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AQ Facing Decision on Final Table Bubble 10$ MTT
mike666
Lighting Money On Fire
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September 10, 2014 - 7:51 pm
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So there were 2 tables left and around 13 people total. MP was pretty active (31/26 after 56 hands), however
didn’t see him limp before and wasn’t sure if he is good. Blinds seemed to be regular players. Not sure if it worth mentioning,
but several hands before the player that now is on Hijack did limp KK in late position, I raised him with 97s and did cbet
on KQ7 board and then I did give up, while he was trapping me with a set of Kings and them with a full house on the river (we went to showdown).

Blinds 12.5/25k ante 3200.

CO (683201)
Button – Hero (942274)
SB (781320)
BB (339832)
MP(465364)
Hijack (1769792)

Dealt to Hero [As Qh]

*** PRE-FLOP ***
MP calls 25000
2 fold
Hero raises 37500 to 62500
2 fold
MP calls 37500
*** FLOP *** [2h 6h 5h] (pot 181k)
MP checks
Hero bets 66666
MP raises 73334 to 140000
Hero?

derSchwartz
Sunday Major
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September 11, 2014 - 1:04 pm
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I’ll take a stab.

If the check raise is with something you beat, he has done a good job of representing strength.

He may have a better heart than you, in which case you are in trouble (unless his other card is lower than a queen and didn’t pair the board).  He may have been trapping the whole time with a great pair, in which case you are in trouble.  He may have flopped a flush in which case you are in trouble.

You are not committed and your stack is fine at this point.  He has put in 200k, is committed and you can’t push him off anything unless (maybe) you call the 73K now and make a move on the turn or river.

There are too many ways you can be in trouble and not enough ways for him to be in trouble for this to be a +EV situation.  If you had the Aheart and a different queen, at least you’d be drawing to the nuts and maybe a call would be in order.  But you can’t even feel too great about a turn heart lower than the queen because the Aheart and Kheart are so likely for him to have with the way he check raised you.  

If he doesn’t have the Aheart or Kheart I think it’s very likely he has a premium pair and limped with it, or he flopped a set or made flush.  If he doesn't have any of that, you're still likely to be doing only ok against him.

I fold.

theginger45

TPE Pro
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September 13, 2014 - 6:14 am
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Tricky spot. If we were deeper I might peel the check/raise, since he's not really repping a huge amount here (a few AhXh or KhXh combos, AhXx, or he might just be overplaying TT with a heart or something), but the problem is that you're going to face a shove on most turn cards. The pot is around 400k once he raises and he's got 250k behind. 

What turn cards would you be comfortable calling a shove on? A heart? Eh, that's a little iffy since he has a lot of Ax or Kx or hearts hands in his range, and it's doubtful he'd bluff-shove with so many hearts in your bet/call range on the flop. A non-heart ace? Maybe, but that's only two cards. A queen? Three cards.

If he had the same stack we do, I'd peel here and try to take it away on a future street or make a hand with our overs+flush draw. But as it is, I kinda think we just have to fold, as much as it sucks. I also don't mind checking back that flop.

Foucault

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September 13, 2014 - 9:22 am
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As played, I guess it's a fold, but I like ginger's suggestion of checking back the flop. He's not going to fold better or call with worse, and a check-raise puts you in a bad spot, so better just to pot control and take a free card. I think your hand is good enough to call a bet on any turn after checking the flop.

EllDan
Wilkes-Barre, Pa
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September 13, 2014 - 10:53 pm
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Seems to happen often in tournaments late stage. C-betting on dry flops wins often in early stages but does not seem to win as often late in tournament. Possibly better players able to read the dry board and/or they have stats on your frequent c-betting. Finding myself checking back on missed flops when late in a tournament .

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