OK, this hand came up last night in the $11R and we're ITM. The villian is a good profitable reg and has been pretty active running 28/21/15 (n = 134), and has been pushing 'weaker' players off draw heavy boards, particularly on the river using his positional advantage. On the occasions where he has shown down he's had baby connectors/one gappers both suited on off-suited… miraculously these hands have held. My image has been TAG, and I've been pestering some of the shorter stacks mostly with aggressive post flop play…
With the above read, how would you play the following hand….
Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t800/t1600 Blinds + t150 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MP2: BB = 28.5, t45580
CO: BB = 14.9, t23895
BTN: BB = 2.1, t3318
SB: BB = 16.1, t25763
BB: BB = 24.3, t38840
UTG: BB = 7.8, t12482
UTG+1: BB = 14.4, t22966
Hero (MP1): BB = 42.6, t68177
Pre Flop: (t3600) Hero is MP1 with 7 7
2 folds, Hero raises to t3200, 4 folds, BB calls t1600
Flop: (t8400) K 6 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t3360, BB calls t3360
Turn: (t15120) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t6048, BB calls t6048
River: (t27216) 6 (2 players)
BB bets t26082 all in, Hero ?????
May 30, 2012
I mean you have to fold, but it is interesting as to what he has here. He shouldn't ever have clubs because he should be raise/getting it in on the flop with his stack size. His line looks like k10/kj/kq until the river, but his jam doesn't make sense with those hands. He could have something like 67ss, but he shouldnt really be calling preflop with those hands. A6ss is also a possibilty. of course he could have quad 66 or 22. He might just 3 bet shove 66 preflop, but he could also just flat the minraise getting over 4-1 and set hunt. Thats probably what I would do with those smaller pairs. I can't really see any hands that he calls twice with then tries to turn into a bluff either. He would be 3 bet shoving 88+ for sure preflop. If I had ak here I think we have to fold. Just don't see him bluffing here or value betting worse especially since you said he was a good player.
What about checking back the turn? Are we betting the turn for value, or as a bluff? I dont think we get him to fold a better hand, and the only worse hand he calls with it some sort of 6, but i think there are more kx hands in his range than 6x. I doubt he is just floating oop to try and take the pot away on a later street with his stack size, so if we check back turn and he fires a brick river we can comfortably fold. If we check back turn and he checks a brick river then maybe we can think abot value betting thinnish to get called by a 6.
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