TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
“I may already be drawing dead”
To what? One combo of quads? 55/33/T5/T3 all unlikely to be 3b vs an UTG open. Try to consider your equity against his entire calling range here instead of just the worst case scenario.
I think shoving and calling both have merit. If you call, your plan should be to check-call most if not all rivers. The biggest risk of calling, I think, is giving him a free showdown with hands like JJ. The biggest upside of calling is that when you’re ahead, you’re usually way ahead – it’s hard for him to be drawing to more than 6 outs here, and you probably have big implied odds attached to hitting a few cards if he’s as aggressive as you say.
To make shoving better than calling, he needs to bet-fold a good amount of pairs on the turn. Do you think he takes this line with 88 or JJ?
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