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(0 votes) 
May 30, 2012
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deepish in the big 16,
villain is running 8/6 on 36 hands
general thoughts on line?
PokerStars - $15+$1.50|400/800 Ante 100 NL - Holdem - 9 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com MP: 8,523.00 MP+1: 38,516.00 LP: 27,731.00 Hero (CO): 33,670.00 BTN: 14,207.00 SB: 65,353.00 BB: 20,077.00 UTG: 8,050.00 UTG+1: 3,726.00 MP posts ante 100.00, MP+1 posts ante 100.00, LP posts ante 100.00, Hero posts ante 100.00, BTN posts ante 100.00, SB posts ante 100.00, BB posts ante 100.00, UTG posts ante 100.00, UTG+1 posts ante 100.00, SB posts SB 400.00, BB posts BB 800.00 Pre Flop: (2100.00) Hero has 7s As fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 1,600.00, fold, SB calls 1,200.00, BB calls 800.00 Flop: (5700.00, 3 players) 5d 6c 8c SB checks, BB bets 2,800.00, Hero calls 2,800.00, SB calls 2,800.00 Turn: (14100.00, 3 players) Ah SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 5,666.00, SB calls 5,666.00, BB raises to 15,577.00 and is all-in, Hero???
January 24, 2013
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BB flats the 1/2 pot bet on the flop then make a little over pot sized bet on turn…. It appears he hit a set on the flop, and was keeping everyone in. Then when everone bets 1/2 pot ahead of him on the turn hes betting max value….
you have 10 outs… which is ~20% to hit on river… this is a clear fold to me
the only way im considering calling this is if my A7 were 
's also.. still you'd be gambling at ~38% chance to hit
November 30, 2012
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ugh, so ugly, so sick odds, calling 10k to win 41k, you only need to win a small percentage of the time for this to be correct, i imagine SB can be squeezed out with an overshove from you, so lets run a range through pokerstove and see what comes up:
88,66,55,AcJc,AcTc,Ac9c,A8s-A5s,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,97s,86s,A8o-A5o,97o
Okey. Vs this range you have 25,2% eq. you are getting 1-4.5, so imagining you can squeeze out third players range with a reshove then this is a good reshove vs this range. My range might be wrong, if you think so please adjust. Removing only a couple of hands (like the weak fd aces) will make this a fold.
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January 22, 2013
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you could check the turn as well but given the PSR if im betting i need to be happy to call a shove here (which im not so hence why i don’t love the bet)
May 30, 2012
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why would you want to check the turn?
January 22, 2013
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duggs said:
why would you want to check the turn?
just saying we could, i don't think i would as a default but some of the time i would to try and induce a river bet
May 30, 2012
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induce a bluff or a value bet? if they are vbetting we can just bet ourselves on the turn and river, and this is a spot where our opponents river betting range contains next to no air
November 19, 2012
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I'd rather bet 3575 on turn and fold to a shove. When we bet this much we get value from a ton of worse hands and get the benefit of most likely not facing a river bet. We don't have anything close to a reasonable sample size on villain but given what we have it seems pretty likely that when he shoves we are beat and can comfortably fold.
May 30, 2012
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ugh wrong thread
January 22, 2013
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duggs said:
induce a bluff or a value bet? if they are vbetting we can just bet ourselves on the turn and river, and this is a spot where our opponents river betting range contains next to no air
bc i would feel the EV could be higher with some dynamics, dont think of things as ” as a bluff” or “for value”
January 1, 2013
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I think a turn check would be good tbh.
We aren't likely to get 2 streets of value from worse, can pot control and take a free shot at the straight and maybe induce bluffs on the river. If they both check we can bet most rivers for value.
November 19, 2012
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rumsey182 said:
duggs said:
induce a bluff or a value bet? if they are vbetting we can just bet ourselves on the turn and river, and this is a spot where our opponents river betting range contains next to no air
bc i would feel the EV could be higher with some dynamics, dont think of things as ” as a bluff” or “for value”
why.
May 30, 2012
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CAT70K said:
I think a turn check would be good tbh.
We aren't likely to get 2 streets of value from worse, can pot control and take a free shot at the straight and maybe induce bluffs on the river. If they both check we can bet most rivers for value.
Yea except isnt the turn way better to go for value as all draws still call? then we can check back scary rivers?
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