For the next time, don’t post the result yet.

As played I think you can fold the river here pretty easy.

He would call with any kind of trips aces against your huge overbet and you only beat 99 22 or 66.
99 is unlikely since he would most likely raise PF, 22 is unlikely because you’ve already got a 2 and there is a deuce on the board. So the only hand you beat here (most % of the time) would be 66 and he wouldn’t be likely to bet 66 on the turn and then also call your check-raise.

Why bet the river so big? You make it so easy for him to fold out worst hands. What hands do you think he would shove that you beat here? I rather make it close to pot size and expect to get hero called by a lot of 9x TT-KK hand (that might have slowplayed PF, but those are unlikely since they won’t bet/call the turn all that often).

Another thing to consider on the river would be a check-raise. I think that will give you more value in the long run then a bet. There is a change he would check behind some weak hands but he will most likely fold them to a bet as well. I also don’t expect a $10 player to check behind trips aces on the river here (and neither fold to a big check-raise) + you allow him to bluff his missed draws and get value from them.

JDOG1645 said:

I dont think you can fold the river at these stakes with a fullhouse, or not at least on this board with having aces full. We only lose to 3 possible combinations. I had a guy 3bet shove me preflop with 36o earlier tonight.

That is totally irrelevant since it happened preflop. We now have so much more information to us that we can make better decisions.

HERO’s line is just never going to make him shove with worst hands here.

If you have A8, AT-AK, as villain, you are not going to shove for value anymore. You would have re-raised the turn to get more value from his flush draws. Especially since hero over bets the river (1500 into ~1260). This would make villain plays his worst hands more passively like 90% of the time for sure, instead of shipping it all-in here.

I think we are good here like 10-15% of the time when he would bluff missed draws or ship it all-in with weaker aces/full houses.

The pot is 6785 and we have to call 3785.  This means we need to be good here ~32% of the time to make a call profitable and I don’t think we make that. So we should fold.

plessis204 said:

raise the turn once he check raises imo.

we c/r.

im pretty convinced by the argument for a b/f here, although i’m not sure i could make it in game in a 10$ mtt. that being said we shouldn’t allow the buyin of a tourney to affect our decisions.

nice analysis rh!

Nice breakdown RH….I see what your saying, I just dont know that I could fold there in the heat of the moment but breaking the action down it pretty much says we are beat.