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November 18, 2013
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Here's the situation. I am in a live $125 MTT. The blinds are 400/800/75 and I am in the BB.
Villain is the big stack. He got his huge stack fairly recently, after raising JJ and stacking someone with a set of jacks vs OESD and then coolering someone KK vs QQ. He so far has only shown premiums and I'm still operating under the assumption he is opening a fairly tight range (can calling shoves even tighter).
Big stack hijack opens to 2000 and it folds to me in the cutoff with ATs. I've done some math,with assumptions on ranges that I'm happy to debate, that shows that shoving is profitable, but only at about +0.5 BB. My question is if flat calling with the plan of shoving most flops is better than a shove. If the villain is fairly tight, he may fold after a flop shove more often than incorrectly folding pre-flop.
I understand a strategy for analyzing pre-flop shove vs fold.
1. Construct an opening range for villain
2. Construct a calling range for villain.
3. Count combination of hands in each range to calculate probability of call and fold equity.
4. Calculate equity of my hand vs villain's calling range.
5. Do some math to compute the overall EV of the shove. prob fold*stack size if he folds + prob call*stack EV if called, etc.
What I need is a strategy to calculate the EV of a stop and go play and compare it to a pre-flop shove. This kind of villain may fold AK unimproved to a flop shove, or fold an underpair to the board on the times I miss, which would be to my advantage. At the same time, he may correctly fold QQ on an A high flop which would cost me a double up. Any suggestions on how to break this down? Or are the number of assumptions and variables too high to give a useful answer?
March 26, 2013
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You need to identify how many big blinds are left in your stack here to help review the situation.
As a general rule of thumb, I am shoving this all day with <=20bbs. You identified the villain as tight showing down good hands but surely if he is a capable player then he will be starting to raise a much wider range in the hijack with a big stack.
If you want to construct ranges here then I would assume villain can open all pairs, Axs, A8+, KT+, QT+, JT+, suited conns down to say 67s assuming stack sizes behind are not all <20bbs shove stacks otherwise you probably need to take out some of the lower suited conns.
His calling range is going to depend on how many bbs you have here. If you have <=10bbs I think he calls with almost all of his range. If it is 15bbs, then he may call with say 66+, A8+, KQ+, but not many other hands. If you are shoving 20bbs then maybe he calls 88+, AT+, possibly KQ but hands will be weighted here more towards value hands.
I think the stop and go is over rated in this spot. Postflop if you shove you are probably still going to get called by most of the hands he calls with preflop but you won't get the calls from worse hands that he might have called with preflop.
January 28, 2013
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For these kind of equations I think you would need to use the PQL methods and functions in propokertools. Cant really think of any other reasonable way to work it out. However, you could estimate using Flopzilla
November 18, 2013
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for the specific situation I had 12k chips, exactly 15 bb. but the point of my question was more to find a way to attack the analysis, not necessarily debate villains ranges for opening and calling.
I haven’t heard of pro poker tools or flopzilla. will check them out.
I think assuming villains are competent and adjust to their stack size is more useful in online mtts. live donkament players have many more fundamental leaks
January 28, 2013
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Even if you dont want to debate ranges you are going to have to assign ranges.
What I think you need to do to work this out is assign his opening range, check how that range hits flops in general (can use flopzilla), assign his stack off range on flops (overpair, OESD etc) and work out your equity (or how much you win by river – using propokertools) multiplied by the amount of chips that is in the entire pot when he calls + the amount of chips you win when he folds multiplied by how often he folds. You also need to account for the players behind you as you are not closing the action in this instance.
I was going to use a similar formulae for finding out how much we win on average when flatting <20bb stacks and check shoving flops however it needs two programs which need to be bought and i dont think i had the entire formula right.
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