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AK on bubble of sunday million satellite
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usedstars
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August 10, 2012 - 8:28 am
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This was in a 2.20 triple shootout to the sunday million. 1st and 2nd get a ticket, 3rd gets thier money back. Usually i would be snap calling here, but becuase of the huge difference in 3rd and 2nd, is it right to fold here?

 

Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds + t25 – 3 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): BB = 16.0, t3195
Depotleiche (BB): BB = 15.9, t3171
FreeAndNil (BTN): BB = 13.2, t2634

Pre Flop: (t375) Hero is SB with K of spades A of hearts
FreeAndNil raises to t2609 all in, 2 folds

Van H3Lzing
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August 10, 2012 - 10:17 am
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Never folding bro. Ahead of his shove range. Cant really pass up this spot.

swet1
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August 10, 2012 - 11:02 am
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With the flat payout structure of a satty you don't need to accumulate all the chips and could fold this spot. Yes you are ahead of his range but that isn't the only consideration when playing a satellite. You want to be shoving and rarely calling shoves…$2 to $215 is a big pay jump and should enter into the decision.

In this spot I fold.

bennymacca
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August 10, 2012 - 12:09 pm
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PU CA OC Range
BU     26.5%, 99+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o-A2o K3s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+ JTo T9s
  SB   3.0%, JJ+ AKs AKo
    BB 0.9%, KK+
  BB   5.4%, 99+ AJs+ AQo+
SB     100.0%, Any two
  BB   3.2%, 88+

 

perfect spot to use an ICM calculator. These are the nash shove ranges and nash calling ranges as a resul of the shoves.  looks to me that if button is shoving correctly, then we should be calling, as it reccomends JJ+, AKo. What is interesting is that nash does not like lower pairs here. 

 

now, using pokerstove, we have 66.2% equity against this shoving range with AKo

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	33.797%  	30.99% 	02.81% 	    1751000448 	158751456.00   { 99+, A2s+, K3s+, Q9s+, J9s+, A7o+, A5o-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 	66.203%  	63.39% 	02.81% 	    3582099840 	158751456.00   { AKo }
 
what i am going to do now is just add a bit more and a bit less in terms of the range and see what happens. i am doing this to see what happens if we move away from the equillibrium. 
 
adding all pairs, A6o, K8o+, 89s+, gives basically the same equity. against a completely random hand we have 65% equity, so we cant get exploited by them shoving wide on us. 
 
if villain is shoving super tight then it is probably correct to fold - 

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	42.584%  	36.05% 	06.53% 	     600014928 	108730782.00   { 99+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 	57.416%  	50.88% 	06.53% 	     846882996 	108730782.00   { AKo }
 
 
cliffs: assuming villain is shoving more than 7% of the time, which i think is obvious, this is a pretty clear call. 
JLUDEOBV
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August 10, 2012 - 12:50 pm
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Our range here is obv significantly tighter than normal but it's a pretty easy call IMO. Villain is snap shoving any Ax and Kx and is obv much wider. Before I read Benny's post I thought that AQo and maybe 99 is bottom of my range for calling here. Turns out its a bit tighter than that with JJ and AKo. Can't imagine folding.

Cougars4444
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August 11, 2012 - 6:44 pm
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Man, I can't imagine folding here with the stacks the way they are.  If the bb was super short then yes this would be a pretty easy fold but based on stacks I'm calling here and winning the 70/30.

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FloppedBackdoorTrips
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August 11, 2012 - 11:51 pm
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As it is, you have a little better than 2/3 chance of winning a ticket.

 

benny did the calc's and it came out that you're pretty much exactly a 2:1 favorite against his range.

 

That makes it almost exactly break even money-wise, in which case I'm folding.

bennymacca
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August 12, 2012 - 12:31 am
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fair point there, i think its the bottom of calling range or the top of our folding range, if villain can shove even remotely wide i still like calling though

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August 13, 2012 - 5:58 pm
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I'm having a bit of a formatting issue on this page and can't read the end of peoples sentences.

Benny says you have something like 62% against his likely shoving range (I think). OK, so if you make the call then 62% of the time you win the seat and 38% you are down to 3bbs. I'm not sure how to work out your equity from 3bbs there but I'd guess you still have 10% chance of getting a seat. So overall equity when calling is 62 + 0.1*38 = about 66%.

If you fold then you have a marginal cl and so your equity for getting a seat is going to be slightly more than 67% esp if you think you have an edge. So it is really close and will depend a lot on what range you give the villain here, but from the range put into the cruncher this is a marginal fold spot.

JLUDEOBV
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August 14, 2012 - 12:12 am
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