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December 12, 2014
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Had 2 examples last night of losing key pots getting stacks in BB v SB both times with Ace Rag in the BB.
I think this is a mistake but in game I just thought the SB was stealing & wasn’t really hoping for a call.
Small stakes but if the Ace hits here it probs puts me in 3 of 9 at final table with $500 for 1st place.
So why not go for it…….?
PokerStars Hand #149262417662: Tournament #1487568843, $3.19+$0.31 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level XX (3000/6000) – 2016/02/22 23:10:39 WET [2016/02/22 18:10:39 ET]
Table ‘1487568843 8’ 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: HappyMonkey9 (89444 in chips)
Seat 2: JMR66 (79573 in chips)
Seat 5: AAirline (94148 in chips)
Seat 7: _[LKK]_90 (102012 in chips)
Seat 9: belgostar (68798 in chips)
HappyMonkey9: posts the ante 600
JMR66: posts the ante 600
AAirline: posts the ante 600
_[LKK]_90: posts the ante 600
belgostar: posts the ante 600
HappyMonkey9: posts small blind 3000
JMR66: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JMR66 [Ah 4d]
AAirline: folds
_[LKK]_90: folds
belgostar: folds
HappyMonkey9: raises 9000 to 15000
JMR66: raises 63973 to 78973 and is all-in
HappyMonkey9: calls 63973
*** FLOP *** [4c 8c 7s]
*** TURN *** [4c 8c 7s] [5d]
*** RIVER *** [4c 8c 7s 5d] [3c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
HappyMonkey9: shows [Td Tc] (a pair of Tens)
JMR66: shows [Ah 4d] (a pair of Fours)
HappyMonkey9 collected 160946 from pot
JMR66 finished the tournament in 10th place and received $16.36.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 160946 | Rake 0
Board [4c 8c 7s 5d 3c]
Seat 1: HappyMonkey9 (small blind) showed [Td Tc] and won (160946) with a pair of Tens
Seat 2: JMR66 (big blind) showed [Ah 4d] and lost with a pair of Fours
Seat 5: AAirline folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 7: _[LKK]_90 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 9: belgostar (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
December 30, 2015
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What was your read on V?
With no read I think I fold, but can’t fault the aggression either with only 12BB left. I’d feel better if I knew this was V’s standard raise sizing. If V has been tight I’m more inclined to fold.
I’m playing and learning at these stakes so I look forward to what others say.
December 12, 2014
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Cheers,
I had no read on the guy due to multi tabling which is something I need to work on. I think the 2.5x indicates more strength than a shove but if he knows I am thinking that he’s going to 2.5x me every time. Probs should have folded since I can afford to go through the blinds one more time and wait for a shove spot.
June 11, 2012
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yeah these 2.5x from low stakes players are generally strong.
Still i might see myself taking it to the streets and gii on favorable flops
December 12, 2014
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If it was a suited Ace I might stop and go with a piece of the board, not sure….
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Don’t see much wrong with this, I think villain could/should have a raise-folding range here and with an Ace blocker you block a lot of his raise-calling hands. HRC will tell you the answer for certain but I think folding here would be awful. If you’re not going to shove, you at least should be calling, in position with a good hand and good odds.
December 12, 2014
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Thank you. Dangerous how we managed to convince ourselves a fold would be OK. Probs being results orientated. Would you comment be specific to facing a SB or Button steal or from any stack at this table and position in the tournament?
December 30, 2015
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I’m really surprised to hear folding is a mistake. Even with immediate pot odds it seems to me fold or shove > call due to the effect a call/fold result can have on future hands (kind of like the butterfly effect).
If we call, what are we hoping to see?
– If we catch an A it could be good a decent % of the time (and we flop better a small % more), but even then, most of the time, I think our ~10BB shove is only getting called by better and folding out worse, capping the value at the pre-flop pot unless V C-bets with worse.
– If we miss and V c-bets we have to fold right?
– If V checks we could then shove as a bluff, but that is a trap some percent of the time
…I just feel like a call requires a rather narrow set of events to make it +EV. What is the best way to figure out the weighted average for each situation and get a number? Even then you would have to factor in the effect of those lost BB on some future hands when you call and fold. I guess I’m thinking that lost chips are worth more than won chips when the loss is not for our entire stack.
At least with a shove we can get some worse hands to call and generate some fold equity for the same pot we win sometimes by calling.
A fold leaves more chips behind for a little bit of fold equity or a larger double-up and another orbit to find a better spot.
Thoughts? This is still fairly new thinking for me so I’m looking for large or small corrections as I train my instincts.
February 5, 2015
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Not so sure a push is the best option here.
The bubble factor is way high. I expect a call and re-assessment is the way to go. You’re getting great odds from the BB to call and see what happens. Obv. with any flopped ace I’m all-in on the flop. Personally I don’t even hate a fold here. In these situations I feel folding and taking a ten bb stack entering the FT is the way to go. If I had the opponent covered by even 5bb’s I’d be more inclined to push. It is a very player specific spot, as others have pointed out. I feel the sb bet sizing strongly indicates strength. As the larger stack the sb is more likely to shove his more medium strength hands. A 10bb stack entering the FT in these 180 mans is not usually far short of an average stack. I am on my second whiskey here so I might be way off mind you! (If I were drunk I would definitely propose a shove-fold here…that is a joke btw).
February 5, 2015
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Hello MovieFX,
I agree with most of your post, but as I sit here playing Dark Souls 2 and supping whiskey I cannot think of many worse hands we might get to call…I can only think of A3 and A2, both of which would be in my R/F range.
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