February 17, 2014
My original plan was to call off vs the OR because he was an aggro player (34/32 in 30ish hands) that had 0% fold to 3bet but when the other guy flats I saw a great chance to squeeze. Postflop after he flats my cbet I put him on, at least, an ace and given the action the only ace he might hold that I beat is AT or AQ for a chop so I decide to play it more conservative from now on. On the turn I check for pot control willing to call and re evaluate on the river, but when he checks behind Im pretty sure I have at least a hand as good as his. Thought about value betting the river but didnt see any clear hands to extract value from so I check and when he calls off I dont see myself folding there ever, because his line was quite weak imo.
Now, I dont see how I didnt think about TT or JJ which were possible holdings as well, but probably it was because he shouldve shoved JJs pre, right?
Here's the hand in the WeakTight replayer because Im not sure how good displays the conversion on TPE:
And just in case:
300/600 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by [WeakTight.com]
The FiveR
**Stacks:**
UTG dmfrol (7,129) 12bb
UTG+1 GRS1982 (3,643) 6bb
MP1 V-Delaney (10,890) 18bb
**MP2 GGuido92 (30,128) 50bb**
MP3 Gansolano (11,244) 19bb
**CO IraiseufoldAK (25,700) 43bb**
BTN duktor (15,755) 26bb
**SB ramabranch (25,961) 43bb**
BB dzfvefe (17,664) 29bb
**Blinds:** 300/600 Ante 75
**Pre-Flop:** (**1,575**, 9 players) **ramabranch is SB** Q A
*3 folds*, **GGuido92 raises to 1,500**, *1 fold*, IraiseufoldAK calls 1,500, *1 fold*, **ramabranch raises to 3,987**, *1 fold*, GGuido92 calls 2,487, *IraiseufoldAK folds*
**Flop:** 7 A J (**10,749**, 2 players)
**ramabranch bets 4,087**, GGuido92 calls 4,087
**Turn:** 7
(**18,923**, 2 players)
ramabranch checks, GGuido92 checks
**River:** 2 (**18,923**, 2 players)
ramabranch checks, **GGuido92 bets 6,000**, ramabranch calls 6,000
**Final Pot:** **30,923**
ramabranch shows
Q A
GGuido92 shows a full house, Jacks full of Sevens
J J
GGuido92 wins **30,923** (net +**16,774)**
ramabranch lost **14,149**
IraiseufoldAK lost **1,575**
March 8, 2013
I first just want to say that if you have 30-some hands on someone, a fold to 3bet of 0% is as close to meaningless of a stat as I can think of.
Pre-flop – if you are going to 3bet, make it larger — the pot is over 4500 after your call, and you are only making is 2500 more OOP. I would raise to at least 4500 and probably more if I chose to 3bet. That said, I think AQo plays better as a call.
Flop – I like it. I don't agree with your read that he has to have an ace here. I think he could certainly have KJ with a running flush draw, QQ depending on how he plays it pre-flop, even T9 with a running flush draw.
Turn – I like it.
River – I would probably bet/fold here, trying to get value from QQ, KJ, QJ, etc, but check-calling is fine. Folding to this size bet would definitely be exploitable.
March 26, 2013
Pre-flop: I definitely like a 3b but it needs to be bigger. You have given the villain great odds to call with speculative hands here in position with a hand that actually does not play brilliantly OOP. I would likely go to around 5,000 or so as you either want to take this down pre-flop or play a heads-up pot.
Flop: I would range villain something like broadway hands, medium pairs and maybe some stronger suited connectors given you made a small 3b pre-flop. That is a pretty wide range so c-bet is good and sizing looks fine.
Turn: Looks fine. I think it is quite close between betting and checking as there are still hands villain can have that might get stubborn but either option seems good.
River: I definitely bet the river. We get value from 2nd pair type hands or possibly worse if we bet on the smaller side. If we get raised then I think we have to fold as there can be very few bluffs in villain's range here. As played, I'm always calling, never folding or raising.
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