With 20bbs and JQ in the BB vs an SB open, I’m pretty sure I’m shoving pre-flop here 100% of the time. 

His range is wide, your hand has decent equity and there’s a lot in the pot.

I’m a bit tied up at the moment, but I would suggest OP does the math on this to truly understand what to do (a good exercise for all of us, tbh).  Figure out the opening range, what range he calls you with and then your equity against that range in pokerstove and then do an EV calculation on it.  What you will find quite often is that fold equity more than makes up what you are behind when he calls you.

If you don’t know how to do it, I will come back later today and do it for you step by step.  It’s truly the best way to understand the math behind the right moves, especially in a cut and dry situation such as this one.

Hey Ninja,

This is a little off.  Let me explain how.  Your EV of a resteal is made up of couple different components.

1. The equity you gain when he folds

2. plus, The equity of your hand vs his calling range (this could be plus or minus)

3. minus, what you will have if you just fold.

What you list here below is your equity vs his entire range.  This equity is not part of the equation because we’re never up against his entire range, just what he calls with.  So if he’s opening with the following range:

22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+

this is ~33% of hands.

BUt only calling with the following hands
22+,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,A2o+,KJo+

This is ~23% of hands.  That means that he only calls you ~70% (23/33) of the time. and folds ~30%. 

I ran pokerstove and When he calls you have 38% equity. Here’s how to do the math.  First thing to do is to figure out the
outcomes all of the scenarios possible (assuming you are always shoving
or folding)

We shove, BB folds: our stack is 118599 and this happens 30% of the time  = 75310
We shove, BB calls, we win: our stack is 203198 and this happens 70% * 38% of the time = 28183
We shove, BB calls, we lose: our stack is 0 and this happens 70% * 62% of the time = 0
We fold:  our stack is 94599 (after posting ante + BB) = 94599 (subtract this)

(118599 * .30) + (203198 *.70 *.38) + (0 * .70 *.62) – 94599 = -4968

With the ranges you gave, this is a clear fold.  However, I disagree with the opening range.  I think it’s much wider from the SB nearing the bubble:

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,53s-52s,42s,32s,A2o+,K2o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o
this is ~63% of hands.

With the same calling range (22%) he actually folds 63.5% (23/66) of the time.  So now, you’ve picked up a pretty big pot 63.5% of hte time. This is the crucial, overlooked component of aggression EV.

I did the pokerstove of your equity when called and it’s 38% against his range.

We shove, BB folds: our stack is 118599 and this happens 63.5% of the time  = 75310
We shove, BB calls, we win: our stack is 203198 and this happens 36.5% * 38% of the time = 28183
We shove, BB calls, we lose: our stack is 0 and this happens 36.5% * 62% of the time = 0
We fold:  our stack is 94599 (after posting ante + BB) = 94599 (subtract this)

(118599 * .635) + (203198*.365 *.38) + (0 * .365 *.38) – 94599 = +8894

So with an adjustment of the opening range we see a tremendous swing in the EV.  And this sort of illustrates how powerful fold equity is.