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July 10, 2012
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This was in a 2.20 triple shootout to the sunday million. 1st and 2nd get a ticket, 3rd gets thier money back. Usually i would be snap calling here, but becuase of the huge difference in 3rd and 2nd, is it right to fold here?
Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds + t25 – 3 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): BB = 16.0, t3195
Depotleiche (BB): BB = 15.9, t3171
FreeAndNil (BTN): BB = 13.2, t2634
Pre Flop: (t375) Hero is SB with K
A
FreeAndNil raises to t2609 all in, 2 folds
May 30, 2012
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Never folding bro. Ahead of his shove range. Cant really pass up this spot.
June 16, 2010
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With the flat payout structure of a satty you don't need to accumulate all the chips and could fold this spot. Yes you are ahead of his range but that isn't the only consideration when playing a satellite. You want to be shoving and rarely calling shoves…$2 to $215 is a big pay jump and should enter into the decision.
In this spot I fold.
October 6, 2010
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| PU | CA | OC | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| BU | 26.5%, 99+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o-A2o K3s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T9s | ||
| SB | 3.0%, JJ+ AKs AKo | ||
| BB | 0.9%, KK+ | ||
| BB | 5.4%, 99+ AJs+ AQo+ | ||
| SB | 100.0%, Any two | ||
| BB | 3.2%, 88+ |
perfect spot to use an ICM calculator. These are the nash shove ranges and nash calling ranges as a resul of the shoves. looks to me that if button is shoving correctly, then we should be calling, as it reccomends JJ+, AKo. What is interesting is that nash does not like lower pairs here.
now, using pokerstove, we have 66.2% equity against this shoving range with AKo
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.797% 30.99% 02.81% 1751000448 158751456.00 { 99+, A2s+, K3s+, Q9s+, J9s+, A7o+, A5o-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 66.203% 63.39% 02.81% 3582099840 158751456.00 { AKo }
what i am going to do now is just add a bit more and a bit less in terms of the range and see what happens. i am doing this to see what happens if we move away from the equillibrium.
adding all pairs, A6o, K8o+, 89s+, gives basically the same equity. against a completely random hand we have 65% equity, so we cant get exploited by them shoving wide on us.
if villain is shoving super tight then it is probably correct to fold -
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.584% 36.05% 06.53% 600014928 108730782.00 { 99+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 57.416% 50.88% 06.53% 846882996 108730782.00 { AKo }
cliffs: assuming villain is shoving more than 7% of the time, which i think is obvious, this is a pretty clear call.
June 2, 2012
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Our range here is obv significantly tighter than normal but it's a pretty easy call IMO. Villain is snap shoving any Ax and Kx and is obv much wider. Before I read Benny's post I thought that AQo and maybe 99 is bottom of my range for calling here. Turns out its a bit tighter than that with JJ and AKo. Can't imagine folding.
August 7, 2012
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Man, I can't imagine folding here with the stacks the way they are. If the bb was super short then yes this would be a pretty easy fold but based on stacks I'm calling here and winning the 70/30.
June 5, 2012
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As it is, you have a little better than 2/3 chance of winning a ticket.
benny did the calc's and it came out that you're pretty much exactly a 2:1 favorite against his range.
That makes it almost exactly break even money-wise, in which case I'm folding.
October 6, 2010
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fair point there, i think its the bottom of calling range or the top of our folding range, if villain can shove even remotely wide i still like calling though
July 20, 2012
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I'm having a bit of a formatting issue on this page and can't read the end of peoples sentences.
Benny says you have something like 62% against his likely shoving range (I think). OK, so if you make the call then 62% of the time you win the seat and 38% you are down to 3bbs. I'm not sure how to work out your equity from 3bbs there but I'd guess you still have 10% chance of getting a seat. So overall equity when calling is 62 + 0.1*38 = about 66%.
If you fold then you have a marginal cl and so your equity for getting a seat is going to be slightly more than 67% esp if you think you have an edge. So it is really close and will depend a lot on what range you give the villain here, but from the range put into the cruncher this is a marginal fold spot.
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