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AQ suited facing an all in
smallcat66
Midstakes Master
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March 4, 2013 - 11:57 am
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Hi, I was in a live MMT with 800 runners. There was around 50 players left and I was in the money (400 Euro)> The next pay jump was 50 Euro more, going up to 20,000 to the winner.

I was on the button with 200,000 chips and the blinds were 4,000/8.000 with 1,000 antes. A player had just joined the table with over 500,000 chips and on his first hand pushed all in. It is folded around to me and I have AQ suited. The blinds were about to go up to 5,000/10,000.

What should I do here?

watch4sharx
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March 4, 2013 - 2:08 pm
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Fold. It sucks but readless I don't think you can rule out monsters from his range. This could be a little hello to the table from him but I can't see him jamming that much with nothing. Often times this can be hands that he doesn't want to play post like AJ or TT, but you really can't comfortably rule out the top 5% of his range. You'd be lucky to see JJ/TT/99 here.

dressed4succes
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March 4, 2013 - 4:48 pm
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so whats a likely range you must ask yourself to do this. generally speaking when people do this in such late stages its a pretty valueish hand. It might not be aces but its def no 7-2 most of the time.

 

To investigate if this is a call or not we have to run AQ vs the entire range of hands we put him on.

 

if he is a 100% retard and pushes ATC:

 

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     66.209%      65.31%     00.90%         1370002117      18776707.00   { AsQs }
Hand 1:     33.791%      32.90%     00.90%          690016869      18776707.00   { random }

we only have 66% euity meaning well lose it 1 out of 3 minimum

 

if you give him a bit retarded range:

 

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     53.169%      49.74%     03.43%          123484377       8526846.50   { AsQs }
Hand 1:     46.831%      43.40%     03.43%          107746010       8526846.50   { 22+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }

 

We have roughly 53% equity in this kind of situation we're flipping wityh all the pairs and only dominating a few hands.

 

In reality his range will be even a bit tighter most of the times.

 

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     46.820%      42.26%     04.56%           75983907       8194264.50   { AsQs }
Hand 1:     53.180%      48.62%     04.56%           87419484       8194264.50   { 22+, AJs+, AJo+

 

In this case we re even a dog which in my opinion represents a more likely range.

 

what hands should we call with with 25BBs?

 

AsKs gives 55%

1010 gives 58% equity vs latest range

JJ gives 62%

QQ gives 69%

 

id say my calling range here is QQ+

I fold AK prolly and def AQ

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