June 22, 2010
This is from a live hand tonight at the Venitian Deepstacks Bounty, I will keep it short. I was just moved to a new table, blinds 800/1600 antes at 200. I was dealt KAo MP, I opened for 4k, the button raised to a total of 6k, the guy before me called. There was approx. 18k in the pot, I had 27k left. The button had me covered by 1250 and the guy before me I had covered by 5k. I decided to shove, the button tanked and called, the guy before me tanked and folded. I was hoping to take the pot then, but felt if I had to play heads up agianst someone the shove was a good call with my holdings. What do you guys think?
"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."
I don't have a huge amount of experience playing live so I will treat this as online, which may or may not make a difference. So you start the hand with 31k, which is slightly under 20bbs. With AK and 20bbs I am desperate to get it in preflop any way I can. The button's raise is representing a premium hand, given that he has minraised you he is clearly not afraid of a call but it is not necessarily a premium either. The flat from what I assume is one of the blinds (given that you said you opened the pot) looks like a medium strength hand as I don't expect him to trap with AA or KK. So I think you are ahead or racing most of the time here and rarely behind, especially given that you have a blocker to AA and KK. Also you still have fold equity and this would be a nice pot to take without a sweat so unless I have a specific read on the button's minraise, whcih you don't having just joined the table, I am certainly getting it in.
Do you have any information about the button. Is he younger or older? Is he wearing lots of jewlery? etc. I will say in my experience (which is limited live but not a noob) if a guy with a single grey hair on his head min raises u from any poisition its a monster (of course there are some exceptions). I would say that you are up against QQ, KK, AA. I have not learned myself how not to shove in this spot either but I def think your flipping at the very best or crushed. How many players are left in the tourney?? A 20 bb stack isnt as much of a danger zone thing when your live vs being online so if u did fold you would have some room to maneuver if u did fold. Also how are the stack sizes at the table are you a big stack or short and where are they relative to you? From my experience a min 3 bet live is usually a monster. GL with your series and GL folding in those spots (Brutal)
With 20 bigs, a top 5% and a 3b from random in position… ummmm gotta ship it unless you had a read on button. His 3b could be 88+, KQs, AJo type hands or air (which we determine it isn't since he calls our shove). We can discount some of his Ax and Kx combos and only supremely dominated by AA. As this is a Bounty tourny and he has position, I think he can 3-bet a tad wider range than AA. Now that BB is priced in he expecting you to flat so he simply calls to see the flop (Ax, Kxs+, SC, etc) to try to get 2 KOs… you screw up his plan by shoving.
BU's call is fairly std given pot size, bonus of KO, etc… he probably woke up w/ JJ, QQ, or AK. You're AK didn't improve so now you're questioning your play, right?
When you tank to think about your next move (fold, call, 4bet shuv), think about you sitting in villains seat and how you would try to chip up given how everything unfolded. I think your shove is very profitable…
HERO: top 5%= 65% Equity (vs. Random); 55% (vs. 1010-QQ); 33% (vs. KK only) & 25% (vs. KK-AA w/ 2 suits removed).
Shove unless 100% certain AA or KK there, which based on your post we can't do as this play can be done with so many other hands as well.
June 22, 2010
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