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AQ on bubble of 20r
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RonFezBuddy
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December 10, 2010 - 12:43 am
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Stone bubble of the 20r.  I have a decent amount of hands on this guy and he's got a high 3 bet %.  Do I want to put this may bbs in with AQ on a call here?

 

Poker Stars $20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t800/t1600 Blinds + t150 – 8 players

TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Gsweetshot1 (BB): BB = 31.2, t49940
Ozington (UTG): BB = 95.8, t153247
WyleECoyote1 (UTG+1): BB = 21.7, t34669
Apt555 (MP1): BB = 14.2, t22796
Hero (MP2): BB = 33.5, t53656
Achiles12 (CO): BB = 30.7, t49074
3P3NIPA (BTN): BB = 25.8, t41297
10IsTheYear (SB): BB = 29.5, t47164

Pre Flop: (t3600) Hero is MP2 with A of clubs Q of hearts
3 folds, Hero raises to t3600, 1 fold, 3P3NIPA raises to t41147 all in, Hero?

smm979
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December 10, 2010 - 1:24 am
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Tough spot, he has a nice 3 bet shove stack. How active have you been opening? If you’ve been very active and abusing the bubble, I think you have to call. I think there’s a good chance you’re way ahead here alot of the time unless you’ve been a real nit.

swet1
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December 10, 2010 - 9:31 am
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Have you been folding to his 3bets? What is your fold to 3bet %? Unless I feel he's abusing me (taking adv. of a high fold to 3bet %) I'm prob folding here….I don't like calling off (although you would have a few bb's left) on the bubble when I'm likely racing.

lespaulgman
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December 10, 2010 - 11:01 am
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If he has been really active 3betting and since it is the stone cold bubble there is a really good chance that he is pretty light doing this. Pretty sure my response here is “You sir get the Stack!”. You will still be alive if you are wrong, but given the situation and circumstance this could be a huge pickup for you.

Hagbard Celine
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December 11, 2010 - 12:30 am
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really think your image/history with villain is the most important piece of info here. i can see calling and folding but it all depends on how you've been playing and how you two have been playing against each other.

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RonFezBuddy
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December 11, 2010 - 12:44 am
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My image was fairly average…i wasn't that active and i wasn't showing anything down.

brentd22
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December 11, 2010 - 1:06 am
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I'll be honest I'm not sure anyone can answer that question.  AQ vs. certain villans with certain game flow is a snap and vs. others it's an easy fold.  Obviously my statement isn't profound…

 

What I really responded for is to ask a question…  I feel like a hot topic in MTT world nowadays has been is playing ubber tight around bubble being more or less profitable.  I'm sure there has been some real icm math done on this, but I have not searched for it.  My reasoning and I don't think it's wrong is that I always just assumed that it was always correct to play for 1st.  That being said it didn't mean I go crazy around bubble, but with certain table dynamics I start to min. raise like 75%+ from many positions around 5 to bubble.  Although if I am ~12bb's/less and there are many extremely short players I may just tighten way the F up.  I really don't “know” what is correct…   Using real icm math which way tends to be more profitable.  I'm sure various stk sizes have a large determining factor so if you know this information could you please post it.  

Ok slightly intoxicated during this post so I'm hoping my random rambles actually makes sense.  I know it does in my brain right now… sorta.

Hagbard Celine
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December 11, 2010 - 11:18 am
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seems super close then.

 

i gave villain a fairly tight range of 55-JJ, 2 combos of QQ, 1 of KK, AJs+, AQo+, KQs and we have 43.6% and need 43.4%. not sure if i'm right to discount QQ+ so much or if maybe he's jamming more suited broadway/pairs.

ttwist

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December 11, 2010 - 5:04 pm
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fold it looks like a chop or Ak its never Aj here at best raceing

hawkeyeK9
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December 11, 2010 - 5:24 pm
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I'm with ttwist…wait for a better spot and a lot more people spew there chips after the bubble has birst…avoid the cooler and get back in the tourney.

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