July 24, 2015
I have 100 hands on opponent and he was playing VP:11 PR:8. He had never 3 betted a hand. Do you call here?
MP2: 152,278 (9 bb)
MP3: 1,225,362 (72.1 bb)
Hero (CO): 1,194,906 (70.3 bb)
BTN: 258,687 (15.2 bb)
SB: 737,264 (43.4 bb)
BB: 872,231 (51.3 bb)
MP1: 553,272 (32.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A K
2 folds, MP3 raises to 35,700, Hero raises to 119,000, BTN folds, SB raises to 735,139 and is all-in, 2 folds, Hero
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
Your 3-bet is pretty big, I might go with something like 95k instead – flatting is also an option since playing a big pot against the other 70bb stack would be awful for you right now, especially with a 9bb stack there.
It’s tough to say exactly what SB’s range is here but I would imagine the ICM impact of you potentially going down from 70bb to 27bb is fairly significant, much greater than the benefit of you going from 70bb up to 113bb and busting a player. The 9bb stack makes things even more extreme.
I imagine a tight player like SB is unlikely to have AQ here, especially given the size of your 3-bet. Most likely a range something like 99-QQ and AK. Without exact payouts etc it’s difficult to do an actual ICM calculation but my guess is that while SB is likely making a mistake if they jam something like 99 or TT here, this is one of those weird ICM spots where I think we have to ‘adapt to their mistake’ and make a fold that allows us to avoid a high-variance spot where we’re likely to be flipping. I wouldn’t fault you for folding here.
Side note: in future, include buyin level, blinds/antes level, and blind structure (turbo/regular/slow) in future when you post a hand. Would also be good to have a read on MP3.
July 22, 2015
without using icmizer and holdem resources for detailed calc, i think this is a fold versus someone who has 11/8 3b 0 for last 100 hands. Also being in FT, bubble factors is high, and you were clashing with another big stack especially with 9 and 15 bb stacks around.
Agree. Since it is in FT, prize distribution would be good too.
Side note: in future, include buyin level, blinds/antes level, and blind structure (turbo/regular/slow) in future when you post a hand. Would also be good to have a read on MP3.
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