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February 5, 2015
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Hey TPE’ers,
So as I play more tourneys, I am running into a similar situation pretty often. I posted a hand a couple of weeks ago where I shoved an over-pair vs. a c-bet.
This is a different kind of spot, but I think the critical theme is the same, which is…
…Shoving top pair with a low SPR.
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
9 Players
$10+$1
Blinds 1.8k/3.6k 9
UTG matijastars 245k
UTG+1 Gangsta`Sur 50k
MP1 K 2 da L 80k
MP2 JohnyZaz7 83k
MP3 ErroR13337 69k
CO 2aSi 31k
D dchivurin 71k
SB UhhMee 76k
BB Hero 67k
9 8.6k Hero is BB K 8
matijastars raises to 7.6k, 1 fold, K 2 da L calls 7.6k, 5 folds, Hero calls 4.0k
3 28k 8 7 4
Hero checks, matijastars checks, K 2 da L bets 11k, Hero goes all-in 59k, matijastars folds, K 2 da L calls 48k
2 146k, 1 all-in A
2 146k, 1 all-in 6
Hero shows a pair of Eights K 8
K 2 da L shows three of a kind, Aces A A
K 2 da L wins 146k (net +79k)
Hero lost 67k
matijastars lost 8.0k
So obviously I never put V on aces here in MP1… as he was checked to IP, I figured he could take a shot with a wide range. I suppose A/8 was possible, but pretty unlikely. I figured him most likely with a J/9…Q/T type of hand. Possibly a flush draw with hearts. I never even considered aces…maybe I should have.
Anyway the thrust of my problem seems to be that the shove is only ever called by better and folds out worse, but check-calling my stack away seems pretty weak, although this is how I would have played it a while back.
And even if V was on a flush draw, I think he was getting odds in any case.
Am I meant to be getting it in here with a low SPR?
Thanks in advance as always!
June 2, 2013
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I haven´t put MP1 on AA either…
I like to call the flop bet, as you said you only get called by better hands and will be in need for 5 outs to improve, if V don´t have a set, and you also have the original agressor in the hand yet to act.
You can consider you have a BDFD to improve also, one more out.
I guess if I call flop, check to V and he bets that Ace, I probably fold, even being a good card for V to barrel with, if was a Ace spade I probably check/shove.
When you call flop, you have about PSB behind, i won´t call on that turn a shove, and if V check turn to shove river you can decide if it is worth your tournament life. I call a small river bet I guess, having about 10bb behind to shove if my hand is not good enough.
June 2, 2013
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Or you can reraise small OTF, ~24k to GII… Not sure about this line because the pre flop agressor behind. Be nice to read more coments here.
February 5, 2015
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Hey again almo,
Thanks for your thoughts. When I read your post I didn’t believe I also had the pre-flop aggressor still to act…but it’s true. That makes my play that much worse. Although, if he had flopped well, I would expect him to c-bet that flop with all the possible draws out there.
I was thinking about this spot today…I know you say you’d have got away from the hand on that turn…which I agree with if i had played as you suggested and called off a street OTF. But this just makes me feel like my bet had some merit. I wanted to get V off the hand exactly because of the possibility of a card such as this falling. Thinking about it today I realised that bets like the one I made here do serve a strong purpose, even though they only get called by better and fold out worse.
The bet for protection does have some purpose then… there is my answer!
September 12, 2015
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I don´t agree with the MP1 having J9s and QTs in his range here. He has a 22BB stack and for him to flat an UTG raiser in this spot with six players behind him to act I think he should be super strong.
I think 88 and 77 would be push or fold hands preflop so I wouldn’t expect villain to have any sets. My worries would mainly be over pairs. I don’t see many combinations of flush draws either, AK and AQ maybe.
Sorry editing the part below because I made a misstake when I put in the numbers:
I put it in to the Pio Solver and if I’m giving villain a range of AQs+, AK, JJ+ it says call K8 of spades although Pio Solver doesn´t take the player left to act into account. It only solves for HU spots, so you should be even tighter here but bluff catching on the flop seems reasonable.
I also tried it with closer to the range you are suggesting with J9s+ Q9s+ K9s+ A2+ ATo+ KJo+ 77+ and in that case it also says to call but not raise. When raising a medium strength hand like K8 here you are turning your hand into a bluff. I think your hand plays better as a bluff catcher on the flop and get it in on a blank turn card.
September 12, 2015
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Looking at it closer, the difference in EV for shoving vs calling in the case we give him a tight range is significant, calling beeing more than double the EV. But in case we give him a looser range it is very close so maybe shoving is the easier way to go, considering we are oop and many turn cards will be bad for us. This is if you think he is calling preflop this loose of course. Tough one!
February 5, 2015
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Hey! Thanks for the analysis…I feel like I should pay you!
Of course, my brain is so advanced with this stuff it is as though PioSolver, Pokersnowie, Flopzilla and ICMizer were hard wired into my sub-concious! I ran all the analyses immediately in game in 0.02 nano-seconds…
The results came back…”Tough spot buddy”.
Seriously, I need to get more into these analysis software. I am enjoying HRC at the moment.
Anyway I am glad your conclusion is “tough one”. At least it wasn’t “easy one”!
Sure I can see what you are saying re: my ranging of his hand. But this is an $11 tourney, all kinds of craziness occurs, (including people over-calling with aces!).
So if I can ask a related question please? I come from the world of MTTsng’s, specifically 180 mans. What software do you think is essential for my transition into MTT’s? I currently use Equilab, HRC and Snowie (and HM2).
Thanks people!
Mark.
September 12, 2015
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I see your point on people doing crazy stuff in low-mid stakes and maybe in this spot you need to look in your HUD to see how much this player flats in early to mid position and draw a conclusion from there. In game it can be hard to think about all this though as we all know 🙂 Especially when multi-tabling.
I am pretty new to the poker softwares myself. I really like the Pio Solver and HRC for analysing hands and I use Poker Snowie sometimes as well. I’m guessing the post flop analysis becomes a little more important for MTT’s vs MTTsng’s in which case I think Poker Snowie and Pio Solver are really good. I find it important to have an understanding of range construction to understand the outcomes of the softwares though, which I find hard sometimes and I’m getting into more at the moment myself. I think any theory series by Andrew Brokos is doing a great job of explaining this and also Matt Janda at Cardrunners.
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