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March 8, 2013
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Villain has been playing 38/34 with 16.7% 3bet out of 45 hands. I haven't seen him show down any hands that seemed out of place, so it's quite possible he is just getting a lot of hands. When he 3bet me, I considered 4bet/calling or just ripping, but I felt like if I make it 60000 and he flats he can play perfectly against me postflop, and jamming seems like I'm never getting called by worse. What do you think?
On the flop I plan to check/call thinking I am ahead sometimes and drawing live to a pair sometimes. His small bet makes me think he is going for value and wants to price me in to get my stack in on three streets, so I weighting him mainly towards overpairs TT+, but he is giving me almost 4 to 1, so I don't need to make much more money if I hit my pair to make the call profitable. I also plan on bluffing if the flush draw comes in, because I think I have plenty of suited ranges in my range and he does not.
Once I hit my pair, I figure my best bet is bluffcatching, though looking back I probably should have checkraised the river instead of just calling, as AQ is probably more of his range than AA and I can't imagine him showing up with anything that beats me besides AA.
Merge Network PM #3 $30K Gtd No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2500.00/t5000.00 Blinds + t500.00 – 9 players – View hand 2345581
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
iamkingkong (CO): BB = 7.0, t34834
Toddle2011 (BTN): BB = 9.5, t47628
kayfaber (SB): BB = 6.5, t32356
sddyash (BB): BB = 16.5, t82576
Hero (UTG): BB = 33.1, t165312
AgentCooper72 (UTG+1): BB = 13.1, t65298
Icantstopmyself (UTG+2): BB = 32.3, t161368
chriswhite69 (MP1): BB = 87.6, t437815
TheBlackJew (MP2): BB = 21.0, t105248
Pre Flop: (t12000) Hero is UTG with K
A
Hero raises to t10000.00, 2 folds, chriswhite69 raises to t30000.00, 5 folds, Hero calls t20000
Flop: (t72000) 3 6
3 (2 players)
Hero checks, chriswhite69 bets t26000.00, Hero calls t26000
Turn: (t124000) A (2 players)
Hero checks, chriswhite69 checks
River: (t124000) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, chriswhite69 bets t55000.00, Hero calls t55000
August 16, 2013
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I think you played pre, flop & turn fine. I would have led river though because you're going to be able to get some value from non-A pair hands that slowed down on the turn and are fairly likely to check-back the river – even with a small sample size as you have, his stats suggest to me he's 3 betting rather than flatting hands like 99-JJ (as well as QQ & KK obv) and those are good value targets for playing the river as if you're the one with the busted draw. When you check, you're limiting the range of hands you are likely to get value from to worse aces, and there's more to his range that you can extract value from so I'd bet it. I actually think you're more likely to get value from leading river when the flush draw bricks than when it comes in.
A separate issue is if it comes in on the turn and you go through with your plan to turn your hand into a bluff. Let's say that the turn is the Ts. At this point you've got 22BB and there's ~25BB in the pot. You're shipping?
March 8, 2013
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Yes, I planned to ship turn if the flush came in (or river if I missed turn, check/check, flush comes on river).
I will speak more to your first point later once I reveal villain's hand.
March 26, 2013
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With a stack of 33bbs I’m not sure I want to flat behind with AK. There are a couple of options here:
1) 4bet small to see if villain wants to shove OTT. He could jam hands like AJ, AQ, KQ as well as his value hands. If he flats behind, which I think is unlikely given his stats then you have less than a pot bet to jam the flop.
2) I think there is absolute grounds here to just 4bet all-in. Advantages are that you increase your stack by around 30% if villain folds (most likely) and even if called you have good equity unless he shows AA or KK. In addition you are not having to play an awkward stack size oop post flop and you might even get called by AQ or something sometimes too. It’s a pretty big shove but I think I would rather do that than run the risk of missing flop and playing out of position with the likely best hand.
