April 26, 2013
I am pretty sure my line wasn't completely wrong. Again I just wonder if a fold would have been better.
We are sitting 7-handed, 16 players of 4231 left, blinds are 50k/25k 6250 ante. I am 4th in chips with 1164k (M ~10)
I sit in the SB with AQo. UTG 2.5x opens, he has 1550k (M~14), he is a loosing player over ~1000 tourneys, I have no other info on him (played only 4 hands he folded). UTG+1 3bets 2,25x of the initial raiser, his stack is 1700k (M ~17). I played 43 hands with him, he is super aggro, probably a winning reg, I see him playing in expensive tourneys like the Big $162 and $551R1A. His stats are blocked, but his VPIP/PFR/3bet is 28/22/19, AF = 5.0.
It get's folded to me and I shove.
My thought process was: the sicko-reg may just try to steal against the wealk player, showing a strong EP 3bet, or he has a range that I still got good odds against, he will probably call with AQs, AK and maybe TT+, but I guessed there were a lot of bluffs in his range.
Now he showed up with JJ and called (the UTG raiser folded to my shove) and won with JJJ against my flopped ace. :s
The only reason I am asking if the shove was correct is, because a) I have no info on the UTG-raiser and b) I wonder if my assumption of the UTG+1-reraiser beeing light often might be a little too optimistic.
Great hand to post btw, I wanted to do the math on this one:
your stack = 1,164,000
dead money after UTG fold (antes, blinds, and UTG raise) = 243,750
villian effective stack = 1,164,000
total pot after villian calls = 2,571,750
So, you are risking 1.16 million to win 2.57 million
1,164,000 / 2,571,750 = 45%
This tells us that you are contributing 45% of the pot. I ran AQo vs JJ in pokerstove and you are 43-44% to win (the difference in percentage depends if he has the same suit as you or two different suits).
Conclusion:
For this hand, in this situation, you had to contribute 45% of the pot, but you were at best 44% to win. Very close! For this exact scenario, I think it's a fold. But this is Monday morning quarterback after sitting here analyzing with a calculator.
If I were you and I was in this hand, I would have done the exact same thing. I see a fish open UTG, then an aggro raise, I'm shoving AQ. I think he would 3bet with a lot less than AQ, and the only hands you hate to see are AA, KK, QQ and AK. Everything else you can deal with. Look at it this way. You put yourself in contention to make a final table with a healthy chip stack of over 2.5 million in a tournament of 4,231 people. And you would have crippled the aggro player at the table. You just lost a coin flip, that's all. It landed tails when you needed heads. That's it. You finished in the top .3%! That's quite an accomplishment! You should be proud.
GG Sen.
P.S. How did you know that the UTG player was a losing player and he had played over 1000 mtts? I only play on Bovada with anonymous players, so I don't think I can look it up. But if I ever go to other sites maybe I can use whatever program you used.
April 26, 2013
Thanks for the detailed analysis! Considering the fact that if I finished in place 3 for $4.5k (1st was $8.9k) I would double my bankroll, I think in the future I would fold here. Daemn. 😉
Chip EV might be very close as you pointed out, but money-EV is probably negative, especially considering the fact that I feel I had an edge on most players (there were a lot loosing players left).
Also I think you always have to consider his calling range, not the actual hand he called with. I'd say he might even fold TT here. But say he's calling with TT+, AQs+, AKo+. Then we are only 31,5% favourite to win the hand. Of course there are some bluffs in his range, so when he folds often enough we might be good here again.
About the players: I looked them up on officialpokerrankings.com. That's what I always do when I come close to a FT.
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