Home
(8 votes) 
March 9, 2015
Offline
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
6 Players
$2.00+$0.20
Blinds 600/1,200 6
UTG rabiens 85,962
UTG+1 amnesico 11,633
CO victorhhmm 35,346
D Wladimir 271 71,737
SB rezausuario 132,711
BB Hero 20,844
6 2,520 Hero is BB 8 8
rabiens raises to 2,520, 4 folds, Hero goes all-in 20,724, rabiens calls 18,204
2 42,768, 1 all-in 3 K 9
2 42,768, 1 all-in J
2 42,768, 1 all-in 2
April 30, 2015
Offline
UTG raise, plus you have over 15BB. I am calling if levels are slow and if there are not too many ICM considerations. Otherwise, I don’t mind folding and getting it in better.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
Offline
Depends entirely on UTG’s opening range and calling range. Could be anywhere between really profitable and pretty bad. Versus a complete random I think it’s okay but not great, probably the worst pair you can shove there I guess.
December 30, 2015
Offline
Yeah I think this is read dependent.
I think my shoving range in this situation is JJ+, AKo+. 7-handed I might widen it to TT+, AQs+. I’m a nit though so I hate going AIPF in non-turbos with this many BBs, so I might have an even tighter range in EP or MP, like QQ+, AKo+.
If V is raising 14% and calling 5% (99+, AQ+) then…
- 88 only has around 30% equity. I don’t think our fold-equity offsets this. For reference, JJ and AKo have around 50% equity.
- I like a set-mine even more against an UTG open since the tighter implied range may be more likely to pay us off with just a pair (not to mention our call may invite others, juicing the immediate odds). If we just call, hit a set and call a flop bet and V bets the turn our SPR will be under 1 to get it in on the turn. Even if checked to we can get it in on the turn. We also have position and there are a lot of flops where we are comfortably ahead of all but the over-pairs in V’s range.
3-betting is an area I really need more study time with…lots of question marks incoming…. Is 3-betting our entire range interesting? his came up on a podcast I was just listening to with some live hands. I think it was the July 2012? The risk of going bust can be higher but the EV may be higher too? Higher variance since we may induce instead of getting a fold, forcing more flips but our hand does better against V’s open/shove range than his calling range right?
If we 3-bet to ~$6550 leaving $14.3K behind. It may look like exactly AA or KK and get through. I’m curious if anyone thinks this would be a line worth taking.
I post to learn, so learn me.
November 18, 2014
Offline
I think V open range estimate of a 15% is too tight. This is 6-handed and the villain is second in chips with 80BB, he also knows we are shoving or folding with our stack (or at least he may know that) so I’d say he will be opening a wider range, maybe something like 77+, Axs, JQ+ and maybe some suited connectors.
His calling range I assume could be 5% or a little bit wider than that.
I don’t think this shove is bad, I think it is posible EV+ if we count our hand and our fold equity against an unknown even if only slightly.
June 11, 2012
Offline
88 is a highly profitable shove even vs a 15.5% UTG(9max) open and it is printing money vs a looser lets say around 25% 6max UTG opening range.
November 18, 2014
Offline
I decided to make the math on this as I think this is kind of interesting and I like math.
If we take the formula for EV in this spot to be:
EV = %F * 4.9BB + %C * (%W * 19.2BB – %L * 18.2BB)
Where:
- %F is the percentage of time he’ll fold
- %C is the percentage of time he’ll call or 1-%F
- %W is the equity of our hand, that is the percentage of time we win
- %F is the percentage of times we will lose or 1-%W
When we apply that to a 15% open range and a 5% calling range (meaning he folds 2/3 of the hands he opens)
EV = 2/3 * 4.9BB + 1/3 ( 0.35 * 19.2BB – 0.65% * 18.2BB) = 1.56BB
That is, this is a pretty positive EV spot for those ranges.
If we change the assumption to be a 20% open with a 5% calling range.
EV = 3/4 * 4.9BB + 1/4 (0.35 * 19.2BB – 0.65% * 18.2BB) = 2.39BB
Making it a really good shove, but then if we assume 20% open and 10% call range we have
EV = 1/2 * 4.9BB + 1/2 ( 0.43 * 19.22 – 0.67 * 18.22) = 0.47BB
Meaning if he raises wide and calls wide this is going to be a break even kind of situation (slightly on the EV+ spot)
Finally, if he is really tight and it is only opening with his 10% and calling with his top 5% then
EV = 1/2 *4.9BB + 1/2 (0.35 * 19.22 – 0.67 * 18.22) = -0.29 BB
which is again close but this time slightly EV-
Since I love math, it is interesting to show this basically proves what Matthew was saying, this depends heavily on the opening and calling ranges of the villain.
But, given this is a 6-Max and the amount of chips he has, he should be opening lighter and while he may have a wider than usual calling range, I still think this is a very profitable shove (unless I’ve made some sort of mistake in my math).
June 11, 2012
Offline
great work.
you could additionally also calcualte the EV of flatting and compare that.
Alternatively you make all this in CREV and it shows you what is best with the entire range.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Offline
Nice work, chaos. I don’t doubt that shoving is better than folding. The real question is whether calling would be better than shoving. I suspect it would not, as V may fold a number of hands we’d like him to fold (AT, KQ), and with this stack size the 88 will have a hard time realizing its equity after the flop. However, “you could additionally also calculate the EV of flatting” is hardly a trivial thing to do!
December 30, 2015
Offline
What about the effect of variance/busting/ICM for a shove vs flat-to-set-mine? I feel like we bust more often against an UTG open vs a CO open if you weight towards the tighter ranges shown in the math due to position. I’m only putting so much weight on position if readless. I think we’ve shown in this thread that it is close depending on various factors. If close, in this exact situation, due to being (I assume) fairly deep in a tourney, why take the marginal spot (assuming structure is decent)?
If we still like some variance, and we flat and miss our set, we can still stop-and-go if heads-up and the flop is low and we are checked to. We won’t have the betting lead so if V checks I think at this point we will have subtracted most of V’s range except AA and maybe KK, depending on the texture of the low flop. E.g. if it comes 3
66
and V checks we are most likely safe to either shove. If V has Ax then we probably still race. I suppose we let 33 and some 6s see the flop, but probably not many…or raise flop and still probably GII on the turn?
As played I think we can give up on the flop if V bets.
November 18, 2014
Offline
I don’t think calling here is going to be good. If we flat as Andrew says we will give equity to hands that would be folding (i.e. KT, QT, etc) while I think no matter what the flop is, if we push, only better hands will call while all the rest will fold anyway so in my view this is just giving the villain equity.
What worse hand folds to a pre shove but calls a flop shove? Any 9+ he’s opening that hit the flop is likely to be calling our shove, any hand we beat (i.e. KT that misses the flop) will be folding anyway and hands that may fold like AJ or AQ I’m not sure we want them to fold after the flop since with only two cards to come we are ahead.
All in all I don’t think flatting would achieve anything, I don’t see us winning more by flatting and pushing than by shoving.
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
41 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1
