November 18, 2013
$550 live event, blinds at $500/$1000/$100, I'm on button with $75k, villain in SB with ~$100k.
Folded to me on the button, I have A7 and raise to $2500. Villain calls.
Flop comes JJ4
Villain checks, I bet $4000, Villain raises to $9500, I call.
Turn is 6
Villain bets $8000, I call
River is A
Villain bets $14,500.
What should I do?
Playing this differently depends on how you perceive the villain. Can you provide any additional information on the villain in this case?
What range do you put him on when he flats the SB then c/r the flop? is he capable of having a complete bluff or semibluff with a weaker flush draw?
November 22, 2013
I agree that you haven't really included sufficient information about the villian to make an assessment. Against super nits (generally older players) all they can really have here is a Jack or 44. However, several (most) players are capable of reraising this spot with a wide array of hands. They could have a Jack or they may have a naked pair that they slowed played before the flop but now want to reraise to fold out flush draws, or they could be semi-bluffing a lower flush themselves. It really depends. If I was playing against an opponent with a wide range, I wouldn't mind repopping him to say 20K on the flop. At that point he really has to fold unless he has a jack. It looks like you are committed so he doesn't have much fold equity to try to rebluff with Khxh or whatever lower flush he could be holding. The most likely outcome is that he probably folds, and you win the pot. However, if he does jam you can reassess then, but at least then you know where you stand. Calling the flop reraise isn't horrible either. However, I don't know that I like calling the turn. The pot is around 24K if I am doing the math correctly, so that even if he's only betting 1/3 pot you're not getting the pot odds you need to chase a flush. You may have the implied odds but maybe not. I'd have to assume that my 7 out is no good and my Ace is a discounted out as well. There's an old saying that you shouldn't chase a flush on a paired board. Maybe that advice isn't always true but it also looks like he's trying to get called. I think a fold on the turn is borderline but I might make it. Once you call on the turn, I'm not sure hitting an Ace on the river helps your hand. His bet sizing indicates that he's asking for a call, which means your flush outs were probably the only outs that you had. Missing the flush but hitting your ace may not help your hand. Then again, his bet is so small in relation to the size of the pot that you only really have to be right 1/4 of the time to make the call and I suppose he COULD have missed a flush himself. I believe a river call is marginal at best. It really depends on my read of my opponent and the situation. I would have to have specific tells to make the river call.
*As to whether you could play the hand differently, repopping on the flop is probably the line I would take. It folds out a lot of hands and imo with a semi-bluff like this your fold-equity when repopping is greater than your actually equity when calling. If you repop on the flop there are only 3 possibly outcomes: 1) He folds-great result! 2) He jams-bad result but you probably fold and it makes your decision easier. You lose equity but you stay alive. 3) He calls. If he calls it also possibly gets you a free card on the turn. As evidenced by your actions, you were calling turn anyway, so if you were to repop on the flop and got a free turn card, you don't spend anymore money than calling flop/calling turn and you added fold equity on the flop. Imo repopping the flop is just a much more proactive line with the possible nut draw/semi-bluff.
November 18, 2013
Thanks for the responses. Villain is in his 30's, a competent reg. (I'm the 50ish guy who gets away with big bets sometimes because I look like the nitty old guy who wouldn't bluff). I feel like I played the hand too passively and agree with Wizards last paragraph: that best case would be repopping the flop to try and get the fold, if he repops, I fold without losing more chips. Or worst case, calling the flop and folding after missing the flush on the turn and saving a boatload of chips.
Villain ended up having AQ, left me with 35 or so big blinds. Frustrating hand because I let one hand get out of control which I usually pride myself on not letting happen.
March 26, 2013
I read this yesterday but didn't get time to respond.
I was thinking along similar lines to wizard in this spot in that 3betting the flop could be the best line. Obviously if the villain jams then I think we give up the opportunity of drawing to the flush but in this spot the flush might not be good if we hit so prefer putting on the pressure with 20k repop. If he folds, good result, if he calls, good result as we see a free turn card or could even jam turn if we sense weakness but obv villain can be trapping too and have us dead.
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