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TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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FTP 10r. 30 left.
3x UTG from an 18/12 then this shove from a fairly tight player (11/8 over large sample).
Full Tilt Poker $15,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1500/t3000 Blinds + t400 – 8 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge
da_gun_slnger (BTN): BB = 26.6, t79916
JohnyBlaze (SB): BB = 27.4, t82206
LH_405 (BB): BB = 14.5, t43547
XHZ0216 (UTG): BB = 31.3, t94032
JGpp1101 (UTG+1): BB = 50.6, t151791
13-SHARK (MP1): BB = 10.4, t31216
kittiesgomah (MP2): BB = 16.1, t48165
RonFezBuddy (CO): BB = 9.8, t29476
Pre Flop: (t7700) RonFezBuddy is CO with Q
A
XHZ0216 raises to t9000, 2 folds, kittiesgomah raises to t47765 all in, RonFezBuddy?
MP2's shove looks really strong w/ 15BBs vs a 3xpfr from EP and w/ 4 players behind. I'm thinking a range like 99+,AQ+ which you have 35.6% equity against. With just the MP2 to worry about you need 39% equity against this range so you should fold. If he is reraising lighter then it's closer to a call. But… you still have the EP raiser to worry about. I think this makes it a fold. Maybe my guess at MP2's range is a little tight… would like others' thoughts on this.
Yeah this is such a premium for us at this point in the game and as bad as I would want to snap it off there are too many red flags that tell me either big pair or AK plus we may end up 3way all in which suxs as well. I fold and hate the world.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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This hand probably deserves more discussion because i think this is a spot we find ourselves in ALOT.
Id be curious to hear others thoughts, but I think I am folding because the reraise looks so strong. UTG 3x and this guy jams…i mean, we are always flipping at best and of course this is AK a shit ton.
I'd lean toward folding here, but then again one of my screennames is “IH8Nazis+AQo”. However, I think this is close enough that neither decision will be that right or wrong. Hero still has a nice shoving stack if he folds, and calling with likely 35-40%ish equity to build a much bigger stack at this late stage in the tournament is a gamble you might not want to pass up (especially with an M of about 4). “kittiesgomah” reraise, while she has shown herself to be relatively tight, needn't be as tight as 99+/AQ+ and could include some smaller pairs/weaker aces/rare air as well since she still has some fold equity over opener. Plus opener's 3x open says to me that he is probably a weaker player (or at least old school or lazy), and therefore capable of making weak folds with odds or calls with dominated hands (AJ, baby pairs). Did you have any reads on the opener?
That's a lot of speculation, I guess. I'll change my mind to calling here to better position myself for a win.
This is a really tough spot. I lean towards a fold as well since we still have open jam FE. At what stack size do we just have to get this in despite the action? 6, 7, 8bbs??
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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lol glad everyone else finds it as tough as i did. I'll hold results for a bit more to see what others think.
Regarding the opener, didn't really have much of a read other than the stats. I was deeper and bigger stacked in the PS 10r at the time so I was focusing on that more.
TPE Pro
TPE Management
July 20, 2010
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this really sucks but i fold in this spot for sure. meh meh
July 3, 2010
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I'm tempted to go with it.
Kittiesgomah looks like a winning player so with a re-steal stack this never has to be just 99+ and AQ+ even though he/she has been playing snug. Player could also have some suited connectors mixed in to that range.
The UTG raise looks donkish to be honest. A lot of weaker players will 3X their middle pairs but also AK because they're scared to play post-flop. Knowing if 3X is his standard open would be helpful, though.
Yeah, I call and beat Kittiesgomah's JJ after the UTG guy folds. There. Case closed!
July 3, 2010
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FkCoolers said:
I'm tempted to go with it.
Kittiesgomah looks like a winning player so with a re-steal stack this never has to be just 99+ and AQ+ even though he/she has been playing snug. Player could also have some suited connectors mixed in to that range.
The UTG raise looks donkish to be honest. A lot of weaker players will 3X their middle pairs but also AK because they're scared to play post-flop. Knowing if 3X is his standard open would be helpful, though.
Yeah, I call and beat Kittiesgomah's JJ after the UTG guy folds. There. Case closed!
I mean, we're dominated by four hands and since we hold an A and a Q it's unlikely that someone as AA or QQ so we're only concerned with running into AK and KK for the most part. With our stack size I go for it to give myself a shot at the Final Table.
Sorry for double post. Must have clicked quote instead of edit to add the last paragraph.
June 11, 2010
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Gross spot Ron. Given your stack size and the players that acted in front of you and that it is unsuited I think I lay this down. My concern here is that there is a lot of strength being shown out there from tight players and if I am going to get involved (short stack or otherwise) I am looking for an opportunity with the maximum amount of live outs as I can get. Based on the action I am thinking there is a good chance my Ace is not good (AK looks like a real popular hand in there by one of them) and I am thinking that my Q isn't looking pretty (Good chance there is a KK out there, maybe a QQ). Cards being unsuited means that hitting a flush is going to be a lot harder so I am pretty sure there isn't a lot of life in my call other than some bold luck. I'd toss this in the muck (grumpy as all hell about it) and hope that at the very least I am rewarded with at worst a 7th place finish!
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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results time. I did call and UTG folded. The MP2 had TT and i binked a Q on the river.
I have to be honest i'm still torn on what to do here even after the discussion because i'm short and really do need chips. I'll ask the pros to look at this tomorrow.
At this point of tourney with a inicial pot of 7700 chips, a raise UTG might not mean much at all (seen u raising with A5o UTG :P), kittiesgomah 3bet shoves.
My range for a 3bet shove with that stack is 88+, AQ+.
Your AQ might not be in good shape if it goes to a 3 way pot, but also if UTG isnt really strong he wont be risking his tourney in a 3 way pot….You are so shortstacked that I think its hard to pass this one… and theres a lot of money in the pot.
I also think if hands like AQ, AK, have good value in first levels blind tourneys, they are absolut monsters when theres 30 ppl left and probably tons of players raising to steal blinds with garbage 😛
July 3, 2010
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Damn – was so close in my hand prediction.
If you feel like UTG will fold, and he should the majority of the time, this becomes super easy because you're racing a ton with the proper equity. Once in a while AK has you crushed but I'll take that chance without thinking twice about it.
UTG's calling range really should be QQ+ and AK and his 3X open can some times be a scared AK but shouldn't be huge pairs often at all.
yea its a gross spot…id rather be first in the pot with something like 8 10s instead of calling a 3 bet shove with AQ. imo ur at best a coin flip…but with 10bb i would be inclined to put it in.
u have about 55% equity in the hand verses his range i think the call is fine with your stack size ,
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