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April 26, 2013
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PokerStars Hand €7+€2+€1 EUR Hold'em No Limit – Level XVI (350/700) –
2015/03/11 15:54:54 CET [2015/03/11 10:54:54 ET]
Table '1160897987 3' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Beerpokkel (28668 in chips)
Seat 2: thuoux (35377 in chips)
Seat 3: gina66613 (13260 in chips)
Seat 4: corleonedu80 (24219 in chips)
Seat 5: Zembla2632 (12942 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero (34635 in chips)
Beerpokkel: posts the ante 85
thuoux: posts the ante 85
gina66613: posts the ante 85
corleonedu80: posts the ante 85
Zembla2632: posts the ante 85
Hero: posts the ante 85
Hero: posts small blind 350
Beerpokkel: posts big blind 700
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [A
K
]
thuoux: raises 700 to 1400
gina66613: raises 11775 to 13175 and is all-in
corleonedu80: folds
Zembla2632: folds
Hero: ???
Shove or should we ever flat here? Or does anyone ever fold here to wait for a saver spot? In a $1000 tourney maybe? And if we flat, what do we do if the initial raiser shoves? Do we fold, he was running a tight 25/8 for ~50 hands?
We were 4th in chips, 32 left, 30 paid.
September 14, 2014
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I'd fold , given that utg seems tight also UTG2 is likely to be shoving here with a tight range AQ+ 99+ is probably the widest they'll be. You have a 50bb stacksize , so you can pass up what seems to be a pretty marginal spot given the action pre.
You may also want to play about with ranges to see how AK plays vs your opponents ranges , will give you a better idea.
January 28, 2013
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Shove. Flatting then folding to original raiser is pretty bad imo. This is a 6handed tourney and UTG is actually MP in a regular 9-handed tourney.
We can be well ahead of the original raisers range. Him folding is a good outcome and him calling with something like TT+, AQ+ is not such a bad outcome.
April 26, 2013
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FAPY, thanks. I think I’d fold if it was a slow (live) tourney. This was 6-handed turbo, so I guess I’ll still shove get it in.
I tried some numbers… if we get called by the initial raiser our equity is only about 21%! But this should happen only about 20% of the time (a 3.3% range). Against the reraiser we have about 55%. Considering that it really looks like a fold!
Kal: Thanks, I did reship and ran into KK (original raiser) and AQo (reshipper). Somehow made a straight, but wondered if the berating of villain had some foundation. I actually don’t think villain would call with TT or AQ, he seemed really tight. Against average villain I think a reship is ok, thought probably still borderline. Against this guy probably not.
I agree that flatting seems aweful as we can’t fold when he shoves. That’s why I guess with AKo this is a fold then.
September 14, 2014
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I never realized it was 6 handed lol , it’s a close spot but if u really think the initial raiser is tight then folding here ain’t terrible.
January 28, 2013
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Sen said:
I actually don't think villain would call with TT or AQ, he seemed really tight. Against average villain I think a reship is ok, thought probably still borderline. Against this guy probably not.
That's why I guess with AKo this is a fold then.
It would only be a fold if this guy had a tight opening range, of which he would be calling a high percentage of when we all-in bet cold behind. If he has a decent opening range and he is folding TT and AQ it is actually quite a good outcome for us as we are only facing 1 villain (reshipper) and there is good overlay in the pot from the original raiser.
If you want I can model this in CRev when I am home later. I would need your estimation of the following:
– First villains opening range
– Reshipper's 3bet all in range
– Original raiser's calling range (after we go all-in)
(Thats off the top of my head so if I need anything else I will let you know). Feel free to give me a few ranges for each and we can see how this changes the EV.
April 26, 2013
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A CRev analysis would be much appreciated. I recently made a decision to buy the program if my roll reaches a certain point and start playing with it to improve my game. Do you recommand it (CRev I mean)?
Ok here are some ranges:
Villain #1 thuoux (UTG initial raiser) was running ~25/8/4,3 over 50 hands. For opening I'd give him JTs, KTs+, KQo (50% of hand combos as he may often open-limp these [-> fish]), A8s+, ATo+, 66+.
His all-in calling range sould be very tight, as he seemed like one of these players that would fold strong hands near the bubble just to make it to ITM. So here it is: JJ+, AQs+, AKo. That's it. I highly doubt he'd ever call 99 or TT here, maybe include 25% of these hands. Same with AQo or AJs.
Villain #2 gina66613 (reshipper) was running 49/21/7,0 over 150 hands. I'd give him KQo+, QJs+, 44+, A5s+, A9o+ as a reship range.
I played with PokerStove a bit and looked at the chipstacks and came to the conclusion that given villains #1 tight range and the bubble-situation and the fact that we are very deep (for a turbo tournament) this would be a fold. Very interested to see what you will come up with.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Since the villain who shoved is playing 49/21 I think people are over-complicating this. He's not going to be paying too much attention to the UTG player's stats if he's that crazy. Similarly, the UTG player seems tight and passive, but we only have 50 hands of info to go on.
I think the main issue here is that while people have correctly identified that it's not necessarily a super easy snap-call, people are massively overestimating the future edge that they gain by folding here. I covered that concept in my article here:
I haven't done the math on this spot, but I would be surprised if it turns out to be anything less than +1bb in profit. If that's the case, even if we have a 5EVbb/100 edge on the field at our current stack size, it will take us 20 hands to recoup the profit we forego by folding. Considering that at effective stacks of 19bb (the amount of the shove) our edge is likely to be significantly less, it's likely that folding away even a 0.5bb edge here is probably a bad idea.
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