hey folks, interested to here what you guys think about this spot.
down to 2 tables paying one, sitting third in chips at this point.
original raiser is running 22/7 and has been min raising frequently last 2 orbits.
guy to my right is running 30/10.
o/r 3x's this time and that rings bells.
guy to my right flats and that rings more bells.
o/r had been turning over very marginal hands (qjo, a8o k9s) was probabaly gonna jam on him, but then the guy to my right just flats and threw me off.
was really concerned with the changing of raise size in the same level, and then what the guy to my right could be flatting with with me still behind him who had him covered.
easy jam or tough fold?
Merge No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t500.00/t1000.00 Blinds – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Hollamann (MP2): t10197.00 10.20 BBs
Grimes105 (CO): t8548.00 8.55 BBs
Muck3m (BTN): t20744.00 20.74 BBs
looseIdontbluff (SB): t6168.00 6.17 BBs
bigblueberry (BB): t6038.00 6.04 BBs
RocketsFull (UTG): t49028.00 49.03 BBs
zColdz (UTG+1): t49645.00 49.65 BBs
Diapers69 (MP1): t16039.00 16.04 BBs
Pre Flop: (t1500) Hero is with K A
RocketsFull raises to t3100, 4 folds, Muck3m calls t3100
tmck21 ???
first of all – great to see you not just gettin it in and actually thinking about the situation in depth. Why did he change his raise size? why did c/o flat? what are my options? etc
his raise size could mean anything, maybe a bigger hand, maybe a weaker hand, maybe he just feels like it, maybe he had been getting flatted when min raising and now just wants to permanently adjust his raise size so he isnt forced to play more pots OOP
also, you noticed that he had shown down marginal hands previously and the c/o probably did too. He doesnt always have to have a hand here and could be trying to outplay OR post flop
i doubt i'm folding here tbh
i like to 3bet here 9-10kish, firstly hoping to take it down, but with the intention of getting it in if either comes back over the top.
Looks stronger than 3bet jamming, and OR needs a decent hand b/c he's the one getting squeezed.
hopefully chases out 77-TT maybe JJ and also mid SC's that flop well.
thats my line anyway
yep i'd def be thinking the same lines as you there
and i guess thats why i like 3betting instead of 3bet jamming b/c it looks stronger
if you think about it, average players may call with mid pairs when we squeeze shove b/c it looks more like AJ+, 66-JJ. and we probably wouldnt be doing that (shoving) with QQ+
So when we 3bet to 9 or 10K, that same average player will def not be 4betting all those mid pairs and instead just be folding to us b/c we look like we want action
I think this is the more superior play anyway
If you 3bet to 9-10k you are committed anyway so I don't see the point of that…if you are going to go all the way with it just jam it in. What if the big stack or calls your 3bet and the 20bb stack jams over? Are you folding…no and when you call the jam the big stack is likely to call as well and now you are up against two opponents.
The flat pre by the 20bb stack doesn't seem out of line with his stats 30/10 so I don't think its a monster. I say jam it and look to get HU with one opponent and don't forget to spike an ace.
You have 21bb's and are in position. My only hiccup is the fact that UTG opener is only raising 7% of hands according to your stats. Now he is 3xing UTG when he hardly ever raises. You said he has raised and showed down some mediocre hands but his PFR % says hes tight. Dont think he is raising UTG with a mediocre hand here. My guess is AQ, AK or 99+. With that said, dont think a 3bet or a 3bet jam is taking down the pot pre. Since I dont think they are folding, I might consider flatting here in position and see a flop. If you dont like the flop, you still have 18bb's. These are my thoughts. 3bet is great thought, but you wanna do it when there is a chance for fold. I dont think o/r is folding and maybe not the loose flatter either. Let me know what you think?
@swet1
'i like to 3bet here 9-10kish, firstly hoping to take it down, but with the intention of getting it in if either comes back over the top'.
The point of this bet is to look stronger as i said in my previous post
I really think these guys have to be terrible players if they flat our 3bet, OOP, when we put half of our stack in the middle, dont you agree swet1?
and as for the OR flatting, then the c/o coming back over the top and eventually making a 3 way pot, i'm not sure this is ever gonna happen either. For this to happen , the OR has to have exactly AA or KK (all of his other hands would either fold or 4bet shove us to isolate), AND the c/o would have to have AA or KK, or he would be 3bet shoving 99-QQ himself preflop
I think we can safely assume that one of them is putting it in, very unlikely both of them are. Or they are BOTH folding, and as i stated – i am happy to get it in here against either
I'd think about hawkeye's suggestion of flatting but we'd def be flop dependent and given that we are so shallow i'd prefer trying to take it down pre or get it in as stated
hapetimes said:
@swet1
'i like to 3bet here 9-10kish, firstly hoping to take it down, but with the intention of getting it in if either comes back over the top'.
The point of this bet is to look stronger as i said in my previous post
I really think these guys have to be terrible players if they flat our 3bet, OOP, when we put half of our stack in the middle, dont you agree swet1?
and as for the OR flatting, then the c/o coming back over the top and eventually making a 3 way pot, i'm not sure this is ever gonna happen either. For this to happen , the OR has to have exactly AA or KK (all of his other hands would either fold or 4bet shove us to isolate), AND the c/o would have to have AA or KK, or he would be 3bet shoving 99-QQ himself preflop
I think we can safely assume that one of them is putting it in, very unlikely both of them are. Or they are BOTH folding, and as i stated – i am happy to get it in here against either
I'd think about hawkeye's suggestion of flatting but we'd def be flop dependent and given that we are so shallow i'd prefer trying to take it down pre or get it in as stated
@hapetimes
Yes I agree the players would have to be really bad to flat the 3bet but we are talking about merge here.
I'm not saying your logic is bad …
My point is if I'm getting it in no matter what then why wait… do it pre and do your best make it a HU race.
swet1
hey thanks for the replies guys, is folding not an option here?
with co's flat, i felt i had to assume that i was facing same hand/jj+, and o/r, i wasn't sure but guessed that change in bet size meant strength when min raising were weak hands.
was pretty sure that i was gonna get called by one if not both to a jam.
i chose to fold here because i really didn't think my chances of getting it in good here were all that good. also felt that i would be able to get better spots to chip up with shorter stacks starting to shove alot wider.
Merge No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t500.00/t1000.00 Blinds – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Hollamann (MP1): t10197.00 10.20 BBs
Grimes105 (MP2): t8548.00 8.55 BBs
Muck3m (CO): t20744.00 20.74 BBs
Hero (BTN): t21593.00 21.59 BBs
looseIdontbluff (SB): t6168.00 6.17 BBs
bigblueberry (BB): t6038.00 6.04 BBs
RocketsFull (UTG): t49028.00 49.03 BBs
zColdz (UTG+1): t49645.00 49.65 BBs
Diapers69 (UTG+2): t16039.00 16.04 BBs
Pre Flop: (t1500) Hero is BTN with K A
RocketsFull raises to t3100, 4 folds, Muck3m calls t3100, 3 folds
Flop: (t7700) 6 3 6 (2 players)
RocketsFull bets t6450.00, Muck3m raises to t17544, RocketsFull calls t11094
Turn: (t42788) 2 (2 players)
River: (t42788) T (2 players)
Final Pot: t42788
Muck3m shows A Q
RocketsFull shows K K
RocketsFull wins t43688.00
(Rake: t-900)
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