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AK suited UTG against aggressive button. Turn decision - shove/call/fold
Hamishk
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November 19, 2014 - 4:40 pm
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This hand comes from yesterday when I played in day 1A of Auckland NZD 2500 main event.

Blinds 200/400 with ante 50

My stack a little over starting at 21K (around 50BB). Villain has about 37K

Villain is young asian Korean/New Zealander who is a reg at the tables in Auckland. Mainly plays cash with a few tournaments here and there. Regularly runs up a stack at the cash tables and is a tough opponent who is aggressive when IP heads up. His mode when checked to is to bet, and often to keep betting. I'm mid-50's guy who has been on the receiving end of his IP bullying more than once.  Have a tight image at the table. We have been playing about 4 hours

 

I'm UTG with AdiamondKdiamond  and open-raise to 800

Villain 3bets on button to 1800

I flat

 

Flop comes

10club5diamond3club

 

I check. We stare at each other for a while (channelling Mike McDonald for this hand). He then bets about 3200 into pot of around 4600 (if I've done the math right)

 

With the one diamond on the board, and having two overs, I call.

 

Turn comes 10diamond

 

Channel Mike McDonald's stare for a while then check

 

He stares back for a while then bets out for something like 3600 into pot of around 10K ish

 

At this point I have something like 16K, and if I shove with overs and nut flush draw I will be putting pressure on him. Reflecting back on Andrew Brokos videos (and possibly colored by the history between us), I look at this as a #3 bluffing spot.

 

If I check/raise shove all in I may already be drawing dead. In my view, a large part of his range will consist of big aces (AK, AQ, AJsuited) and pocket pairs – perhaps 7s up. He might have 3bet with A-10 suited but think that is a very small part of his range (unless it is a part of his 3bet bluff range)

 

If I fold I am down to about 40BB with antes in play

 

If I call and don't hit I will be facing another bet on the river if I check. (This guy almost always bets when checked to if he perceives you as weak – he doesn't do it every time. But has a high %)

 

Views on  which option would be a better play

Foucault

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November 19, 2014 - 5:24 pm
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“I may already be drawing dead”

To what? One combo of quads? 55/33/T5/T3 all unlikely to be 3b vs an UTG open. Try to consider your equity against his entire calling range here instead of just the worst case scenario.

I think shoving and calling both have merit. If you call, your plan should be to check-call most if not all rivers. The biggest risk of calling, I think, is giving him a free showdown with hands like JJ. The biggest upside of calling is that when you’re ahead, you’re usually way ahead – it’s hard for him to be drawing to more than 6 outs here, and you probably have big implied odds attached to hitting a few cards if he’s as aggressive as you say.

To make shoving better than calling, he needs to bet-fold a good amount of pairs on the turn. Do you think he takes this line with 88 or JJ?

Hamishk
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November 19, 2014 - 6:57 pm
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I may already be drawing dead”

To what? One combo of quads? 55/33/T5/T3 all unlikely to be 3b vs an UTG open. Try to consider your equity against his entire calling range here instead of just the worst case scenario.”

Yah. I agree. Included for completeness and seemed pretty unlikely for a 3bet.

 

“To make shoving better than calling, he needs to bet-fold a good amount of pairs on the turn. Do you think he takes this line with 88 or JJ?

I would think with JJ he would bet bigger on the turn. Unsure of his line with 88. He is reasonably good at merging and lean towards him taking the same line with 88 as he would JJ

 

Given he kept the bet size the same on the flop and turn I was thinking he might be weak and drawing or had an underpair.

 

Thanks for the analysis.  The option of check-calling the river if I called the turn didn't really come to mind in the moment.

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