August 16, 2013
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Well, knowing his hand will just mean that I'm wearing results-oriented colored glasses, so I'll elaborate a bit before I put those on. When we get to the river, I'd see his range as consisting of three classes of hands: (i) worse Ax hands, (ii) medium-high pairs that went from strong to hoping to get to showdown cheaply on the turn, and (iii) air. If you check, he's likely to bet with (i) and (iii) and check behind with (ii). If you bet, he's likely to call with (i) and (ii) and fold (iii) (I'm assuming he doesn't spaz). I wouldn't expect him to call a x/r with worse very often. So if you think he has enough air in his range that he will bluff (bearing in mind that he may sometimes check behind hands like KQ due to their showdown value here), then checking hoping to induce a bet is fine. That said, someone who is going to take a bluffy line like that should probably be expected to fire that A on the turn…that's why I think you're better off leading as I just see more hands in the (i) and (ii) categories.
March 8, 2013
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MrPunty: I felt like with the fact that I opened UTG, he was likely to put me on a range with a lot of aces and unlikely to call a bet with 99-KK. I did think he would bluff 99-JJ trying to get me off higher pocket pairs. You make a good point that he would probably do that on the turn.
The villain actually showed up with JJ, so I was right this time, but you have convinced me that I think most villains would play it more like you said, given that we both checked the trun.
Poking Fun: I think your analysis of option 1 makes complete sense if we know the villain's stats are accurate. I just don't put too much faith in them as I discussed above. Overall, I think 4bet shoving was probably the best play.
my question is why nobody is considering ch/shoving river? as played we are beat roughly 0% of the time on the river, and could still potentially extract more value. tricky-played AQ, AJ would probably have to pay us off and getting this price i feel like somebody might ssigh call off sometimes here too.
as presented im probably running a flip for all of it pre flop, but i dont mind peeling if we think villain is weighted toward strong hands. with a 45 hand sample im not using his 3b % as an important reliable stat at all. 3b% means {hands he 3bet, given the opportunity to 3bet.} this probably means of the 45 hands, he had 8-12 opportunities to 3b (because someone opened before him) and he opted to 3bet 1 or 2 of these hands (not that crazy, and subjected to a lot of variance). so dont over rely on that stat without a strong sample
April 8, 2013
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I was thinking the same thing. I feel like you have to check shove this river. Its basically a minraise which he will definitely be calling with most Ax’s and possibly some bigger pairs given the odds he is receiving.
I dont understand why nobody is discussing 4bet/calling in this spot. His stats atleast imply he is playing laggy preflop. I dont really like putting 20% of our stack in preflop OOP. I dont think there is ever a time Im folding to this villain with 33bb preflop. However, flatting and then peeling the flop is very expensive with A high. If the turn is a blank you cant rep much of anything. You certainly cant rep the flush and being that you dont have any blocker to the flush it seems really silly. I think people seem to be a little results oriented discussing this hand. If you dont turn an A or K, you are in alot of trouble with very little to rep. The only hand you might play this way that is ahead on a brick turn is exactly AA and most players will just sigh call anway with whatever value hands they have.
Also to answer your point about getting flatted if you 4 bet. Im probably just making it like 67k and jamming any flop if flatted.
Joe I like where your heads at regarding his preflop stats in theory, but you are ignoring his sample size (45 hands). As I said in the post above, this sample isnt nearly enough to indicate how aggro Villain is truly playing preflop. His 3bet stat is almost completely irrelevant at 45 hands.
April 8, 2013
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Yea I completely agree about his 3bet stat. My laggy statement was more in regard to him playing 38/34. Granted you are opening UTG and he is 3betting in this instance. I still think his preflop vpip and pfr make me more comfortable to just 4bet gii.
March 8, 2013
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Darvin, I mentioned check/raising the river in my original post. Based on stack sizes, what I meant was a check/shove. I agree that's the best way to play the river.
markconkle said:
Darvin, I mentioned check/raising the river in my original post. Based on stack sizes, what I meant was a check/shove. I agree that's the best way to play the river.
makes sense mark
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Think I mostly agree with Chris on this one – I'd probably be either shoving or 4bet/calling preflop, but I actually really like the c/shove river line. Almost impossible for us to be beat here, at least not very often. One of those spots where shoving is almost a freeroll – we rarely get called by worse, but we certainly get called by worse way more often than we get called by better, since he just never has better.
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