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August 21, 2016
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My first post here.
Live $250 deep stack (25/50 15,000 starting stack). The villain just sat down on my right 25 minutes earlier. Is a reg because 4 other players and the dealer welcomed him to the table and knew him by name. Played probably 25% of his hands and made some good plays at a few pots before our hand. 2 other notable players are at the table. The table chip leader is 2 seats to my right who KO’d 5 players in the first 2 hours but variance has caught up to him and has spewed off 40k in the last few orbits and a guy 4 spots to my left is seeing most flops and chases. The rest of the players are older guys playing either a rock or loose passive style.
This might be of some importance. Just before the hand, the chip leader and I were talking about a hand early in the tournament where I folded a full house to his overbet shove, maybe my next post will be about that hand. But the villain complemented me on the fold and said he couldn’t of done it. Anyways here is the hand.
10 handed, 300/600/50 (1400). Villain UTG raised 1600, probably 99+ and suited broadways. I shove my AKs from UTG+1 for 11075 (he had me covered). Im sure it was the right play against his range and a spewy BB. But after the hand I got to thinking about calling and wondered if it could of been a better play at that table at that time.
Here are some of the reasons I thought might make calling an ok play.
If it ended up heads up Im in position and have some wiggle room to maybe make a move against a thinking player if I don’t hit the flop.
If there is a caller or 2 or 3 my decision on the flop is as easy as it gets.
The spewy BB might squeeze and fold out a few hands my shove wouldn’t of had.
Any of the other players could 3 bet and if there is a 4 bet/call from UTG or any of the rocks I could still possibly fold.
Im sure I am just over thinking it, but the table dynamics at that time had me wondering if calling could of been the better play. If I had to fold the flop in a multiway pot or missed the flop heads up and went with a floating line but had to fold to a 2nd barrel. And I feel comfortable in my 10-15bb game in this game because I doubt anyone besides the villain would know how to adjust.
Thanks for any responses.
May 19, 2016
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If villain really is playing about 25% of his hands, his range should be a lot wider than 99+ and broadway hands. Personally, I like a smaller three bet here. You can induce shoves from the weaker hand ranges of the villain and BB, and if a rock finds a hand and four-bet jams, you can still decide what to do. Given your description of the table, I feel like your jam only gets called by a better hand.
Also, do you mind me asking where you played this tourney?
August 21, 2016
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I guess his range could be a little wider, but not much though. I think he wouldn’t raise any small PP, suited connectors below J10 and weak Ax. Not a lot of pots that went to the flop heads up. Usually 3 or 4 players to a flop. So probably folding those hands or maybe limping with the small pairs and suited connectors. Also I forgot to mention that there was less than a handful of 3 bets (usually the case at every tournament I play there). So limping has some value.
Small 4bet to 3600-4000 did enter my mind. But I figured Id probably still get it after a shove because Id be getting better than 2-1 and against QQ+ Im at like 35% equity I believe. I do think the BB would still call to wide and maybe the villain would fold a few more hands that he wouldn’t of if I shoved because he would realize my raise looked so strong.
I was playing at Riverside Casino in Iowa.
September 29, 2014
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Um, with 18bb I am never folding here. I am shoving 100% of the time. You have a chance to increase your stack by almost 30% without even seeing a flop. And if you see the flop you want it to be heads up not multi-way. By not shoving you are setting yourself up for the worse outcome of the three. and what do you mean by “only getting called by better?” Theres really only two hands that are better. If he’s got them then GG. And I bet you get called by a lot worse depending on stacks, like AQ, KQs, AJs, which you are crushing.
I used to do this for years until I wised up. You’re short stacked. you have AKs. You need chips. Don’t get cute. Shove.
I know people talk about raise folding w 15bbs. I guess that might be cool w 89s or something? I dunno. Im shoving all day.
But totally ready to be proven wrong! if there are some facts to dispute…
GL!
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I don’t think there’s really ever a good spot to flat-call AK on 18bb stacks, to be honest. It doesn’t play well postflop and your equity is going to be good enough that you’re pricing yourself into getting it all-in on a lot of flops anyway, so you might as well guarantee yourself the chance to realise all your equity and get it all-in preflop. Besides, there’s a good chance of getting called by worse, and flipping with a lot of money in the pot already is a really good thing. Don’t try to avoid flipping. Embrace it.
December 24, 2013
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Yeah I’m guessing you had to flip for your tournament life here and didn’t like that.
If utg’s range is 22 and you KNEW that utg was calling your shove, you’d still want to shove. Maybe in that extreme example I’d choose to fold, but I doubt it. When you put your 18 in, you’re trying to win ~38, needing less than 50% equity. Add in ANY folds and the needed equity goes down a lot. You definitely will have that.
August 21, 2016
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Thanks for the replies. I figured I was just over thinking the hand. Only reason I posted this question was because of the table dynamics made me think flatting had a chance to maybe earn me a few more chips. Had it been someone else to make the raise and the spewy player wasn’t in either of the blinds, I would have never consider just calling and would be shoving 100%.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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jgripp81 said
Thanks for the replies. I figured I was just over thinking the hand. Only reason I posted this question was because of the table dynamics made me think flatting had a chance to maybe earn me a few more chips. Had it been someone else to make the raise and the spewy player wasn’t in either of the blinds, I would have never consider just calling and would be shoving 100%.
This is sound logic in theory, but in reality most people massively over-estimate the EV of slowplaying versus ‘spewy’ villains. In most cases these types of villains are much too prone to call it off light or call 3-bets light anwyay, so your best chance to get value is to get chips in before the flop when those villains hate folding.
Even spewy villains don’t bluff it off postflop as much as people tend to expect them to when they slowplay, and AK isn’t even going to give you that many great spots to bluff-catch anyway since you need to hit the flop to be comfortable.
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