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Are you Raising, Calling or Folding to Villians River Lead in this spot?
hititflush
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April 29, 2014 - 1:05 am
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Interested in peoples thoughts when Villian Leads River in this spot….

Context:  Regular 'Home Game' on stars, players are generally TPE members and MTT regs at mid, low, micro stakes.

10 players in the game, so we start 5 handed on 2 tables and when we loose 1 player, we go to full ring. I have 1.4k hands on Villian and he is playing over that number of hands – VPIP:22, PFR:16, Tot 3 bet is 6.3 (however in the BB, his 3 bet is 9.5, this is the spot he is most likely to 3 bet according to the stats)   Very early on in game, starting stacks are 5k, so we are obviously very deep with blinds at 15 / 30…. To the flow of the hand:

Seat 3:  BB (villian) (5473 in chips)
Seat 4:  UTG (5026 in chips)
Seat 7:  CO (4197 in chips)
Seat 8:  Hero (5379 in chips) – Button
Seat 9:  SB (4925 in chips)
SB: posts small blind 15
BB: posts big blind 30

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to HERO [Aspade Adiamond]
UTG: folds
CO: folds
Hero: raises 45 to 75
SB: folds
Villian: raises 105 to 180
Hero: raises 180 to 360
Villian: calls 180

*** FLOP *** [7club 6diamond 3club]   POT – 735

Villian: checks
Hero: bets 360
Villian: calls 360

*** TURN *** [7club 6diamond 3club] [5diamond]   POT – 1455

Villian: checks
Hero: bets 450
Villian: calls 450

*** RIVER *** [7club 6diamond 3club 5diamond] [6heart]  POT-  2355

Villian: bets 1389

Hero:   Raise, Call or Fold? and why?  

Foucault

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April 29, 2014 - 10:50 am
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Well, it's pretty obvious that you have a big pair, and it doesn't feel like he's trying to bluff you off of it. I can't really see him doing this even with QQ for value, so I'd fold.

jacobsharktank
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April 29, 2014 - 11:19 am
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I think I covered this to death in the KK thread just a bit ago, but it's a similar preflop situation. If his 3b stat for Bb is that high at this stack size, and not in actuality lower this deep (for instance, my 3b range 150bb deep from bb is much different than my 3b range 20bb deep). But if it is that high,- it's incredibly wide. There are 120 combos of hands that make up the 9% figure. TT+/AK is only 3.5% for instance. Add AJ+AQ, KQ, 88/99 and we still only have 106 combos. I don't really know his general strategy so I can't necessarily comment on it being good or bad, but this is ridiculously exploitable. Like 42 of his hands don't have a pair on most flops, and he's out of position. 40% of his range is air on most flops! 17% of his range (88-TT) is going to dislike a bunch of flops and won't have better than top pair to the board.  

 

I wanted to back to the main point sorry lol. If his range is this wide, and you then 4bet him, his range does not remain the same if he puts money into the pot. He's likely not going to 5b with 88-JJ or AJ/AQ or KQ, no matter what size you make the 4b. So you've reduced his raising range down to QQ-AA, maybe AK. Those hands only represent 34 hands of his preflop range, or 32% What happens the other times? Well, right away we know that AJ/KQ both have to dislike their hands and fold (and be correct to, if youre 4b range here is only KK+, as even with a nearly 4:1 price pre, hes never realizing his equity since more money goes in postflop and his current equity is a static run out of all finite hands played out and accounted. So anyway back to the 3b/f range. If he folds AJ/KQ that's 31% of his range. If he calls with the rest, that's about the same. So he continues with 32% where you're doing just swell against (I mean… AA> all), he continues passively with a range you're crushing but again, he's not happy with his hand necessarily, he knows he has some sdv or that he needs to improve, so you likely won't even get a ton of money from him anymore).

