Yeah…I am not sure how much of this really apples to how we would play a hand. Sounds like it is not worth figuring out while you are at the poker table. We as poker players definitely have awareness of this because we know others are holding cards, but I dont think it is worth figuring and calculating. Interested to hear any other thoughts on this.

Wein- you are correct that you can not assume that certain cards are outs.

But you can assume that in an average of 34.6 perecent of your outs is in the hands of the other 9 players

as their share of the total 52 card deck is 18 cards or 34.6 percent of the entire deck.

For me it`s sounds absolute logically correct.

I can not find anything wrong with it.

And I can not see any answer here that makes him wrong.

When 34.61% percent of the deck is dealt to the other players at your table

you must assume that 34.61% percent of your outs is is dealt to them as well.(on an infinite eternal average)

To count with relative outs sounds like a more realistic way to count.

(But perhaps it`s a sad and negative way to count.)

Im using the old simplified method of counting my chance to hit a certain hand.

For turn (outs * 2+1=Hit%)

For flop to river (outs * 4-1=Hit%)

Example a flushdraw.(only flush and nothing else)

9 cards to fill a flush.

Basic outs count from flop to river=9*4-2=~34%

Now to the relative outs math.

On an average is 34.6% or ~3 of your needed outs gone and already dealt to the other players

and therefore all outs is not available for you.

That give you only 6 outs  will remain in the deck to your flush-draw (on average)

Relative outs count from flop to river=6*4-2=~22%

Anyway

Can we use this?

It could probably be useful to remember that your chances to hit with your

draws are in reality lesser than you matematically expect when you are in a

coinflip situation.

Probably….?????

Not insane…

This is funny ah?

I don't think you can assume some outs are gone into other players hands, therefore reducing

your outs.  How many times has there been a four flush on the board and everyone checks

on the river and noone has the flush?  Another way to think about it is does it really matter

whether one of you outs is in an opponents hand or the bottom of the deck where it will

never be dealt from? No, it doesn't but your odds are the same either way.  Just my two

cents worth.

David

chained_dragon FT

chainedragon PS

Perhaps what your guy is missing in his evaluation of the realitive outs is the distribution.  It is not a question of wether or not your outs are in the cards that will not be dealt or the muck, it is simply the odds that your outs will show up on the turn, river, etc. That basic probablilty stays the same.  Hence you still have a 9 in 32 shot of hitting your flush over the long term regardless of wether or not 3 of your outs were in the other players hands.  The times when they are not balance the times that they are.  Does this help?

its esay to explain. You are saying that some of the outs are in the other players hands so you have to discount those outs.  Well you also have to discount the number of cards you are including for your percentage because those cards that aren't your outs are also in the other players hands.  So you are left with two ways of calcuating your percentage of hitting an out as follows:

Actual outs

9/45= .20 or 20%

Relative outs

6/32= .1875 or 19%

You see its really the same either way you look at it.  If you discount the number of outs that most likely are in the other players hands, you also have to discount the number of cards left to draw to those outs.