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August 31, 2013
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Hi
Villain has been tight, he is running 16/13/2.8 over 180 hands, it's one of the first hand he played since I'm at the table. We are near the bubulle of a 50€ (25 left, 19 paid), the average stack is about 100K.
First, it's not a level, some might says it's a snap but I don't think so, his range is very AK heavy, I don't think he is shoving AJ w/ 20BB in that spot (regs don't do that on french site). Two things I want to discuss about this hand:
– First, in term of pure EV are you calling, I guess he is not shoving AA/KK (maybe QQ) here, his range is probably, AK, 88-JJ (QQ), AQ maybe, sometimes AJs but I don't think so… (I'm 43% favorite against that)
– Second, for the EV of your tourney are you calling? Is this a good time to gamble and hope to play a flip against JJ, I have 60K, the average is 100K, the structure is pretty good, 12 min level… Is it better to wait a better spot or are we calling to build a big stack and have a good chance to win the tourney?
Winamax No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1500.00/t3000.00 Blinds/t430 Ante– 8 players – View hand 2310078
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MP2: t147841.00 49.28 BBs
CO: t157984.00 52.66 BBs
BTN: t52776.00 17.59 BBs
SB: t121899.00 40.63 BBs
Hero (BB): t63965.00 21.32 BBs
UTG: t86540.00 28.85 BBs
UTG+1: t65916.00 21.97 BBs
MP1: t80394.00 26.80 BBs
Pre Flop: (t7940) Hero is BB with Q
A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t65486, 5 folds, Hero ????
ty ^^
September 16, 2013
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Was he min raising or 3x from that spot earlier? Do you think he is the type of player that would open jam 20+ bigs with the top of his range? Seems to me this would be 55-JJ, AJs and maybe AQo which you are 49% fav against. Would he do this because he is uncomfortable playing post with this stack size? Seems awfly weird to me. JMO.
September 29, 2012
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First let's do the math to see what odds we want to call off with. We have to call 60,965 to win 68,465 do out direct pot odds are 1.1:1 so we need 48% equity for a break even call. I think we need to add 5% as an edge to account for ICM. So we need something like 52%/53% to call comfortably here.
What reasonable range can we compose to get this much equity?
Against 77+, ATs+, AJ+ amd KQ we have 50.6% equity.
If we chop off AA and KK from the range, now we are getting 53.4% equity and we are getting enough equity, but he needs to chop off AA and KK 100% of the time for this to work.
However, if we add in just a few random bluffs, (in this case I added suited connectors JTs – 87s) we get 54.5%, and he does not need to cut off AA and KK from his range 100% of the time here.
I think it is reasonable to think he may have that range with a few bluff and quite often the top of the range is not in there, therefore, I think this is probably a call.
August 31, 2013
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acesfull44 said:
Was he min raising or 3x from that spot earlier? Do you think he is the type of player that would open jam 20+ bigs with the top of his range? Seems to me this would be 55-JJ, AJs and maybe AQo which you are 49% fav against. Would he do this because he is uncomfortable playing post with this stack size? Seems awfly weird to me. JMO.
Thx for answer. He was minraising. I don't think he is shoving AA or KK here, maybe QQ. A lot of players (bad regs and fish especially) are shoving big or raising x4 pre with AK/AQ/JJ/TT on french site (I know, we sucks at poker 
) because they don't want/know to play postflop.
jjpregler said:
First let's do the math to see what odds we want to call off with. We have to call 60,965 to win 68,465 do out direct pot odds are 1.1:1 so we need 48% equity for a break even call. I think we need to add 5% as an edge to account for ICM. So we need something like 52%/53% to call comfortably here.
What reasonable range can we compose to get this much equity?
Against 77+, ATs+, AJ+ amd KQ we have 50.6% equity.
If we chop off AA and KK from the range, now we are getting 53.4% equity and we are getting enough equity, but he needs to chop off AA and KK 100% of the time for this to work.
However, if we add in just a few random bluffs, (in this case I added suited connectors JTs – 87s) we get 54.5%, and he does not need to cut off AA and KK from his range 100% of the time here.
I think it is reasonable to think he may have that range with a few bluff and quite often the top of the range is not in there, therefore, I think this is probably a call.
