Home
(0 votes) 
June 2, 2012
Offline
Hard Rock Poker Showdown
$150/$150k Guarantee
Level 5
Blinds 150/300/50
Effective stacks 40 bigs (hero has 65 bigs)
All-in Call or Fold spot on the flop in a limp-fest hand…
So I’m in the BB and I have the image of ultra snug. The table has been pretty wild and loosy goosy with it going multiway almost always. So I’m playing a TAG style for now looking for good cards and good spots. I had only played 9 hands in the first 5 levels (about 12% VPIP) and only two hands went to showdown (QQ and 99 and both were over pairs to the board).
I get dealt KTdd in the bb. It’s a limp-fest. Gets to me and I check my option. 6-to-the-flop. Pot is 2,200. I have 20k behind (65 bigs).
Flop comes K-J-4 rainbow w/one diamond.
Checks around to the button and he bets 1400 (2/3 pot). Sb folds. It’s on me. I think we can all agree folding is not an option here? So, given my image, I decide to raise. I make it 4,100. I went on the larger size due to the amount of players left to act. I really don’t mind taking it down right now. I’m out of pos in a limped multiway pot. UTG jams 12,000 all in. Folds around to the button. He tanks and shows his table mates next to him his hole cards as he folds. He (seat 4) made sure seats 1-3 all saw what he was folding. The three players all started mumbling and it was obvious he was folding a K. and probably not just a king but a big king based on their reactions. I said to him you shouldn’t show, it’s not fair to the all in opponent that you’re giving me information.
So, easy fold right? Well it seemed that way at first. But I went into the tank. The pot size was 20k (2,200 pre + button’s 1400 + my 4100 raise + 12k of the all in). I had to call 8k to win 20k. I ranged him on being more bluff heavy than a big hand. Why? There’s a King on the flop, I have a King, and button folded a King. So not many combos of strong kings left. Basically, he has up to 4 combos of KJ, 3 combos of pocket 4’s, and 12 combos of QT open ender. He doesn’t have pocket kings as there’s only one king left in the deck. And sometimes he may show up with AA, JJ, and AK. Although I don’t see KQ doing this, I’m including it in his range.
** side note ** Btw some have argued that my range for him is incorrect. I disagree bc if he’s paying attention, he could possibly recognize that it’s hard for the button to show up with a big hand on this particular flop in this particular spot that has a hand strong enough to call off when a tight player raises and the utg ships. If he recognizes that I might have picked up on the button’s weakish range, perhaps I could be making a move and therefore he may surmise he could have some fold equity vs two steal attempts. My image was not passive tight. it was TAG. So just bc I’m on the tightish side it doesn’t mean I always have nutted hands. hence the AG in TAG.
Anyway, if I put all these hands in his range, I have 39.2% equity.
So, this is where I struggle. Is it a call or a fold? Equity is 39.2% and pot odds is 8k to win 20k. What is the formula? Is it as simple as 8 divided by 20 is 40% and the equity is 40% so it’s a 50/50 neutral ev spot?
I always get confused when trying to convert percentages to ratios. I can’t seem to quickly figure out the approximation in real time on the felt. Something I def gotta work on!
If anyone can recommend some good sites/books/articles that focuses on this aspect of the game, it would be much appreciated!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Offline
To calculate needed pot odds, it should be call/final pot. So, 8/28 = 29% equity needed. If you’re confident in 39% equity vs that range, it’s a call. Did you calculate your equity factoring in that a K is dead?
There’s a good lesson here, though: if you don’t want to play a big pot, don’t build one (ie don’t raise). I don’t understand what you’re getting at when you say, “given my image, I decide to raise”. What about your image contributes to the profitability of raising?
June 2, 2012
Offline
I guess my confusion comes from the fact that I always thought you’re NOT supposed to include the total final pot because you can’t “win” what is already yours. But I do see that you’re right. because we arrive at 29% doing it the other way (from another forum)…20k current pot divided by 8k needed to call = 20/8 = 2.5:1 pot odds and to convert to percentage it’s 1/2.5+1 = 1/3.5 = 29%. I just don’t get why we need to add a +1. Andrew, how would you recommend doing this math in real time on the felt? Is it just a matter of memorizing a few approximations? 2:1=33, 3:1 =25 etc, so that if I’m at 2.5:1 I can quickly figure it’s between 25-33?
In regards to raising, yes, you’re 100% right. My statement doesn’t make much…because it implies that I’m bluffing. What I was trying to say is that bc I felt I had a tightish image, I could TID right then and there and avoid being faced with tough turn spots later. Calling might encourage others to peel one. and if we go multiway on the turn, then what do I do? Continue to check call? That seem so fishy to me. If the action after my raise were to go utg all in and then there’s a call or a reshove, then I can easily fold. it’s bad poker I can see that now. I’m bloating the pot putting more money in not having a clue about what anyone might have or do. So…is folding better than raising? is calling better? I hate these spots lol
thx for the feedback
June 2, 2012
Offline
Regarding the dead K, I haven’t flopzilla’d it yet. I just used PkrCruncher on my phone, and I don’t think you can do card removal on that app. I got to the 40% by doing a worst case scenario range (AA, JJ, 44, AK, KQ, KJ, QT,). If I factor in the dead K, I feel like my equity would only improve. Plus some of the time he’s going to open hands like AA, JJ and AK so then again, my equity should go up making the call even better. I also don’t think he’s playing KQ this way very often.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Offline
If the only argument you can make for a raise is “Maybe everyone will fold” then it doesn’t matter that you have KT. You could raise with 72 and say, “I have a tight image, maybe they’ll all fold.” What you need to be thinking about is, what will happen when everyone doesn’t fold? Will you or will you not be happy with the situations you’re going to end up in? You’re emphasizing that you don’t like some of the spots that will come up when you call, but you also aren’t going to like some of the spots that will come up when you raise. Sometimes in poker you have to make the best of some uncomfortable spots.
I’m not going to be able to tell you how to play all of the spots that could possibly come up. You’re just going to have to use good poker skills: evaluate your opponent’s action, think about likely ranges, assess where your hand is relative to your range, and then make good decisions.
You’re out of position with a marginal hand, there’s no super profitable way to play it. Yes, raising is easier, but that doesn’t make it more profitable.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Offline
OK I guess that was a little unhelpful. Think about why you’re not folding the flop: it’s because you think you will have the best hand pretty often, right? So something has to happen to all of those worse hands that are out there. You’re right that your call might give others an incentive to call with them a bit more often, and that’s not necessarily bad for you.
On some turns, you’ll be able to say with confidence that lots of worse hands improved, your hand has gone down in value, and you’ll just check-fold. I’m thinking mostly of an Ace.
On other turns, such as a 2, few or none of them will improve. Then you’ll check again, and your opponents’ only option will be to bet those worse hands or check those worse hands. You’ll have to make a decision, based on the action and the turn and the price, whether you’re still getting the right odds to continue. I don’t know what you mean when you say that “seems fishy”. The one thing your opponents can’t do is bet often and also have you beat very often. It’s hard to have a better than KT on this board, and will be hard on many turn cards (though not on all). So either they rarely bet and you get to showdown cheaply, or they bet often and you catch a lot of bluffs.
You won’t always sort it out perfectly, but at least you give yourself a chance. When you raise, you ensure that you only/primarily put money in against better hands.
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
57 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1
