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AJus with 18bb Final 100 of the hot $3:30

ScotFish

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August 20, 2017 - 3:30 am

A re-shove question for you here, as I feel my game around this area could do with some fine-tuning.

PokerStars Hand #174301636530: Tournament #1988214408, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level XXXIV (8000/16000) – 2017/08/13 23:22:02 WET [2017/08/13 18:22:02 ET]
Table ‘1988214408 157’ 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: dohy777 (238784 in chips)
Seat 2: 123kid420 (329376 in chips)
Seat 3: LukasProfeta (124292 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: austinova (338503 in chips)
Seat 5: GoHsT921 (447583 in chips)
Seat 6: part&parcel (217138 in chips)
Seat 8: Poker.TL17 (283606 in chips)
Seat 9: ScotLib (284906 in chips)
dohy777: posts the ante 2000
123kid420: posts the ante 2000
LukasProfeta: posts the ante 2000
austinova: posts the ante 2000
GoHsT921: posts the ante 2000
part&parcel: posts the ante 2000
Poker.TL17: posts the ante 2000
ScotLib: posts the ante 2000
GoHsT921: posts small blind 8000
part&parcel: posts big blind 16000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ScotLib [Jh Ac]
Poker.TL17: raises 24000 to 40000
ScotLib: raises 242906 to 282906 and is all-in
dohy777: folds
123kid420: folds
LukasProfeta: folds
austinova: folds
GoHsT921: folds
part&parcel: folds
Poker.TL17: calls 241606 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (1300) returned to ScotLib
*** FLOP *** [Kd 4s 3s]
*** TURN *** [Kd 4s 3s] [7h]
*** RIVER *** [Kd 4s 3s 7h] [5h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***

Reveal Spoiler

Poker.TL17: shows [Jd Jc] (a pair of Jacks)
ScotLib: shows [Jh Ac] (high card Ace)
Poker.TL17 collected 603212 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 603212 | Rake 0
Board [Kd 4s 3s 7h 5h]
Seat 1: dohy777 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 2: 123kid420 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 3: LukasProfeta folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 4: austinova (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 5: GoHsT921 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: part&parcel (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: Poker.TL17 showed [Jd Jc] and won (603212) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 9: ScotLib showed [Jh Ac] and lost with high card Ace

We are deep into the final 90 or so of the hot $3:30 which obviously has a pretty quick structure throughout – meaning I’m looking to take any spots that are available to me.

In this case UTG raises off 18bb, and I have no reads on him, having only played 11 hands with him so far. What range should we be shoving over him here? My initial thoughts looking back are A10s+, AJus+, 77+, and KQs? Am I going to wide and not giving enough respect to him being UTG with a lot of short stacks that he’s committed to call behind if they shove?

I’m still saving up for HRC otherwise I would run it through there.

DuckinDaDeck

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August 21, 2017 - 8:27 am

I think AJ is a little too loose here, even if suited. If we were only against a typical UTG+1 range (UTG 8-handed) and every other player at the table was guaranteed to fold, it would be profitable to shove AJ, but not by much.

99,AQs+,AK are very profitable shoves here, and AQo is doing a little better than break-even against most players.

If we assign villain a relatively tight (11.9%) open range, and have him calling with ~half of it (5.9%), then AQo is making about 1/10th of a bb by shoving. This assumes that the rest of the table gets in between 3.5 – 7.1% of hands after you shove (varied by stack size/posiition).

It’s a bit strange if you haven’t studied the numbers, but AQ and AJ are worlds apart in terms of their strength here. AJo needs UTG to call their shove with <4% of hands to turn a profit, while AQo is profitable regardless of what range villain calls with (assuming the 12% open range is correct). AQ is at its lowest EV (1/10 bb) when villain calls 5.9% of hands, but if he calls tighter or wider than that, the EV skyrockets.

If we give villain a 14.6% open range, and have him calling with 7.8% of hands, AJs becomes a breakeven shove, and 88 is winning almost 0.5 bb. AQ wins almost a full bb, and AQs wins more than 1.5 bb.

Unless villain is folding way too frequently after opening, we would need them to be opening 17.5% of hands and calling 11% for AJo to be breaking even, and that’s with the assumptions about the rest of the table playing fairly tight against our shove.

ScotFish

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August 21, 2017 - 3:28 pm

DuckinDaDeck said
I think AJ is a little too loose here, even if suited. If we were only against a typical UTG+1 range (UTG 8-handed) and every other player at the table was guaranteed to fold, it would be profitable to shove AJ, but not by much.

99,AQs+,AK are very profitable shoves here, and AQo is doing a little better than break-even against most players.

If we assign villain a relatively tight (11.9%) open range, and have him calling with ~half of it (5.9%), then AQo is making about 1/10th of a bb by shoving. This assumes that the rest of the table gets in between 3.5 – 7.1% of hands after you shove (varied by stack size/posiition).

It’s a bit strange if you haven’t studied the numbers, but AQ and AJ are worlds apart in terms of their strength here. AJo needs UTG to call their shove with <4% of hands to turn a profit, while AQo is profitable regardless of what range villain calls with (assuming the 12% open range is correct). AQ is at its lowest EV (1/10 bb) when villain calls 5.9% of hands, but if he calls tighter or wider than that, the EV skyrockets.

If we give villain a 14.6% open range, and have him calling with 7.8% of hands, AJs becomes a breakeven shove, and 88 is winning almost 0.5 bb. AQ wins almost a full bb, and AQs wins more than 1.5 bb.

Unless villain is folding way too frequently after opening, we would need them to be opening 17.5% of hands and calling 11% for AJo to be breaking even, and that’s with the assumptions about the rest of the table playing fairly tight against our shove.

Thank you! Analysis like this is what makes me really determined to get a hurry on and get HRC, I feel like my understanding of these spots is significantly off, and I’ve been making exploitive wide shoves at the lower levels which only work because they are raise folding off way to wide a range, which will become less common/less something I can assume without a read as I begin to play better opponents.

theginger45

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September 7, 2017 - 5:19 pm

HRC will definitely help with these spots. I think AJo is probably too wide here, AJs/KQs definitely close. It’s fine to be really tight in this spot, with a bunch of stacks behind us that probably have a threshold beyond which they’re never folding (nobody is folding TT+ or AQs+ here, I expect).

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