 

If you call, though. You get to keep 100% of his 3b range in. The pot's 375 and you get a continuation bet almost always (I imagine his cbet after 3b is quite high if his 3b from bb is this high). If he cbets 80% of the time and cbets half pot, you expect to get 152 chips more. That means you only need to get an additional 18 chips (1bb!!!) out of him somewhere in the hand to make passing on your 4b in favor of calling the more ideal option. He's going to have a ton of marginal strength hands on a lot of run outs because his 3b range is so wide. We didn't even give him 9% of hands initially and already we see his hand strength deteriorates. I don't think running further math to illustrate that higher return you'd see by simply calling, as the work we have so far shows you potentially need to only generate 1bb more, and we're in a much better position to make money. Is his turn cbet and river cbet after 3b% high? 1500 hands isn't very many, but you should have a lot of spots that you can kinda look at his hands instead of having exact numbers. If you see he 3bets 88 in the bb, for instance, then you cover a ton of what I said simply because the rest of the range is within 88 and the top.

 

Summary- calling appears to net you a higher return than 4betting, especially if you 4b small when you do 4b. His range is so wide that unless he goes crazy when pushed on, you're cutting a ton of potential value away by 4betting. This happens because his range is then cut up. I understand the temptation to induce further action when you see an aggressive player act while you have the nuts, but if playing back is going to cause him to stop (and it will), then it makes more sense to let him have the lead.

jacobsharktank
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April 29, 2014 - 11:25 am
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I didn't even look at the board once I read stats and saw your 4b, but now that I see the hand, and see that he likely has you beat, it furthers my point. His range is so wide that pushing on him will stop you from making more money. This particular instance doesn't matter, though it shows us that if he's aware you have a big pair (and he probably is, I don't see him ck/calling twice to bluff the river, [i even tried giving him combo draws, but it doesn't make sense that he'd show zero aggression at any point and simply bluff rivers]), doesn't actually matter. Since he's ahead here, we know his range is even wider than I wrote, or different, and different would have to mean speculative hands that once again, will not continue to pressure). He's going to make more mistakes when you give him the option, and by 4betting, you only let him make 1 set of mistakes. Calling gives him multiple streets to fire with too many hands.

hititflush
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April 30, 2014 - 7:49 am
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Thanks Guys… Yes, upon reflection I do like the call line after his 3-bet pre. I think there is little doubt he would have lead flop and turn and dependent on sizing I sence I would have called down, I sence his line would have been bet, bet, check.

Flatting his 3-bet on the button I would also have a good portion of my button open range, as Andrew simply stated – it was pretty obvious I had a big pair, after my 4 bet pre – I may as well have shown him my cards…

It was the river lead that really through me in game… I was not happy with the way I played the hand…

On the upside, as it was early in the tourney, I still had heaps of BB's, I run it up and took 2nd, which was dissapointing as surprise, surprise I really wanted to take that one down…

We have 3 rounds to go, I am on top of the pts leader board for this cycle; with the winner getting a 1k ticket to a live event of their choice, I already have one x 1k ticket banked so am keen to pocket another for the upcoming WSOP APAC in Melbourne Australia, early October 2014…

Foucault

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April 30, 2014 - 9:40 am
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FWIW I don't mind the 4-bet, and it's not that alone that makes your hand “obvious” as an overpair. Your flop and turn sizing contribute a lot to that as well. When your opponent's 3-betting range is wide, then at least one of two things must be true:

1. It is a good idea for you to 4-bet with nutted hands; or

2. You should 4-bet a lot as a bluff.

Often, both are true. If Jacob's analysis is correct, a light 4-bet would be really good for you here because Villain will fold a fair bit immediately and then also fold way too much post-flop because he is giving you credit for a huge hand. If you disagree with Jacob's analysis, then 4-bet your AA. Even if you are going to flat a lot of big hands to a 3bet, AA is often not the best candidate because there is so much value in 4-betting it.

cousteer
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May 7, 2014 - 6:54 am
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His call would have hurt me, as I had KK.

Thanks for posting it bud!

jacobsharktank
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May 7, 2014 - 9:49 am
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^^ wrong hh?

hititflush
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May 8, 2014 - 7:11 am
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cousteer said:

His call would have hurt me, as I had KK.

Thanks for posting it bud!

 

Yes, was a painful fold… I think I should have called your 3 bet pre and let u keep firing. 

 

Well played mate.

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