Thx for the math. I'm pretty sure he is never shoving bluff here (hands like 87s, JTs, KQ etc) especially near the bubulle, it's only value. I'm also pretty sure he never has AA and probably not KK. The big part of his range is really AK/QQ/JJ/TT, but I can't tell if he is shoving AQ,AJ,99,88 too, it's possible but I'm not sure at all.
AQs is really the limit in that spot. AJ was clearly a fold to me and AK obviously a snap, even AQo is probably a fold here. I think with AQs we are a slight underdog. I think our equity is at least 43% for the worst case scenario and probably around 50% for the best cases. So the question is even if we think we are slightly behind his range, is this a hand we want to gamble with to increase our chance of winning or do we want to wait for a better spot with our 20BB
September 29, 2012
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The problem I have with this hand is the villain's open shove with over 20BBs with no antes is so akward and strange that it really is hard to understand what is going on in his head. I agree that most likely the top of his range is not there. But positionally, he's in sort of an early/mid position crossover spot. Some players are still tight there and soe open their rnage just a tad from there. I would open AT/KQ/77 from there, but I'm opening for a min-raise not a shove. Is he probably doing this with the middle of his range? AK/AQ/99 – JJ and min raising the top and bottom?
If this was out of the ordinary for him, it typically falls into a category of sa hand likely to be ahead at this point of the hand (mid pairs/big aces) but he doesn't have confidence in his post flop play.
But all in all, if you only think you are getting 43% and you are confident in your read, then this is a fold.
Whether I would risk my MTT in this spot if the math is on my side, I would say yes. If I was getting the right price for my hand, with the proper edge i typically look for, I'm willing to get all in.
August 31, 2013
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jjpregler said:
shove with over 20BBs with no antes
sorry, there is a 430 ante, I did'nt see that the converter didn't take it in count, I don't know why (I tried to repaste the HH but that still doesn't work). The pot preflop is 7940 in reality, might change the math you did, sorry…
jjpregler said:
I would open AT/KQ/77 from there, but I'm opening for a min-raise not a shove. Is he probably doing this with the middle of his range? AK/AQ/99 – JJ and min raising the top and bottom?
I'm also minraising my entire range here and opening 77/KQ/AT, but I think he is minraising that because he doesn't want ot shove 20BB with that and is probably planing to fold vs a 3bet or maybe call shortstacks… He is just shoving AK/JJ etc because he doesn't want to play postflop with those kind of hands… But I can't be sure of that it's why it's pretty close
September 29, 2012
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NoirDesir87 said:
jjpregler said:
shove with over 20BBs with no antes
sorry, there is a 430 ante, I did'nt see that the converter didn't take it in count, I don't know why (I tried to repaste the HH but that still doesn't work). The pot preflop is 7940 in reality, might change the math you did, sorry…
Yeah. That changes your pot odds from what I figured out earlier. with these new numbers, you have to call 60,535 to win 71,475. Your pot odds are now 1.2:1 and your need 45% to break even. So I'd be looking to try to get at least 48%+ equity to call.
June 8, 2012
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Seems very TT/JJ heavy. If we didnt have an A id say AK heavy too but we block one, obv he can still have it. Throw in 88/99 and run some numbers. Prob a break even or slightly ev call but prob not $ev. Id call against the looser spazz but fold against a nit.
October 21, 2012
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I like a fold here. I may be more likely to call it from the btn since there will be more dead money in the pot assuming the blinds fold.
June 11, 2012
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i fold. not even worth looking at numbers
we should have such a big edge that we can neglect these samll +EV plays.
and 160k does not really change much to 80k when the average is 100k
cheers
June 8, 2012
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we have 21bigs! and yea players on winimax may be terrible i dont know…..but you are reaching by saying we shud have such a large edge that we shud neglect slightly ev spots…when we have 21bigs lol.
“finding better spots” and “I have an edge” are the most over used terms in poker and it kills me when the tpe community uses them religiously. if we are 100bb deep and we are in a marginal spot for like 50bb when weve been chipping up nicely without showdown, stealing blinds, 3b, etc…then yes, we have an edge and shud pass on a marginal ev spot. THIS IS NOT ONE OF THOSE!
and im not saying its a call either. frankly, I think ICM will most likely say to fold.
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