shove here and be confident.  AK is way ahead of his opening range.

shove here and be confident.  AK is way ahead of his opening range.

I'm playing around with this as well and it seems to be a -EV shove

Pot = 700

Your stack= 2420

BB=200

Effective stack= 1130 (We put the effective stack of our opponent we are 3bet shoving on right? Assuming everyone else in the hand folds even though the effective stack would change if they call)

Open Range %= 10

Opener Call %=10

(Based on his stack size and position can be pretty confident that hes calling his entire range that opens here so you should be called 100% of the time.)

Win %= 58

lose %= 42%

It appears that the EV of a shove is 2259 and EV of a fold is 2420 and the

NET EV of a shove = -161.

Is it because a 10% opening/calling range is so tight and doesn't include enough Ax rag combs that it makes -EV to shove here? Interested in finding out why this is a -EV shove because its a nobrainer shove for myself as well. I feel like im entering the data wrong somehow.

I'm not sure how you arrive at the above but it seems a +ev shove to me.

Consider the 3 possibilities (assuming no action from the blinds and that he never folds):

1.a  You shove and win

This happens ~58% of the time if you stick to your assumed 10% range

When it does you pick up his 1130 plus the blinds of 300 so you end up with 3850.

1.b  You shove and lose

You lose 1130 so you end up with 1290 (42% of the time)

So when you shove, on average you end up with (3840*0.58)+(1290*0.42) which by my reckoning is 2774

So a call is +354 ev

2.  You fold

Your stack is unchanged so by definition this is 0 ev

Hence, easy shove.  Hope this helps your wife to forgive you 🙂

Alternatively you can use a less rigorous mathematical approach: 12BB + AK = shove

emb

We may need to add “talking to wife” to our range of -EV plays.