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Aria Daily $125- I want to confirm that I have to call in this spot
madpenguin12
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April 6, 2015 - 5:49 pm
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Apologies in advanced.  I'm not sure how to use a converter, but here is the hand.

 

Blinds are 1.5k/3k/300 ante.  I have KJ of diamonds in BB and 100k chips (table chip leader)

 

Checks to cutoff who shoves his short stack of 12k.  Small blind shoves 21k into the pot.   I have seen BB make terrible plays with A6 and A7 suited and calling shoves with K10 and A9 etc so I figured he was light.

 

I needed to call another 18k to have a chance to win 39k (including my BB)…so better than 2:1 odds.  I've seen short stack shove 3 small pairs in the last 20 hands, and since he was in cut-off vs. my BB, I was definitely calling him (this is what I am thinking before the hand was dealth).  The SB shoving all in is what I didn't expect, but it was only 6 more BB to call and have a chance to knockout 2 people (I don't usually care to knock out people unless it's a knockout).

 

Question:   I have about 100k chips and there are 30 people left out of 127.  12 places paid, but its all about top 3.  I would call off 20% of my stack but I've also been steadily picking up pots.   Do you call or fold here?  Given the wide shove ranges of both players, I was convinced that there was no way I could fold 6 more BB in this spot.  Average stack in the tournament is about 42k (14 BB).  The counter is that I was also picking up pots uncontested at least 1-2 orbits, with ~ 7k in pot pre-flop.

 

Thanks for your time, 

Madpenguin12

Foucault

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April 6, 2015 - 9:09 pm
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Try putting both of these players on ranges and run them through an equity calculator. Don't forget that you'll need to do this once against both players' ranges for the main pot, then again against SB for the side pot.

madpenguin12 said:

  The counter is that I was also picking up pots uncontested at least 1-2 orbits, with ~ 7k in pot pre-flop.

 

Thanks for your time, 

Madpenguin12

Just because this happened for two orbits doesn't mean it will continue indefinitely. It may not feel like it, but there's a lot of luck involved in picking up pots uncontested. Every time you raise pre or bet the flop and get folds, you got lucky that your opponents didn't have calling or raising hands. You may well have a small edge on these raises because your opponents' have overly tight calling/raising ranges, but you can't extrapolate from that to assume that you've got a risk-free 8BB or so coming to you every orbit.

madpenguin12
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April 7, 2015 - 10:29 am
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Thanks.  I ran it in poker stove and got around 36% equity.  I think it was close, I think what pushed me to call was that I knew the SB was also tilted and put him on a pretty wide range.

 

Poker Stove results:

Side pot against SB (he had 9k more than cut-off shove).  Based on my range that I had him on, I had a 51.7% equity using Monte Carlo.  Therefore, I am happy with my call against this player.  Unfortunately, he had more than the cut-off short stack who was a pretty good small stack player (he shoved 4 times with 55, 66, 99, and JJ).

 

Against small stack and SB range for the main pot- I would normally put the small stack on a tighter range but since blinds had just gone up, he only had 4 BB left and he was in the cutoff, I am putting him on a very wide range. This gave me an equity of 36%.

 

Based on results above, I'm pretty happy with the call.  I was unlucky to run into AA against the SB, and cutoff had 66 again.  Overall, I figured I had a flip against SB for an 18k pot (6BB), and 36% equity in the main pot of an additional 39k.  

Foucault

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April 7, 2015 - 12:06 pm
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Sounds good, MP. If you're a favorite in the side pot, then it's definitely a call. Usually in spots like this the question is whether your edge in the main pot is large enough to take slightly the worst of it in the side pot.

madpenguin12
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April 7, 2015 - 4:41 pm
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Thanks, Foucault

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