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Bad choice of villain and bad stack dynamics for an open push steal with K8?
derSchwartz
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June 25, 2014 - 10:03 am
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Good morning crushers,

This hand is from a $2 rebuy/addon with 8 players remaining, winner taking about $180 and 8th place taking about $20.

I wonder if I should have open raise/folded this giving the circumstances of having the chipleader villain, jaystuntz to my left and there being plenty of better people to steal from (ie. anyone else).  jaystuntz (n=150) was playing pretty aggressively, 28/18  with 9.1% 3bet and 6% open limp.  55% steal, only 43% fold to steal and 20% resteal.

Merge Network $300 Gtd – [+R, Turbo] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t3000.00/t6000.00 Blinds + t600.00 – 8 players – View hand 2527846
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): BB = 13.0, t78027
jaystuntz (BB): BB = 19.4, t116671
felonybob (UTG): BB = 12.9, t77169
Raemond (UTG+1): BB = 11.9, t71122
Sweetie715 (MP1): BB = 5.1, t30871
Rich1216 (MP2): BB = 4.2, t25042
ramblegamble (CO): BB = 17.6, t105664
Klinic (BTN): BB = 10.1, t60434

Pre Flop: (t13800) Hero is SB with K of hearts 8 of clubs
6 folds, Hero raises to t77427 all in, jaystuntz calls t71427

Would it have been reasonable to open raise/fold this or do something different?  I am confident that since it's FT, player betting patterns and recent hands could even make this an open fold, like if I had just played many hands, but this wasn't the case.

Thanks for reading.

markconkle
High Stakes Shark
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June 26, 2014 - 12:52 am
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I certainly wouldn't raise to any amount other than allin.  Villain has position and now can choose whether to see a flop or try to push you around now.  Villain should be scared of losing a flip to you, and it puts him down pretty seriously.  Depending on how often you think he will call, I could see folding for ICM considerations, but I would have to be pretty certain.  K8o is not even close to the bottom of a Nash shoving range here, and if anything, I would expect villain to fold more often than the Nash range.  Of course, your risk of busting does require some adjustments.  However, I think K8o is far enough from the bottom of your range that it should really be a shove every time.

Poking_Fun
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June 26, 2014 - 5:20 am
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Agree with Mark, 100% shoving this.

In fact, I do not do too much raise/folding from the small blind at all when I have <=15bbs. I tend to raise/call with strong hands and shove the rest dependent upon whether I think the villain is capable of calling correctly or not which guides me to how wide I will shove.

Obviously, if I play against someone really often then I might have to mix in some raise/folds on occasion but in MTTs I doubt anyone has enough hands on me in this specific situation to exploit.

I personally don't like putting in small raises blind v blind as I feel people defend more and playing postflop becomes quite difficult with a shortish stack OOP against a wide preflop calling range. 

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