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Analysing a bad call to a shove in the BB
Polaris
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June 22, 2010 - 5:12 am
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You are in the BB with 12bb total and AJo. Blinds are 100/200/no antes. MP1 shoves for 12bb effective. Essentially you have to call 11bb to win 24.5.

To use Celine’s math in his shallow stacks video: Equity to make call = 100*1/(pot/amount to call) +1

Equity = 100*1/(4870/2185)+1

Equity = (100 / 2.22) +1

Equity = 46%

 

At the time I assumed this was a standard tourney call. Working it out I know needing 46% equity it’s a bad call. Tbh though I am unsure what range I am supposed to give villain in these spots. How desperate are people with 12bb but no antes? Is it standard to give him 77+, AJs+?

 

Thanks

TaijiX
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June 22, 2010 - 12:17 pm
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Feels marginal, 12 bb mp feels strong and shouldn’t be that wide, probably best you’re hoping for is racing vs middle pair.

 

I’m gonna guess he had AK/AQ and you lost?

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Killingbird
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June 22, 2010 - 3:34 pm
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I’ll let the pros weigh in on this, but i think it is close, but leans towards a call.  When the math aspect is very close I fall back on my reads on the player.  If they have folded every hand for 5 orbits then i just dont think they are shoving that wide.  If they took a bad beat a hand or two before they could just be punting.

 

If I had to pick, I’d pick a call. 

Wein
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June 22, 2010 - 3:43 pm
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If they understand push/fold and are a thinking player, I call every single time.

 

If the player has shown no understanding of push/fold theory, or has played very tight, I just fold.

Polaris
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June 22, 2010 - 4:04 pm
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What’s the largest amount of BB’s that you would be willing to call?

Wein
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June 22, 2010 - 4:13 pm
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Polaris said:

What’s the largest amount of BB’s that you would be willing to call?


 

depends on my stack size

Polaris
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June 22, 2010 - 6:07 pm
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Sorry, like this hand he is short and open jams and has a similar stack. Would you still call off as high as 18bbs or more against someone who you perceive to know push/fold or is 18bb’s too high?

Polaris
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June 22, 2010 - 6:07 pm
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Sorry, like this hand he is short and open jams and has a similar stack. Would you still call off as high as 18bbs or more against someone who you perceive to know push/fold or is 18bb’s too high?

Wein
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June 22, 2010 - 7:05 pm
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Polaris said:

Sorry, like this hand he is short and open jams and has a similar stack. Would you still call off as high as 18bbs or more against someone who you perceive to know push/fold or is 18bb’s too high?


 

If this is a normal structured tournament, then I probably fold AJ with 18bbs here because someone’s 18bb shove is a lot tighter than someone’s 12bb shove, generally speaking.

katalanon
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June 22, 2010 - 11:56 pm
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Wein said:

Polaris said:

Sorry, like this hand he is short and open jams and has a similar stack. Would you still call off as high as 18bbs or more against someone who you perceive to know push/fold or is 18bb’s too high?


 

If this is a normal structured tournament, then I probably fold AJ with 18bbs here because someone’s 18bb shove is a lot tighter than someone’s 12bb shove, generally speaking.


Wein, what do you think is the shoving range of a thinking player with 12BB and no ante?

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