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AK FT chip leader call 40BB shove?
StrongValour
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July 24, 2015 - 4:15 pm
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I have 100 hands on opponent and he was playing VP:11 PR:8. He had never 3 betted a hand. Do you call here?

MP2: 152,278 (9 bb)
MP3: 1,225,362 (72.1 bb)
Hero (CO): 1,194,906 (70.3 bb)
BTN: 258,687 (15.2 bb)
SB: 737,264 (43.4 bb)
BB: 872,231 (51.3 bb)
MP1: 553,272 (32.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A K
2 folds, MP3 raises to 35,700Hero raises to 119,000BTN foldsSB raises to 735,139 and is all-in, 2 folds, Hero

theginger45

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July 24, 2015 - 6:11 pm
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Your 3-bet is pretty big, I might go with something like 95k instead – flatting is also an option since playing a big pot against the other 70bb stack would be awful for you right now, especially with a 9bb stack there.

It’s tough to say exactly what SB’s range is here but I would imagine the ICM impact of you potentially going down from 70bb to 27bb is fairly significant, much greater than the benefit of you going from 70bb up to 113bb and busting a player. The 9bb stack makes things even more extreme.

I imagine a tight player like SB is unlikely to have AQ here, especially given the size of your 3-bet. Most likely a range something like 99-QQ and AK. Without exact payouts etc it’s difficult to do an actual ICM calculation but my guess is that while SB is likely making a mistake if they jam something like 99 or TT here, this is one of those weird ICM spots where I think we have to ‘adapt to their mistake’ and make a fold that allows us to avoid a high-variance spot where we’re likely to be flipping. I wouldn’t fault you for folding here.

Side note: in future, include buyin level, blinds/antes level, and blind structure (turbo/regular/slow) in future when you post a hand. Would also be good to have a read on MP3.

BotswanaNick
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July 24, 2015 - 6:40 pm
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I’m a new member and play pretty low stakes, so consider this analysis with that in mind:

Have you been bullying and 3betting a lot at the final table? If you were just running everyone over, that would be the only time I think I would consider calling here. If we consider the ICM downside for us from going from 70bb to 27, think about how much more extreme it would be for SB to bust here with 43 blinds and 3 shorter stacks. I think shoving KK and AA would be perfectly reasonable from SB in this spot, I’m not willing to discount too many combos of them. And without running the numbers, I would agree with ginger that shoving 99 or TT is probably pretty horrendous ICM-wise. Even JJ or AK? I bet shoving these hands isn’t as good as it might seem. He is theoretically shoving into 2 uncapped ranges, so even if he gets tons of folds, it won’t make up for the times one of you snaps with AA/KK. So this seems like a pretty clear fold unless there is history or table dynamics that tilt the balance.

Oh yeah, and he’s been playing quite nitty over 100 hands with 0 3bets.

bitdash
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July 29, 2015 - 10:03 pm
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without using icmizer and holdem resources for detailed calc, i think this is a fold versus someone who has 11/8 3b 0 for last 100 hands.  Also being in FT, bubble factors is high, and you were clashing with another big stack especially with 9 and 15 bb stacks around.

 

Agree.  Since it is in FT, prize distribution would be good too.

Side note: in future, include buyin level, blinds/antes level, and blind structure (turbo/regular/slow) in future when you post a hand. Would also be good to have a read on MP3.

jacobsharktank
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July 30, 2015 - 9:44 am
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Personally, I'd try to sharkscope them to find out if they're solid/decent because 100 hands isn't a lot of hands to run that tight. Solid to me doesn't mean understanding it being an icm mistake to do much here without a nutted range, but that they understand his range is likely wide, and your range is likely wide, and because of that 66 would generate chips. If their abi is pretty low, but theyre profitable or breakevenish, I'd call and and expect sometimes to see even AJ here.  But then as everyone's suggesting, the icm value of your stack goes down significantly when you lose. So even giving sb a wider than 11/8 cold 4b rip range, I can see folding still being best. You need 40% equity vs them to break even chip equity wise. Money wise, things shift more heavily. If the payouts are super top heavy, I'd think folding is more likely the best option. If they're sort of flat, it would make sense to me that the icm value of decisions are a touch closer to chip ev. that is, flat payouts icm value to chip ev is close than large payout jumps icm value to chip ev. i can't use icmizer at work 🙁 

 

but yes please when you post a final table hand, give reads on all the players even if they're irrelevant to the final decision youre asking about. payouts and buyin are super important here too

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