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Bad beat or bad call?
chaos
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March 20, 2016 - 5:45 pm
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This is an AI situation. This tilted me beyond what I thought possible so I stopped playing right after this hand. I tanked as I wasn’t particularly sure about the odds here (I was sure I was probably flipping against one of them). I’m pretty sure the call by the dude that ends up winning the hand is pretty horrible but… do you think I should have folded at this spot or is this a simple bad beat?

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
9 Players
$10+$1

Blinds 150/300 9
UTG SlyderS1 2,698
UTG+1 Marto115 3,456
MP1 pszemula 2,771
MP2 pintoelbajon 11,401
MP3 AlSchmiWu 8,157
CO Hero 10,799
D Okapi Cherry 9,506
SB 20wzu06 7,049
BB corvet75 10,768

Preflop
9 810 Hero is CO K A
SlyderS1 goes all-in 2,658, Marto115 goes all-in 3,416, 3 folds, Hero goes all-in 10,759, Okapi Cherry goes all-in 9,466, 2 folds
Flop
4 27,109, 4 all-in 3 9 5
Turn
4 27,109, 4 all-in 2
River
4 27,109, 4 all-in Q
Final Pot 27,109
Hero shows high card Ace K A
Okapi Cherry shows a pair of Queens K Q
SlyderS1 shows a pair of Jacks J J
Marto115 shows high card Ace K A

Okapi Cherry wins 25,816 (net +16,310)
Hero collects 1,293 (net –9,506)
SlyderS1 lost 2,698
Marto115 lost 3,456

Foucault

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March 20, 2016 - 9:45 pm
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Folding would be a sizable mistake, and I think you know that. I mean, would you be posting this hand if you’d won?

Tough love: if you’re going to get so upset over a pretty standard beat, it’s hard for me to imagine that you’re +EV in the field at all. I mean, something like this is almost certainly going to happen you over the course of a long tournament, and that doesn’t mean that you can’t recover and go on to win, UNLESS you start playing badly afterwards. If that’s going to happen, then it’s going to be quite difficult for you ever to get deep in a tournament, because you’ll tilt away all of your chips before you have the chance.

almofadinhas
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March 20, 2016 - 9:53 pm
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I guess is just a bad beat.

You can call and try to induce BO or one of the blinds to move in with worst.

chaos
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March 21, 2016 - 8:41 am
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Foucault, when I say I “stopped” playing I mean I stopped registering to new tournaments, I had only that tournament left open and I still played my 4 bbs pushing all in the next 3 hands with JJ, AJ and AT, finally busting against JJ on that last hand (I was expecting to be called light after three AI but run into JJ, still think it was the right play with my stack size) which I think is perfectly fine with my 4, 5.5 and 7bb … it’s not like I just gave up. Tilt is not usually a big issue for me but when I get into that I can usually recognize the fact and I just choose to stop playing at that point if I can (stop registering, not crazily throwing away my money).

But tilt or no tilt aside, my doubt is whether the call itself is EV+ or not. When the UTG goes AI for 9BB I figure I’m way ahead of his range but when the UTG+1 calls I have my doubts I am. Even if the other guy hadn’t called, what I’m mostly doubting is whether calling 10BB with AK agains two players is EV+ or not.

If I assume the UTG is pushing with his top 15% and the UTG+1 is only reshoving with about 5% (88+, ATs+) which I think is fair I have a 33% equity against those ranges… I know it is EV to do it agains the UTG raise but then with the reshove… Is that EV+? To me it feels more like break even and I wonder whether it is worth gambling at that spot (I’ll win once every three times) or just fold and find a better spot.

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