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TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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L:ast level of Day1 of the Main.
200/400/50a, 24k stack
UTG opens to 800, UTG1 flats, BTN flats, SB folds, hero is BB** (thanks michael) with 65dd. Defends.
Notes:
UTG: winner of a poker league to get into the main, and evidently not a very tough one. Played half a level or so standing next to his chair. covers hero but not by much
UTG1: younger side of middle age, has been playing fairly passively postflop without hands, but has also shown down one or two bad bluffs after he opened pre with a very marginal hand (JTo from EP, K9o from MP, i think). hes been stars-rushing and has 60-70k
BTN: East Coast MTT pro. also covers
FLOP
(3850); 23.2k behind
9s6s5c
Hero checks, OR cbets 1800, UTG1 raises to 3800, BTN folds, Hero ?
April 30, 2015
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I think hero has a fair chance to be outdrawn by bigger 2 pair or a flush. Possibility of straight is also there, but less. Since hero is oop as well, it is a fold. Also a good chance to improve the read on utg+1 if ever the hand goes to showdown.
August 25, 2014
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If UTG+1 doesn't have a 3betting range vs UTG, then he would probably play JJ+ or QQ+ this way. Button and BB would likely squeeze QQ+ pre so I think you're ahead of his range. He likely thinks BTN and BB range is very weak and skewed towards draws and marginal pairs and can therefore raise worse hands for value. He probably flats 78s,55,66,99 but he also might bluff raise 77 and 88 sometimes too.
This is a spot that he might just call postflop with a lot of his flush draws, esp JTss etc as he isn't loving a check raise and will want to see turns and rivers. I don't know if he'd get in 65bb with all his overpairs but he will probably call a check raise and turn bet with JJ +. I would check raise to 11k and bet around 40% on most turns and reassess on rivers. Likely 25-30% on most rivers with my whole range. Obv its sick if he calls to river and raises but you have all the sets and 78 in range so that wouldn't be very good versus your range that has very few bluffs in it
BTW you wrote above that hero is in BTN instead of BB
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Gross. Against the described player, might just be a fold. Sizing doesn’t seem particularly nutty though, even with a straight he sounds like the sort who would be worried about charging draws. In that case you can cold call.
Maybe a little results oriented but I think this is a decent spot to donk. A lot of one-pair and draw hands will call you, and I think you can pretty comfortably fold to a raise from most people. Your hand won’t usually be strong enough to check-raise, it’s a disaster for you if flop checks around, etc. Good spot to lead stronger made hands as well, I think, which is why I feel fine folding to a raise.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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Foucault said:
Gross. Against the described player, might just be a fold. Sizing doesn't seem particularly nutty though, even with a straight he sounds like the sort who would be worried about charging draws. In that case you can cold call.
Maybe a little results oriented but I think this is a decent spot to donk. A lot of one-pair and draw hands will call you, and I think you can pretty comfortably fold to a raise from most people. Your hand won't usually be strong enough to check-raise, it's a disaster for you if flop checks around, etc. Good spot to lead stronger made hands as well, I think, which is why I feel fine folding to a raise.
Andrew,
My next question after some replies was definitely going to ask if we can/should donk. Donking felt wrong in this scenario as to at least 2 of the 3 players left in the hand, it will seem incredibly strong, probably repping stronger than we actually are. My only donking hands in this scenario would be my exact hand, and maybe like 95s 96s hands i would have also defended. I have to imagine I would plan on c/r {nutted hands, pair+SD+FD hands, and my sets}, for exploitive reasons (UTG is prob going to over-cbet). The only other hands I could see myself including in a donk range might be occasional NFD+gutter combos, but I also could very reasonably have that in a c/r range as well.
As played, do you prefer: fold, cold call and re-assess, or ch/3b(/f or /c?)
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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michaeldi11on said:
If UTG+1 doesn't have a 3betting range vs UTG, then he would probably play JJ+ or QQ+ this way. Button and BB would likely squeeze QQ+ pre so I think you're ahead of his range. He likely thinks BTN and BB range is very weak and skewed towards draws and marginal pairs and can therefore raise worse hands for value. He probably flats 78s,55,66,99 but he also might bluff raise 77 and 88 sometimes too.
This is a spot that he might just call postflop with a lot of his flush draws, esp JTss etc as he isn't loving a check raise and will want to see turns and rivers. I don't know if he'd get in 65bb with all his overpairs but he will probably call a check raise and turn bet with JJ +. I would check raise to 11k and bet around 40% on most turns and reassess on rivers. Likely 25-30% on most rivers with my whole range. Obv its sick if he calls to river and raises but you have all the sets and 78 in range so that wouldn't be very good versus your range that has very few bluffs in it
BTW you wrote above that hero is in BTN instead of BB
Few things:
I definitely dont think we'll ever be seeing a river without going all in in this spot, especially once we decide to c/r to 11k. My only bet size on all turns in this scenario would be all-in.
I definitely agree he flats a capped strong pair range of something like {TT-JJ, QQ 1/2 the time}. I'm pretty sure he would raise these on this flop and probably to this size.
I totally disagree that he would try to raise 77-88 as a bluff in a four-way pot, on a flush draw board. Just seems a tough sell to me vs a non-professional.
Edited the BTN/BB typo there, thanks!
August 25, 2014
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Just realised when I did the math in my head for my choice of bet sizing that I was thinking you had 60k instead of 60bb. Which is silly because the rest of the analysis was based on you have 60bb. I now also agree that we jam turns if check raise to 11k.
I do think it’s worth stressing villains extremely narrow value range of 4combos of 78s, 3c of 99 and 1c of 66 and 55. That’s 9 value combos. If he raises all JJ and the discounted combos of QQ that you gave him, that is 9 combos of hands you beat.
Is there any chance villain could think you would check raise a 9 or TT here? I know you wouldn’t but does he?
February 20, 2015
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Original raiser could have a flush draw, top set, or an overpair, assuming he wouldn’t cbet with a hand like AKo because 4 people are in the pot.
The raiser could have a nut flush draw or a set in his range, leaning more toward 99 because you have 6/5 blockers and the raise is too small to be a flush draw.
You don’t close the action here. In the ME, this is a tough fold to me, although I probably would have called.
I would have donk-led, also, but I can see how that can be tricky as well. I don’t know what to do when I’m raised, and you shouldn’t bet if you don’t know what to do if you’re raised. I’ve been thinking lately about how I overdo this, and I’m thinking it’s harder to donk-lead on a wet board if I’m deep. And in a hand like this, it’s hard to pot control because there are so many draws out there.
Very tricky hand and worthy of the first post-WSOP TPE podcast (hint, hint).
August 4, 2013
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probably not an option but can you raise to 6600 and then fold to a 4 bet shove? you would still have almost 40bb if you did this
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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michaeldi11on said:
Just realised when I did the math in my head for my choice of bet sizing that I was thinking you had 60k instead of 60bb. Which is silly because the rest of the analysis was based on you have 60bb. I now also agree that we jam turns if check raise to 11k.
I do think it's worth stressing villains extremely narrow value range of 4combos of 78s, 3c of 99 and 1c of 66 and 55. That's 9 value combos. If he raises all JJ and the discounted combos of QQ that you gave him, that is 9 combos of hands you beat.
Is there any chance villain could think you would check raise a 9 or TT here? I know you wouldn't but does he?
i highly doubt your last point. dont think that kind of meta was established in the game here.
tazzjazz said:
probably not an option but can you raise to 6600 and then fold to a 4 bet shove? you would still have almost 40bb if you did this
i actually ended up ch/3b to 7.8k and then folding to a shove 
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