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AKs nearing bubble
Radriguez
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July 24, 2015 - 12:08 am
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This is a $2.75 Buyin(rebuy)  $1500 prizepool, $500 for 1st. 21 plrs left out of 170, top 10 ITM.
The structure is fast. I only have 13BB but I am in 8th place. 
BetOnline Poker Game #1474989070: Tournament #6505099: Hold'em 1500/3000 - 2015/07/23 20:45:26 PDT
Table '6505099-05' 10-Max, Seat #8 is the button
Seat 0: radnar (39394.70 in chips) - Big Blind
Seat 4: digbro (55326.05 in chips)
Seat 5: andrew722 (107184.80 in chips)
Seat 9: JimCan2 (21046.25 in chips) - Small Blind
Seat 8: Tund3r2 (28673.11 in chips) - The button
Seat 2: PFOS2710 (15453.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Breefer (59605.42 in chips)
JimCan2: posts small blind 1500.00
radnar: posts big blind 3000.00
*** HOLE CARDS *** 
Dealt to radnar [Ac Kc]
PFOS2710: folds
digbro: folds
andrew722: calls 3000.00
Breefer: folds
TOMCRUIZIN joins the table at seat #1
Tund3r2: raises 28673.11 to 28673.11 and is all in
JimCan2: folds
radnar: ???
 
Maybe this is a no -brainer, but should I be risking my whole tournament here? I do have him covered but I'd be crippled.
But any pair and I'm flipping. And there's the limper still to act. I don't really get ICM, but have been trying to avoid CALLING off my stack late, lately.
is this a def. call?
Radriguez
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July 24, 2015 - 12:09 am
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ps sorry the seats are all messed up. this site really sucks and so do their HHs.

Mr Longhit
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July 24, 2015 - 1:09 am
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Yeah its a shove. Villain has a lot of Ax and Kx that you dominate. Sure you have a flip against his PPs. But with blinds and antes and 50% of winning the hand, we are still quite happy to call.

Tank for 10sek while you do your happy dance and then call.

I really cant see any reason why you wouldnt want to take a huge +cEV spot like this.

Mr Longhit
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July 24, 2015 - 1:14 am
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Depending on the players at your table I would shove AJ+, ATs+ and 77+ I think.

This far from the money i would not think about ICM.

theginger45

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July 24, 2015 - 3:56 am
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As has been said, you're too far from the money to worry about the bubble. It's also more or less irrelevant which place you're currently in. You're crushing the shover's range, so this is a very comfortable call. The limper is almost guaranteed to fold, so there's no need to worry about that player. Just get it in and enjoy being up against AT/AJ/AQ/KQ a decent portion of the time, or winning some flips against pocket pairs.

jacobsharktank
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July 24, 2015 - 9:24 am
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[table]ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
5,116,364,352 trials (Exhaustive)
[/table]
[table=head]Hand |Pot equity  |Wins |Ties 
axky|63.29% |3,078,601,164|319,009,248
ax, kt-kq, 22-AA|36.71% |1,718,753,940|319,009,248
[/table]
 
[table]ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
3,143,790,144 trials (Exhaustive)
[/table]
[table=head]Hand |Pot equity  |Wins |Ties 
axky|57.46% |1,693,309,632|226,460,328
at-ak, kt-kq, 22-AA|42.54% |1,224,020,184|226,460,328
[/table]
 
This might help you feel better about getting it in.
Radriguez
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July 24, 2015 - 10:47 am
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OK makes sense. Thanks for doing the percentages there, those ranges look fairly resonable. GOod to know this is a 100% GII no doubt. Overall I think this is an area where I am usually too tight when calling (I do shove better, but prob still not wide enough) which leads me cash a lot but never have a big stack at FT's. I should be getting it in, in these situations where I am crushing V's range, and not worrying about getting to FT whatever so much. Go big or go home (if my range is winning) basically. Lotta luck needed in these tourneys, I need to embrace it.

 

FWIW, This V showed K3s and turned his 3 to cripple me. So I just needed to know it was the right thing to do. I made a note on him and moved on. Thanks guys very helpful.

jacobsharktank
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July 24, 2015 - 11:05 am
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[table]ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
9,451,918,080 trials (Exhaustive)
[/table]
[table=head]Hand |Pot equity  |Wins |Ties 
k2x-kax, 22-aa, ax, kt-kq|33.01% |2,893,655,496|452,092,092
ak|66.99% |6,106,170,492|452,092,092
[/table]
 
suited king, all aces, kto-kqo, all pairs, 67% whee. yah i kinda think how people play this stack size depends heavily on the study habits of the person. when i first started really learning poker, i just spent a lot of time with pokerstove and paper, because most of what i dealt with was sngs and small field mtt final tables. <20bb's was like my only profit center. I think I even told someone once I was fine waiting and waiting to fold down to that stack size if my table was difficult just because i knew they'd fuck up at that stack. what's funny is i see people in cash game forum/threads talking about being in trouble spots against "short stackers" which is really like 50-100bb and they're all like 300-500bb deep. in my mind, it's all a bunch of math and you can learn study it for a while and find a ton of value, especially at lower stakes. my guess is at higher stakes, people are more likely adept at the size, at least what becomes profitable and not profitable. but yah youll see people fold too often or shove not often enough, or some will call too often and still not shove enough. i once saw a guy fold and fold and fold with 15bb and then finally snapped blind vs blind vs a good player and tabled 87o.
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