, which ones are going to make a big bet on the river? Of those hands that bet the river, how many call a raise?” This is great because I think it also ties in with the question Andrew answered on your other post with the T6 river bluff. So if he is leading the turn smaller, he is keeping in all of your hands which could A) beat him and B) he could beat. If he makes his turn lead even bigger, Andrew was saying that he will face raises/folds more often. So I guess that kind of implies we are going to be facing an absolute monster on the river, or a hand that had potential of a full house so possibly 3 of a kind. I am now leaning towards the full house though, in which case I call here also but I think I am closing my eyes when I do 
“Regardless of villain’s preflop range, we need to narrow that range significantly as we get new pieces of information. What hands is villain likely to lead the turn with? Of those hands which lead the turn, which ones are going to make a big bet on the river? Of those hands that bet the river, how many call a raise?” Also going in my notes. Thank you. I feel so blessed to have had the two of you help me out like this. I can’t thank you or Andrew enough! 
“I have some other thoughts about the hand but I’ve got a day 2 starting in half an hour, need to start warming up.” Good luck brother, I wish you the best. Take one down for us!
February 8, 2017
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I’m glad you’re finding us so helpful. It’s what we’re here for, aside from always wanting to learn more. Thanks for the good wishes for my day 2. I lasted precisely 8 hands. Cooler SB vs BB, neither of us was ever folding. At least I made one payjump lol.
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