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AQo UTG - nearing bubble in WSOP Circuit Turbo

wager9

Small Stakes Grinder

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January 5, 2015

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March 11, 2015 - 4:04 am

Blinds: 1500-3000-500

Stacks: Hero has about 90k – 2nd biggest at table. Villain covers. Average stack is about 68k and there are 24 people left. Top 15 pay.

V: Good player. I think he is a tournament pro. One of the young wizard types (in fact he looked like Harry Potter a bit). Seemed smart. Played Aggressively but didn't seem reckless. Have not seen him show down anything out of line and have nor real reads on his 3 bet range as much of the pots he is winning do not go to show down.

Hero Image: Solid TAG play. V probably thinks I am a good player. I've been playing aggro and have made some solid reads and calls in past few mins.

V and I just got into a hand where he raised UTG and I floated him on a 269r flop and he shut down and I took pot on turn. He seemed frustrated a touch as his c bet was large and the blinds are getting up there.

Pre-Flop: Hero raises UTG with AQo to 7000. V raises to 23k from CO. SB goes AI for less (was like 16k).

I called – should I have played this differently? Why?

POT= 50k with 16k side pot

FLOP: 224r

I check. V bets 25k…What to do?

theginger45

TPE Pro

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March 11, 2015 - 9:20 am

I don't think calling for >25% of your stack OOP is really an option here. You're in a shove-or-fold spot at these stack sizes, especially with the overlay from the short stack which is going to make postflop play a little uncomfortable when it creates a dry side pot.

That said, I think villain's >3x 3bet here is pretty strong-looking. It's not the kind of sizing I would expect from a 'tournament pro', honestly. If you think he's bluffing with a reasonable frequency it's definitely not a bad spot to shove, given the overlay and the strength of your hand. I'd go so far as to say that if this sizing is common for him, I'd expect him to be bluffing here often enough for shoving for 30bb to be very standard.

On the other hand, if he hasn't shown an inclination to make bigger 3bets in general, I'd say a bigger one here is likely to be stronger, and you're likely to have very little fold equity, so folding is probably best.

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