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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy AQo facing 3b from new player on BT…

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AQo facing 3b from new player on BTN - 30 bigs, what's your play?

jamo

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November 16, 2012 - 6:19 pm

Villain has just joined the table two hands ago and has yet to play a hand. On Sharkscope he is a pretty successful player… 70.5% ROI $25.39 ABI over 3,436 MTTs so this is a smaller buy-in here. Do you think he's trying to own me here? Can we 4b jam here? Do we have any other options?

Poker Stars $8.00+$0.80 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t50/t100 Blinds + t10 – 6 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

BB: BB = 24.7, t2467
Hero (UTG): BB = 33.4, t3337
MP: BB = 36.9, t3691
CO: BB = 41.5, t4155
BTN: BB = 61.9, t6187
SB: BB = 45.2, t4520

Pre Flop: (t210) Hero is UTG with Q of diamonds A of clubs
Hero raises to t250, 2 folds, BTN raises to t650, Hero???

runningouts

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November 16, 2012 - 9:00 pm

This is a bit of a cop out answer, well I'm not answering you at all.

In a spot like this you can work out whether a 4bet shove is +ev using a tool call fpppro (…..ulator.php).

So you will need to first of all estimate what % you think he 3bets you here. You can use numbers from your HUD but you will have to allow for you being utg, your history, his image, his stack size, point of the tournament etc etc. So it will be a broad estimate.

Then use pokerstove to work out your equity against his likely calling range (I would guess something like JJ+ AK).

Then plug the numbers into that tool (your effective stack in this spot will be your stack AFTER your open, the betsize you are facing with be his 3bet minus your open). The tool will then tell the % of time he needs to fold to make your shove +ev. You know how often you think he folds because it is his calling range (%) divided by his 3bet range (%) x 100.

Bear in mind that you are estimating a lot in this calculation, so I would err on the side of caution, esp as I don't want to take a neutral ev spot here.

Hope that helps (if it makes sense)

jamo

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November 17, 2012 - 3:34 am

Thanks for your reply. I've put in some numbers and it suggests that I need to get him to fold 52% of the time. Given that this is his 3rd hand I really don't know if he's messing with me here. But if his call range is only 3% (JJ+,AK) then I'm sure his 3b range is much wider, and a 6.5% 3b range of ATs+,AQo+,KQs,88+ is definitely possible. Still not sure though…

duggs

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November 17, 2012 - 8:34 am

given its bottom of his buyin and he is on button v an unknown UTG open, i tend to just r/f here.

(i think given he is good its a valid assumption that he isnt going to 3b/f AQ KQs AJs A10s 88-1010, he would just flat them instead. his 3bet range is either 3bet/c like JJ+ AQs AK and his 3b/f range will be like 22-44, A2-5s A7o etc (not thats just hands he might do it with not the relative frequency which would vary from anywhere between 0% air which is reasonably likely to like 90% which is almost never happening, i dont think this is even air 25% of the time without dymanics so think this is an easy fold.

Also johns advice above is really good

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