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ATo with big draw, is this a call?
skyboss1622
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February 26, 2011 - 12:58 pm
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For some reason the converter didn't read it right, but Slettie is my hand and position and BB, just wrong name. Any way i ran into this spot and wasn't sure what to do, was this a call? i folded, but was really torn on wether this was a call or not. please help!

 

Full Tilt Poker $7,500 KO Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t200/t400 Blinds + t50 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: BB = 27.9, t11140
MP1: BB = 54.4, t21748
MP2: BB = 11.6, t4639
CO: BB = 23.7, t9465
BTN: BB = 45.5, t18188
SB: BB = 42.5, t16999
BB: BB = 15.1, t6029
UTG: BB = 36.5, t14605
Slettie (UTG+1): BB = 60.0, t23992

Pre Flop: (t1050) Slettie is UTG+1 with A of hearts T of spades
1 fold, Slettie raises to t849, 1 fold, MP1 calls t849, 1 fold, CO calls t849, 2 folds, BB calls t449

Flop: (t4046) Q of hearts K of hearts T of hearts (4 players)
BB checks, Slettie bets t2499, MP1 raises to t20849 all in, CO folds, BB folds, Slettie requests TIME, Slettie folds

isaacjames
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February 27, 2011 - 5:20 pm
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Honestly, with that wet a board and you getting a piece, there are so many possibilities that I would just simply go with my gut and if I feel like gambling here I would put it in as a lot of the time I would not be a big dog most of the time,  and would be ahead some of the time……that said here is my attempt to make a quick analysis:

 

After you bet  there is t6545, so he overbets the pot more than 3 times.  So first thought is he doesnt want you to see another card.  I would then put him on trips, 2 pair,  JJ with one heart, or even 9J with One heart.  to me it's less likely he has a flush, especially 9heartJheart for a str8 flush as he would probably be betting less to get value (Please keep in mind some of these combinations occur much more often than others).

With that said, you are calling  t18350 to win t43245 so about 2.35 to 1, and I would say you have at least 8 heart as outs (since there are 4 and he might have 1) you might win if an J or an ace hit some of the time, so that is another possible 6 outs (3 aces clubdiamondspade and 3 jacksclubdiamondspade) making it 8-14 outs

 

So bottom line for me….I am ahead many times, have lots of outs the rest of the time and get over 2 -1……Put it in laugh

Maybe the Pros can do a deep analysis of this one to figure out the actual EV based on sensible rangesor how to properly anaylze these spots.

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