plugging this into holdem resources, it's a +$EV shove: HoldemResources.net Results

although that could change depending on the players left to act. like if you think there are players behind who are going to be calling really wide it might make this a fold, but i kind of doubt it.

if the table is super weak, and people aren't prone to 3bet light, then raise/fold could be better than shoving.

hard to say with the info given what's best.

i'd imagine that when casey says that he's in some HSMTT where restealing ranges are wide and raising a 15BB stack with the intention of folding is exploitable.

but to say that raise/folding a 15BB stack is bad period is just wrong, because i can very easily come up with a scenario where it isn't–i.e. we open AQs with 15BB and the biggest nit on earth shoves and we range him at KK+, then obviously calling would be bad.

i mean do the cEV calcs on raise/calling vs a range of like 88+, AQ and see if it's even +cEV. if it is, tweak the range to see where it becomes -cEV. keep in mind that with ICM you need higher equity to call it off, and make an educated guess as to whether it's more profitable to shove, raise/fold or raise/call here.

From UTG Im limp folding this to any real raises. You’re hand is strong but you are OOP under 20BB If a raise comes and the player seems light I may consider 3bet shove otherwise it’s a fold.

I believe since the whole table is pretty shallow and its the ft of a small buy tourny where more players are waiting to jump in prizes, minraising utg looks very strong and you'll pick up the blinds quite a lot as even the 'big' stack(s) wouldnt like to play back light and possibly get crippled or loose half their stack. If you get played back at it has to be something like 99+, AQ+ and even some of those hands will fold trying to creep up. So i see a lot of merrit in minraising here and folding if anybody reshoves, which wont happen that often.

if this is a +$EV play im guessing it is marginal

1 thing that ICM or end game tools dont take into account is future spots for hero

In this situation you have 3 short stacks to your left

Therefore you will almost certainly have future spots that are unexploitable from an ICM perspective

i agree with eske, id hate to raise fold here, and preserving FE would be beneficial

id open fold